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Year 2024, Issue: 76, 9 - 68, 12.11.2024

Alev Kılıç

Abstract

Bu incelemede Haziran-Ekim 2024 tarihleri döneminde Ermenistan’daki iç gelişmeler, dış ilişkiler, Azerbaycan ile barış sürecindeki gelişmeler ile Türkiye-Ermenistan arasındaki ilişkiler ve normalleşme süreci ele alınmaktadır.
Nikol Paşinyan yönetimi iç politikada; diasporanın radikal-militan kanadının, eski yönetimden yana dış güçlerin ve Kilisenin desteğine sahip aşırı ve yıkıcı bir muhalefetin karşısında geri adımlar atmak, bazı ifadelerini tevil etmek durumunda kalmıştır. Paşinyan’ın anayasa değişikliği konusundaki yaklaşımı bu bakımdan önemli bir gösterge olmuştur. Söylem değişikliğine gerekçe olan, Anayasa Mahkemesinin ayrıntılı kararında, Anayasa’nın ayrılmaz bir parçası olan Bağımsızlık Bildirgesi’nin bir yandan Azerbaycan bakımından bağlayıcı olmadığı ileri sürülürken, diğer taraftan Türkiye bakımından geçerli olduğu çelişkisine yer verilmiştir. Azerbaycan ile barış antlaşması sürecinde, Ermenistan, Azerbaycan’ın meşru endişelerini gidermeden, Azerbaycan’ın çıkarlarına ve kalıcı bir barışın ruhuna uymayan, sınırlı bir anlaşma imzalanması diretmesini özellikle Batılı ülkeler ve çevrelerden sağlamayı başardığı dış desteklerle sürdürmüştür. Bir yandan Azerbaycan’a barış ve uzlaşma elinin uzatılması diğer yandan, özellikle Batılı yandaşlar aracılığıyla, Karabağ konusunun gündemde tutulması, böylece Azerbaycan’ın saldırgan emellerle suçlanması, “tavşana kaç, tazıya tut” politikasının devam ettiğini göstermiştir.
Dış ilişkilerde hem Rusya’yı, hem Batı’yı idare etme çabası, bu suretle aynı anda iki ata binme veya iki ayrı sandalyede oturma politikası zaman içinde giderek güçleşerek devam etmiştir. Ermenistan güvenlik alanında açık biçimde Batı’ya yanaşılırken, Rusya ile köklü ekonomik bağlarda değişiklik olmamıştır. Rusya’ya uygulanan yaptırımların, Ermenistan tarafından, İran ile iş birliği içinde, ihlaline göz yumulması sonucu geçici de olsa gayrisafi milli gelirde önemli bir sıçrama kaydedilmiştir. Bölgede Rusya’nın etkisini azaltma konusunda Batı’yla anlayış birliği içinde olmakla beraber, bölgenin sorunlarının ancak bölge ülkelerinin iş birliği ile çözülebileceğini öngören 3+3 Platformu’nun dışında da kalınmamıştır. Ermenistan, Azerbaycan ile anlaşma sürecinin bu platformda sonuçlandırılması önerisini ise reddetmiştir. Türkiye ile ilişkilerde başlayan normalleşme süreci olumlu seyrini sürdürmüş, dönem içinde üst düzey temaslarda ve karşılıklı iletişimdeki artış karşılıklı yumuşamanın göstergesi olmuştur. Gürcistan’daki ve İran’daki gelişmeler Ermenistan bakımından Türkiye sınırının açılmasını acil zorunluluk haline getirmiş, kara ulaşımının yanı sıra demir yolu bağlantısı da öncelik kazanmıştır. Batı’nın da desteğiyle Türkiye üzerinde baskı oluşturma çabalarından geri durmayan Ermenistan, Türkiye’nin duyarlılığını bildiği konularda ise, ön koşul kavramına sığınarak, yapıcı bir adım atmaktan bu dönem içinde de kaçınmıştır. Aynı şekilde, Türkiye karşıtlığı bilinen veya Türkiye ile ilişkileri gerginleşen ülkelere yanaşma ve karşı denge kurma girişimleri de devamlılık göstermiştir. İlaveten, Ermenistan’ın Türkiye’ye karşı kemikleşmiş tutumu olan veya Türkiye ile konjektürel anlaşmazlıkları olan ülkeler ile olan beraber hareket etme girişimleri aralıksız devam etmiştir.

Keywords

Paşinyan, Mirzoyan, Rubinyan, Diaspora, Galstanyan, Putin, Lavrov, Zaharova, Biden, Blinken, Erdoğan, Fidan

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• “"Not A Single Millimeter of Armenian Territory is Up for Debate" - Pashinyan”, JamNews, 16 Eylül 2024, https://jam-news.net/not-a-single-millimeter-of-the-territory-of-armenia-is-up-for-debate-pashinyan/.
• “Our Goal is to Make Armenia-Diaspora Relations More İnstitutional and State-Oriented - PM”, ArmenPress, 20 Eylül 2024, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1200375.
• “Participation of the Foreign Minister of Armenia in the Warsaw Security Forum”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of The Republic of Armenia, 2 Ekim 2024, https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2024/10/02/Mirzoyan_WSF/12879.
• “Pashinyan Meets with Iran’s Khamenei in Tehran”, ArmenPress, 30 Temmuz 2024, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1196706.
• “Pashinyan, Lukashenko Meet During BRICS Summit”, ArmenPress, 25 Ekim 2024, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1203185.
• “Pashinyan’s Proposal Came to Life: “History of Armenia” Instead of “History of Armenians””, Media Max, 11 Temmuz 2024, https://mediamax.am/en/news/education/55246/.
• “PM Pashinyan Holds Meeting with Iranian President” ArmenPress, 24 Ekim 2024, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1203086.
• “Police Attempt to Stop Catholicos Karekin II from Visiting Sardarabad Monument”, Asbarez, 28 Mayıs 2024, https://asbarez.com/police-attempt-to-stop-catholicos-karekin-ii-from-visiting-sardarabad-monument/.
• “Political Consultations between The Foreign Ministries of Armenia And Ukraine”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of The Republic of Armenia, 17 Haziran 2024, https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2024/06/17/arm_ua_politicalconsultation/12697.
• “President Erdoğan Meets with PM Pashinyan of Armenia”, Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, 24 Eylül 2024, https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/news/542/153707/president-erdogan-meets-with-pm-pashinyan-of-armenia.
• “President Erdoğan, Prime Minister Pashinyan of Armenia Talk Over Phone”, Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye Directorate of Communications, 19 Haziran 2024, https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/englIsh/haberler/detay/president-erdogan-prime-minister-pashinyan-of-armenia-talk-over-phone.
• “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Working Visit to the French Republic”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 3 Ekim 2024, https://www.primeminister.am/en/foreign-visits/item/2024/10/03/Nikol-Pashinyan-visiting-France./.
• “Prime Minister on Erdogan's Statement Regarding Turkey's Participation in 44-day War”, Lurer, 31 Ağustos 2024, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2024/08/31/Prime-Minister-on-Erdogan-s-statement-regarding-Turkey-s-participation-in-44-day-war/1180037.
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Receives the Delegation Led by US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joshua Huck”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 20 Eylül 2024, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2024/09/20/Nikol-Pashinyan-meeting-20-09.
• Rabia İclal Turan, “Armenia Ready for ‘Full Normalization’ with Türkiye, Welcomes ‘Positive Dynamics’”, Anadolu Agency, 28 Eylül 2024, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/armenia-ready-for-full-normalization-with-turkiye-welcomes-positive-dynamics-/3344531#.
• “Ruben Rubinyan meets with U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joshua Huck”, Lurer, 20 Eylül 2024, https://lurer.com/article/596455/en?ysclid=m330n7a4nn40087561.
• “Russia Insists On Key Role In Armenian-Azeri Transport Links”, Azatutyun Radiokayan, 9 Ekim 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33152459.html.
• “Russian Envoy to Armenia Summoned to Moscow for Consultations — Foreign Ministry”, TASS, 24 Mayıs 2024, https://tass.com/politics/1792949.
• “SCO Secretary-General Meets with Foreign Minister of Armenia”, The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, 8 Haziran 2024, https://eng.sectsco.org/20240608/1388471.html.
• “Secretary Blinken’s Call with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan”, U.S Depertman of State, 13 Eylül 2024, https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-armenian-prime-minister-pashinyan-17/.
• Shoghik Galstian, “Garegin Warns Armenian Church’s Detractors In Mass Attended By Pashinian”, Azatutyun Radiokayan, 30 Eylül 2024,https://www.azatutyun.am/a/garegin-warns-armenian-church-s-detractors-in-mass-attended-by-pashinian/33140850.html.
• Shoghik Galstian, “Pashinian Again Calls For New Armenian Constitution”, Azatutyun Radiokayan, 5 Temmuz 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33023447.html.
• Shoghik Galstian, “Pashinian Calls Russian-Led Alliance Security Threat to Armenia”, Azatutyun Radiokayan, 18 Eylül 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33124969.html.
• Siranush Ghazanchyan, “ Armenia’s Foreign Policy “on The Right Track’ – PM”, Public Radio of Armenia, 2 Ekim 2024, https://en.armradio.am/2024/10/02/armenias-foreign-policy-on-the-right-track-pm/.
• Siranush Ghazanchyan, “Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Confirm Ratification of The Regulation on Joint Activity of Border Commissions”, Public Radio of Armenia, 25 Ekim 2024, https://en.armradio.am/2024/10/25/presidents-of-armenia-and-azerbaijan-confirm-ratification-of-the-regulation-on-joint-activity-of-border-commissions/.
• Siranush Ghazanchyan, “US Confirms Nuclear Pact with Armenia ‘Under Consideration’”, Public Radio of Armenia, 22 Ağustos 2024, https://en.armradio.am/2024/08/22/us-confirms-nuclear-pact-with-armenia-under-consideration-civilnet/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20has%20confirmed,written%20comments%20to%20CivilNet%20Tuesday.
• “Statement by The Foreign Minister of Armenia for The Press Following the Meeting with The Foreign Minister of Georgia”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia”, 3 Temmuz 2024, https://www.mfa.am/en/press-conference/2024/07/03/fms_armenia_georgia/12729.
• “Telephone Conversation between The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Armenia And Türkiye”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of The Republic of Armenia, 25 Haziran 2024, https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2024/06/25/mirzoyan_fidan/12712.
• “Tensions Continue to Rise Between Armenia, Belarus”, Azatutyun Radiokayan, 14 Haziran 2024,https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32993532.html.
• “The 12th Liturgy Was Held in the Armenian Holy Cross Church of Aghtamar Island, in Which the Delegation of Western Armenia also Participated”, Western Armenia TV, 10 Eylül 2024, https://westernarmeniatv.com/en/society_en/the-12th-liturgy-was-held-in-the-armenian-holy-cross-church-of-aghtamar-island-in-which-the-delegation-of-western-armenia-also-participated/.
• “The Congratulatory Message of President Vahagn Khachaturyan on The Adoption of The Declaration of Independence of Armenia”, The President of the Republic of Armenia, 23 Ağustos 2024, https://www.president.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2024/08/23/President-Vahagn-Khachaturyan/.
• “The Joint Armenia-U.S. Military Exercise "EAGLE PARTNER 2024"”, Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Armenia, 15 Temmuz 2024, https://mil.am/en/news/12290.
• “The meeting of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia and Ukraine”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of The Republic of Armenia,29 Haziran 2024, https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2024/06/29/Mirzoyan_Kuleba/12721.
• “The Meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Armenia and Türkiye”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia,18 Ekim 2024, https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2024/10/18/Mirzoyan_Fidan/12898.
• “The Prime Minister again Offered Azerbaijan to Sign The Peace Treaty”, Radar Armenia, 24 Ekim 2024, https://radar.am/en/news/politics-2659552253/#:~:text=RA%20Prime%20Minister%20Nikol%20Pashinyan,each%20other%20in%20the%20future.
• “The Start of The Two-Day Visit of The Foreign Minister of France to Armenia”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, 15 Eylül 2024, https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2024/09/15/sejourne_armenia_visit/12825.
• “The United States of America and the Republic of Armenia Sign a Memorandum of Understanding Concerning Civil Nuclear Cooperation”, U.S. Department of State, 2 Mayıs 2022, https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-of-america-and-the-republic-of-armenia-sign-a-memorandum-of-understanding-concerning-strategic-civil-nuclear-cooperation/.
• “Top U.S., Armenian Generals Meet in Washington”,Azatutyun Radiokayan, 17 Ekim 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33162699.html.
• “Trump Vows to Restore Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace if Elected, Slams Harris For Doing ‘Nothing’ During NK Ethnic Cleansing”, ArmenPress, 24 Ekim 2024, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1203077.
• Tuğba Altun, “Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Crucial for Caucasus Stability, Says Turkish Intelligence Chief”, Anadolu Agency, 17 Eylül 2024, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-peace-crucial-for-caucasus-stability-says-turkish-intelligence-chief/3332315.
• “Turkey Not Implementing Agreement on Border Opening with Armenia”, Asbarez, 11 Haziran 2024, https://asbarez.com/turkey-not-implementing-agreement-on-border-opening-with-armenia/.
• “Turkey's Normalization of Relations with Armenia Will Contribute to Azerbaijan Acting More Constructively in Negotiations: Ambassador Mkrtchyan's Interview with Financial Mirror”, ArmenPress, 28 Haziran 2024, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1194704.
• “U.S. ‘Investigates’ Karabakh Exodus to Decide if it’s Ethnic Cleansing”, The California Courier, 11 Temmuz 2024, https://www.thecaliforniacourier.com/u-s-investigates-karabakh-exodus-to-decide-if-its-ethnic-cleansing/.
• “U.S. Hosts Key Meeting Between Armenia and Azerbaijan in New York”, The Armenian Report, 26 Eylül 2024, https://en.armradio.am/2024/10/25/presidents-of-armenia-and-azerbaijan-confirm-ratification-of-the-regulation-on-joint-activity-of-border-commissions/.
• “U.S. Launches New Department to Liaise with Local Governments in Armenia”, Asbarez, 17 Haziran 2024, https://www.asbarez.com/u-s-launches-new-department-to-liaise-with-local-governments-in-armenia/.
• “U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a phone call to the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev”, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 16 Eylül 2024, https://president.az/en/articles/view/66844.
• “UK Foreign Secretary Says Azerbaijan ‘Liberated’ Nagorno-Karabakh; Yerevan Reportedly Seeks Clarification from Foreign Office”, Asbarez, 20 Eylül 2024, https://www.asbarez.com/uk-foreign-secretary-says-azerbaijan-liberated-nagorno-karabakh-yerevan-reportedly-seeks-clarification-from-foreign-office/.
• “Unacceptable to Single Out One Article When Others Are Unfulfilled, PM Pashinyan Says on 2020 Trilateral Statement”, ArmenPress, 12 Ekim 2024, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1202121.
• “Under Secretary Zeya’s Travel to Georgia and Armenia”, U.S. Department of State, 10 Temmuz 2024, https://www.state.gov/under-secretary-zeyas-travel-to-georgia-and-armenia/.
• “Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijani Constitution Indeed Contains Territorial Claims – PM”, ArmenPress, 31 Ağustos 2024, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1198730.
• “US First Deputy Secretary of State to Visit Armenia”, Caliber, 14 Haziran 2024, https://caliber.az/en/post/us-first-deputy-secretary-of-state-to-visit-armenia.
• “USAID Head to Visit Armenia”, ED News, 8 Temmuz 2024, https://ednews.net/en/news/world/669040-usaid-head-to-visit-armenia.
• “USAID to Increase Assistance to Armenia to $250 Million”, Report News Agency, 11 Eylül 2024, https://report.az/en/region/usaid-to-increase-assistance-to-armenia-to-250-million/.
• “Vice President Kamala Harris Commemorates Armenian Independence Day” , The Armenian Weekly, 24 Eylül 2024, https://armenianweekly.com/2024/09/24/vice-president-kamala-harris-commemorates-armenian-independence-day/.
• “Working visit of the President Vahagn Khachaturyan to Turkmenistan”, The President of the Republic of Armenia, 10 Ekim 2024, https://www.president.am/en/foreign-visits/item/2024/10/10/President-Vahagn-Khachaturyans-working-visit-t-Turkmenistan/.
• “‘Zangezur Corridor’ is a fake corridor - Ebrahim Azizi”, ArmenPress, 7 September 2024, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1199273.
• “‘Zangezur Corridor’: Details of the Negotiations Revealed”, AzeMedia, 29 Ağustos 2024, https://aze.media/zangezur-corridor-details-of-the-negotiations-revealed/.
• “‘3+3’ Bölgesel İşbirliği Platformu Üçüncü Toplantısı Ortak Bildirisi, 18 Ekim 2024”, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Dışişleri Bakanlığı, 18 Ekim 2024, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/3-3-bolgesel-isbirligi-platformu-ucuncu-toplantisi-ortak-bildirisi-18-ekim-2024.tr.mfa.
• “2023 Թվականի Դեկտեմբերի 25-Ին Սանկտ Պետերբուրգում Ստորագրված «Եվրասիական Տնտեսական Միության Եվ Դրա Անդամ Պետությունների՝ Մի Կողմից, Եվ Իրանի Իսլամական Հանրապետության՝ Մյուս Կողմից, Միջեվ Ազատ Առեվտրի Մասին Համաձայնագրում Ամրագրված Պարտավորությունների` Սահմանադրությանը Համապատասխանության Հարցը Որոշելու Վերաբերյալ Գործով”, Հայաստանի ՀանրապետությանՍահմանադրական Դատարան, 27 Eylül 2024, https://www.concourt.am/decision/decisions/66f6b93924413_sdv-1750.pdf.
• “946,162 Foreign Tourists Visited Armenia in First Half of 2024”, MassisPost, 7 Ağustos 2024, https://massispost.com/2024/08/946162-foreign-tourists-visited-armenia-in-first-half-of-2024/.
• “Անկախության հռչակագրի և ՀՀ Սահմանադրության բովանդակությունները նույնական չեն․ Փաշինյան”, Azatutyun Radiokayan, 23 Ağustos 2024, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/ankakhoutyan-hrchakagri-ev-hh-sahmanadrutyan-bovandakutyunnery-nuynakan-chen-pashinyan/33089529.html.