TESTING THE NEUTRALITY OF MONEY HYPOTHESIS FOR TURKEY

Year 2020, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 475 - 488, 31.12.2020

Mustafa Orhan Özer

Abstract

In this study, the existence of a long-run relationship between the real GDP and money supply (M1, M2, M3) is tested for Turkey for the period between 1998:Q1-2018:Q3 using quarterly data. The stationary of variables is examined by Fourier ADF unit root test, and it is determined that all of them stationary at the first differences. Then, the Fourier ADL cointegration test is run to investigate the long-run relationship between variables. The analysis showed that monetary expansion does not affect the real economic activity, and the neutrality of money hypothesis is valid in Turkey.

Keywords

Economic Growth, Fourier Approach, Money Supply, The Neutrality of Money Hypothesis

PARANIN YANSIZLIĞI HİPOTEZİNİN TÜRKİYE İÇİN SINANMASI

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de reel GSYİH ile M1, M2 ve M3 para arzı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı 1998:Q1-2018:Q3 dönemine ait üç aylık veriler kullanılarak sınanmıştır. Değişkenlerin durağanlık durumları Fourier ADF birim kök testi ile incelenmiş ve hepsinin birinci farkı alındığında durağan hale geldiği tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra, değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi araştırmak amacıyla Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda, parasal genişlemenin reel ekonomik aktivite üzerinde etkili olmadığı ve Türkiye’de paranın yansızlığı hipotezinin geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme, Fourier Yaklaşımı, Para Arzı, Paranın Yansızlığı Hipotezi

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