EXAMINING THE EFFECTS OF TRADE WARS ON THE USA

Year 2024, Volume: 23 Issue: 89, 344 - 358, 09.01.2024

Zeynep Karaş , Ömercan Kara

https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.1383597

Abstract

TİCARET SAVAŞLARININ ABD ÜZERİNE OLAN ETKİLERİNİN İNCELENMESİ

Abstract

Ticaret savaşlarının kökeni çok eski zamanlara dayanmaktadır. Tarihte birçok uygarlık, farklı uygarlıklarla yaptıkları ticaretlerde çeşitli gümrük vergileri ve kotalar uygulamıştır. Bu uygulamalar, ticaret savaşlarının ilk örnekleri olarak düşünülebilir. Ancak ‘Ticaret Savaşları'’ kavramının gündem olmasının, Donald Trump’ın 2016 seçimlerinde ABD Başkanı olması ile başladığı söylenebilir. Trump, ABD'nin Çin’e karşı var olan ticaret açığını neden göstererek ve ABD'li üreticileri Çin menşeili ürünlerin damping etkisinden korumak için 2017- 2018 yıllarında Kongreden bazı gümrük tarifesi yasaları, kota ve ithalat-ihracat denetimi yasaları geçirmiştir. Bu durum ABD bürokrasisi ve kamuoyu nezdinde tartışmalara neden olmuştur. Ayrıca, bu yasalar ABD'li üretici ve tüketici kesim üzerinde de bazı olumsuz etkiler oluşturmuştur. Üreticiler önemli üretim ve kar kayıpları yaşamış ve tüketicilerin satın alma gücü azalmıştır. 2019 yılı sonlarında ortaya çıkan COVID-19 pandemisi ile beraber ABD ve Çin arasındaki ticaret savaşı, yeni bir safhaya girmiştir. Ayrıca, iki ülke arasında yaşanan ticaret savaşı küresel resesyon beklentilerinin ana basamaklarından birini oluşturmuştur.
Bu çalışmada, ABD ve Çin arasında yaşanan ticaret savaşlarının ABD’ye olan etkisi, ABD’li tüketicilerin ve üreticilerin ticaret savaşlarından ne kadar etkilendiği, COVID-19 salgınının ABD ekonomisine yansımaları ile ABD bürokrasisinin ticaret savaşlarına yönelik tepkisi ve ticaret savaşlarının seyri incelenecek olup; ticaret savaşları bağlamında başta ülkemiz olmak üzere diğer ülkeler açısından bazı çıkarımlarda bulunulacaktır.

Keywords

Ticaret Savaşları, ABD, Çin, COVID-19

References

• Amiti M., Redding, J. & Weinstein D.(2019). The Impact of The 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices And Welfare, Centre for Economic Policy Research. 02 March 2019. Bekkers, E. Schroeter,S. (2020), An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict, No ERSD-2020-04, WTO Staff Working Papers, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
• Benjamin, E. (2021). Trump, the Coronavirus Pandemic, Asian American Xenophobia, and Humanistic Psychology. Journal of Humanistic Psychology, 61(2): 244-259. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022167820979650
• BIS (2022). Commerce Implements New Export Controls on Advanced Computing and Semiconductor Manufacturing Items to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) , US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security. Press Release. https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10- 07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file. Erişim Tarihi: 29/10/2023.
• Bown, C. P. (2020). Trump's trade policy is hampering the US fight against COVID-19, Peterson Institute for International Economics, https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and- investment-policy-watch/trumps-trade-policy-hampering-us-fight-against-covid-19 Erişim Tarihi: 20/10/2023.
• Chad P. B., Irwin, D.A. (2019). Trump's Assault on the Global Trading System and Why Decoupling From China Will Change Everything, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2019, Volume 98, Number 5:124-136.
• Chow,D.C.K, Sheldon, I.M. (2021). Understanding the Economic and Political Effects of Trump's China Tariffs, 12 Wm. & Mary Bus. L. Rev. 273 (2021).
• CNBC, 2020. Trumps Tariffs on China Could Cost Us In Its Fight Against Coronavirus, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/trumps-tariffs-on-china-could-cost-us-in-its-fight- against-coronavirus.html Erişim Tarihi: 28/10/2023.
• CRS (2019). China’s Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture: In Brief , Congressional Research Service, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45929. Erişim Tarihi: 29/10/2023.
• CRS (2021). Global Economic Effects of COVID-19, Congressional Research Service, R46270, November 10,2021.
• Electonicspecifier (2019). Impact of the continuing US China Trade War. https://www.electronicspecifier.com/news/analysis/impact-of-the-continuing-us- china-trade-war . Erişim Tarihi: 22/10/2023.
• Fajgelbaum, P., Khandelwal, A. (2021).The Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 29315, December 2021.
• Fed (2019). Challenges for Monetary Policy, Press Release. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20190823a.htm Erişim Tarihi: 20/10/2023.
• Felbermayr, G., Steininger, M. (2019). Trump’s trade attack on China − who will have the last laugh? CESifo Forum 20(1): 27-32.
• Goldman Sachs (2019). Trade Wars 3.0. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/top-of-mind/trade-wars-3.0/report.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 20/10/2023.
• Google Finance (2023). S&P 500 Index Chart. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP Erişim Tarihi: 23/10/2023.
• Handfield, R.B, Graham, G. & Burns, L (2020) Coronavirus, Tariffs, Trade Wars and Supply Chain Evolutionary Design. International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 40 (10):1649-1660.
• Lau, L.J. (2020). The Impacts of the Trade War and the COVID-19 Epidemic on China-U.S. Economic Relations, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance, Working Paper No. 80, August 2020.
• NBR (2022). U.S.-China Intellectual Property Issues in a Post-Phase-One Era. The National Bureau of Asian Research. https://www.nbr.org/publication/u-s-china-intellectual- property-issues-in-a-post-phase-one-era/. Erişim Tarihi: 29/10/2023.
• Oxfordeconomics (2021). CGTN Interview: Trump’s trade war with China has cost up to 245,000 U.S. jobs. https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/trumps-trade-war- with-china-has-cost-us-jobs/ Erişim Tarihi: 20/10/2023.
• Rabobank (2020). Decoupling US-China supply chains: High tech on the move. https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/d011301486-decoupling-us-china- supply- chains-high-tech-on-the-move Erişim Tarihi: 28/10/2023
• SHADAC (2022). 2020 U.S. alcohol-involved deaths climbed by 26.6%, and drug overdose deaths by 30.6%. https://www.shadac.org/news/alcohol-and-drug-deaths-grew-2020 Erişim Tarihi:24/10/2023.
• TradingView (2023). NASDAQ Index Chart. https://tr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3AAAPL Erişim Tarihi: 23/10/2023.
• UCSD (2020). Global Coronavirus Challenge Calls for U.S.-China Cooperation, University of California San Diego, https://today.ucsd.edu/story/global-coronavirus-challenge-calls- for-u.s-china-cooperation , April 09,2020. Erişim Tarihi: 29/10/2023.
• USCBC (2021).The US-China Business Council. The US-China Economic Relationship: A Crucial Partnership at a Critical Juncture. https://www.uschina.org/sites/default/files/the_us- china_economic_relationship_-_a_crucial_partnership_at_a_critical_juncture.pdf. Erişim Tarihi: 29/10/2023.
• Vipress (2019). La Guerre Commerciale, USA-Chine Ne Profite ni Aux Etats-Unis, ni a la Chine. https://vipress.net/la-guerre-commerciale-usa-chine-ne-profite-ni-aux-etats-unis-ni-a- la-chine/ Erişim Tarihi: 21/10/2023.
• Washington Post (2019). Trump’s trade war comes for consumers: Tariffs could cost U.S. families up to $1,000 a year, JPMorgan forecasts. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/20/trumps-trade-war-comes- consumers- tariffs-will-cost-us-families-year-jp-morgan-forecasts/. Erişim Tarihi: 29/10/2023.
• White House (2023). Statement from President Joe Biden on H.R. 4004, the United States- Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade First Agreement Implementation Act. August 7, 2023.
• World Bank, (2023). United States Inflation Rate Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGend=2018&locations=US&na me_desc=true&start=2018. Erişim Tarihi: 29/10/2023.
• X.com (2018). https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1069970500535902208, 04 Aralık 2018.
• X.com (2019). https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1164914610836783104, 23 Ağustos 2019.
• X.com (2020). https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1239685852093169664, 17 Mart 2020.