Investigation of The Relationship Between Gold, Dollars, Euro Exchange Rates And Housing Sales:A Study with Granger Causality Analysis

Year 2021, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 169 - 193, 01.10.2021

Nurgün Komşuoğlu Yılmaz

Abstract

As it is known, the currencies of the countries have first been linked to gold prices and dollars at certain rates, and then the free exchange rate system has started. However, the transition to free exchange rate system does not mean that there is no relationship between gold and currencies. In addition, real estate sales also constitute an investment alternative, and there seems to be a relationship between the number of housing sales, gold and the Dollar and the Euro.
The aim of this study is to investigate whether there is a causal relationship between investment instruments like gold prices, US dollar rate, Euro exchange rate, mortgage and other real estate sales. Within the scope of the study, monthly data including the value of Dollar and Euro in Turkish Lira were used with the gold ounce price of January 2013 - November 2018 period. The data of the variables were analyzed by Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. After the variables were stabilized, Granger causality test was used to test the existence of causality relationship between the variables. Firstly, as a result of the analysis, it was determined that Euro / TL was the Dollar / TL unilateral cause. Besides, the other home sales were the cause of the mortgage house sales and the Gold prices were the cause of the USD / TL dependent variable.

Keywords

Investment Alternatives, Real Estate Sales, Granger Casualty Analysis, Gold, Dollar

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