RETHINKING THE PHILLIPS CURVE IN TÜRKİYE: NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE FREQUENCY DOMAIN

Year 2024, , 107 - 114, 30.06.2024

Veysel Karagöl

https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.1420002

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the short- and long-run relationship between the inflation rate, which has come to the fore after a long break all over the world, and the unemployment rate for the Turkish economy. For this purpose, the relationship between the two variables is analyzed using a causality test in the frequency domain, with monthly data for the period 2005:01-2023:03. The symmetric findings of the test indicate the existence of a unidirectional and short-run causal relationship from unemployment to inflation. The asymmetric findings of the test provide two important pieces of evidence. The first of these is the existence of a unidirectional and long-run causal relationship from the positive component of unemployment to the negative component of inflation. The second is the existence of a unidirectional, short- and long-run causal relationship from the negative component of unemployment to the positive component of inflation. These findings confirm the trade-off predicted by the Phillips Curve. It is also important for policymakers to try to increase productivity by making structural and institutional reforms in the labor market, as far as settling for a moderate inflation rate while struggling with inflation and unemployment problems.

Keywords

Inflation, Unemployment, Phillips Curve, Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality in the Frequency Domain

TÜRKİYE’DE PHILLIPS EĞRİSİNİ YENİDEN DÜŞÜNMEK: FREKANS ALANINDAN YENİ KANITLAR

Abstract

Bu çalışma, tüm dünyada uzun bir aranın ardından yeniden gündeme gelen enflasyon oranı ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiyi Türkiye ekonomisi için araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, iki değişken arasındaki ilişki, 2005:01-2023:03 dönemine ait aylık bazda verilerle, frekans alanında nedensellik testi aracılığıyla analiz edilmiştir. Testin simetrik bulguları, işsizlikten enflasyona doğru tek yönlü ve kısa dönemli bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Testin asimetrik bulguları ise iki önemli kanıt sağlamıştır. Bunlardan ilki, işsizliğin pozitif bileşeninden enflasyonun negatif bileşenine doğru tek yönlü ve uzun dönemli bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığıdır. İkincisi ise işsizliğin negatif bileşeninden enflasyonun pozitif bileşenine doğru tek yönlü ve kısa ve uzun dönemli bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığıdır. Bu bulgular, Phillips eğrisinin öngördüğü ödünleşimi doğrulamaktadır. Politika yapıcılar için enflasyon ve işsizlik sorunlarıyla mücadele ederlerken, makul bir enflasyona razı olmak kadar, işgücü piyasasında yapısal ve kurumsal reformlar yaparak verimliliği artırmaya çalışmak da önemlidir.

Keywords

Enflasyon, İşsizlik, Phillips Eğrisi, Frekans Alanında Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik

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