KÜÇÜK DIŞA AÇIK EKONOMİLERDE MAKRO FİNANSAL ŞOKLAR VE PARA POLİTİKALARININ ETKİNLİĞİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2019, , 459 - 472, 31.12.2019

K. Batu Tunay , Necla Tunay

https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.541419

Abstract

Dışa bağlılıkları giderek
artan yükselen ekonomilerin, dış kaynaklı şokların etkilerine daha açık hale
geldikleri görülmektedir. Bu tür şoklar genellikle finansal varlık ve emtia
fiyatlarındaki artışlardan ileri gelir ve hassas ekonomik dengeleri olan küçük
dışa açık ekonomileri derinden sarsabilirler. Yerel finans sisteminde
çalkantılar, çıktı düzeyinde düşüşler, enflasyon ve işsizlik oranlarının
artması gibi etkiler gözlenebilir. Merkez bankaları şoklara karşı genellikle
faiz oranları ile müdahale etmektedir. Dolayısıyla dış kaynaklı makro ekonomik
ve finansal şoklara karşı merkez bankası müdahalelerinin etkinliği giderek daha
fazla tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. Bu çalışmada basit bir Yeni Keynesyen model
üzerinden küçük dışa açık bir ekonomi olan Türkiye’de şoklara karşı para
politikalarının etkinliği sorgulanmaktadır. Clarida vd. (1999) modeli finansal
istikrarı içerecek şekilde geliştirilmiş ve temel varsayımları bir SVAR modeli
üzerinden sınanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular makro ekonomik ve finansal şokların
güçlü karşılıklı etkileşimleri olduğunu göstermektedir. Finansal sistemin
istikrarının en az fiyat istikrarı kadar önemli olduğu, merkez bankasının faiz
oranları yoluyla çıktı düzeyi, enflasyon ve kredi açığını yönlendirebileceği
belirlenmiştir. Ancak faiz oranlarının çıktı üzerindeki etkilerinin diğer
değişkenlere oranla daha kısa sürdüğü saptanmıştır.

Keywords

Dış Şoklar, Parasal ve Finansal İstikrar, SVAR Modelleri

Macro Financial Shocks and Efficiency of Monetary Policies in Small Open Economies: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

It is seen that the
emerging economies that the increasing their external dependency become more
open to the effects of external shocks. Such shocks are often caused by
increases in the financial assets and commodity prices and deeply affect the
small open economies with sensitive economic balances. Fluctuations in the
local financial system, declines in output levels, increases in inflation and
unemployment rates may be observed. Central banks often interfere with interest
rates against shocks. Therefore, the effectiveness of central bank
interventions against external macroeconomic and financial shocks has been
increasingly discussed. In this study, the effectiveness of monetary policy
against to external shocks in Turkey which is a small open economy will be
questioned based on a simple New Keynesian model. Clarida et al. (1999) model
was developed to include financial stability and its basic assumptions were
tested on a SVAR model. The findings show that macroeconomic and financial
shocks have strong interactions. It is determined that the stability of the
financial system is important at least as price stability, and that the central
bank can direct output, inflation and credit deficit through interest rates.
However, the effects of interest rates on output were found to be shorter than
other variables.

Keywords

External Shocks, Monetary and Financial Stability, SVAR Models

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