Karadeniz Bölgesine Gelen Yabancı Turistlerin Talebinin Belirleyicileri : Ampirik Bir Analiz

Year 2020, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 539 - 545, 30.09.2020

Ashfak Ahmad Khan

https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.787239

Abstract

Türkiye, önemli küresel turizm destinasyonları arasında yer almaktadır. Bu çalışma, Karadeniz Bölgesi’ne yönelik yabancı turistlerin turizm talebine yönelik belirleyicilik özelliklerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bölgeye gelen yabancı turist sayıları ile çeşitli ekonomik faktörler arasındaki ilişkiyi test etmek amacıyla bir panel veri yaklaşımı kullanmıştır. Açıklayıcı değişkenler arasında GSYİH, reel döviz kuru, satın alma gücü pariteleri bulunmaktadır. Araştırma sonuçları, bölgeye gelen yabancı turist sayısıile GSYİH ve nüfusu arasında bağlantı olduğunu ortaya çıkarmıştır. Ancak Karadeniz Bölgesine gelen yabancı turist sayısı ile reel döviz kuru ve satın alma gücü pariteleri arasında etkileşim anlamlı çıkmamıştır. Bulgular, turistlerin talebinde etki eden farklı sosyoekonomik ve politik faktörleri test etmek için daha fazla araştırma yapılması gerektiğini ortaya çıkarmıştır.

Keywords

Turizm, Turizm talebi, Panel Veri Yaklaşımı, Karadeniz Bölgesi

Determinants of the Inbound Tourism in Black Sea Region: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

Turkey is among the most important global tourist destinations with a significant share of tourism in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study aims to analyse the determinants of inbound tourism demand in the Black Sea Region of Turkey. A panel data approach is used to test the relationship between inbound tourist arrivals and various economic factors. The explanatory variables include GDP, real exchange rate, purchasing power parities and population. The results revealed GDP and population as significant determinants of inbound tourism development in the region. However, the real exchange rate and purchasing power parities did not prove significant in the findings. The findings highlight the need for further studies at the regional level to test different socioeconomic and political factors involved in the development of tourism.

Keywords

Tourism, Tourism Demand, Panel Data Approach, Black Sea Region

References

• Arslantürk, Yalçın, and Sibel Atan. 2012. “Dynamic Relation Between Economic Growth, Foreign Exchange and Tourism Incomes: An Econometric Perspective on Turkey ” Journal of Business, Economics and Finance 1: 30–37.
• Baldigara, Tea, and Maja Mamula. 2015. “Modelling International Tourism Demand Using Seasonal Arima Models.” Tourism and Hospitality Management 21(1): 1–31.
• Barbhuiya, Mahfuzuar Rahman, and Devlina Chatterjee. 2020. “Vulnerability and Resilience of the Tourism Sector in India : Effects of Natural Disasters and Internal Conflict.” Tourism Management Perspectives 33(October 2019): 100616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2019.100616.
• Brida, Juan Gabriel, Isabel Cortes-Jimenez, and Manuela Pulina. 2016. “Has the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Been Validated? A Literature Review.” Current Issues in Tourism 19(5): 394–430.
• Cheng, Li, and Jun Zhang. 2020. “Current Issues in Tourism Is Tourism Development a Catalyst of Economic Recovery Following Natural Disaster ? An Analysis of Economic Resilience and Spatial Variability.” Current Issues in Tourism 0(0): 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1711029.
• Crouch, G. I. (1995). “A Meta-analysis of Tourism Demand.” Annals of Tourism Research, 22 (1): 103-18.
• Cuccia, Tiziana, Calogero Guccio, and Ilde Rizzo. 2016. “The Effects of UNESCO World Heritage List Inscription on Tourism Destinations Performance in Italian Regions.” Economic Modelling 53: 494–508. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.049.
• Dincer, Mithat Zeki, Fusun Istanbullu Dincer, and Murat Ustaoglu. 2015. “Reel Effective Exchange Rate Volatilities Impact on Tourism Sector in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis of 2003-2014.” Procedia Economics and Finance 23(October 2014): 1000–1008. http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212567115003524.
• Dogru, Tarik, Ercan Sirakaya-Turk, and Geoffrey I. Crouch. 2017. “Remodeling International Tourism Demand: Old Theory and New Evidence.” Tourism Management 60: 47–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2016.11.010.
• Feridun, Mete. 2011. “Impact of Terrorism on Tourism in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from Turkey.” Applied Economics 43(24): 3349–54.
• Göymen, Korel. 2000. “Tourism and Governance in Turkey.” Annals of Tourism Research 27(4): 1025–48.
• Gozgor, Giray, Ender Demir, and Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin. 2017. “The Effects of the Military in Politics on the Inbound Tourism: Evidence from Turkey.” Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research 22(8): 885–93. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2017.1343196.
• Gunduz, Lokman, and Abdulnasser Hatemi-J. 2005. “Is the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey?” Applied Economics Letters 12(8): 499–504.
• Habibi, Fateh. 2017. “The Determinants of Inbound Tourism to Malaysia: A Panel Data Analysis.” Current Issues in Tourism 20(9): 909–30.
• Harris, R., & Sollis, R. (2003). Applied time series modelling and forecasting. Chichester: Wiley.
• Katircioglu, Salih Turan. 2014. “International Tourism, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Pollution: The Case of Turkey.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 36: 180–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.058.
• KHAN, Ashfak Ahmad. 2020. “Türkiye’nin Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesine Gelen Turistlerin Projeksiyonları.” Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi 18: 85–98.
• Khan, Ashfaq Ahmad. 2018. “The Spatial Distribution and Relationship of Tourist Flow in Turkey.” European Journal of Tourism Research 19: 40–55.
• Lee, Jung Wan, and Tantatape Brahmasrene. 2013. “Investigating the Influence of Tourism on Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Panel Analysis of the European Union.” Tourism Management 38: 69–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.02.016.
• Lim, Christine, and Michael McAleer. 2002. “A Cointegration Analysis of Annual Tourism Demand by Malaysia for Australia.” Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 59(1–3): 197–205.
• Lim, C. (1997). “Review of International Tourism Demand Models.” Annals of Tourism Research, 24 (4): 835-49.
• Malaj, Visar, and Soultana Tania Kapiki. 2016. “Determinants of Tourism Flows to Greece: A Gravity Model Approach.” Tourismos 11(2): 202–24.
• Martins, Luís Filipe, Yi Gan, and Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes. 2017. “An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Macroeconomic Determinants on World Tourism Demand.” Tourism Management 61: 248–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.008.
• Mendola, Daria, and Serena Volo. 2017. “Building Composite Indicators in Tourism Studies: Measurements and Applications in Tourism Destination Competitiveness.” Tourism Management 59: 541–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2016.08.011.
• Morley, Clive, Jaume Rosselló, and Maria Santana-Gallego. 2014. “Gravity Models for Tourism Demand: Theory and Use.” Annals of Tourism Research 48: 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2014.05.008.
• Nor, M. E., A. I.M. Nurul, and M. S. Rusiman. 2018. “A Hybrid Approach on Tourism Demand Forecasting.” Journal of Physics: Conference Series 995(1).
• Önder, A. Özlem, Aykan Candemir, and Neşe Kumral. 2009. “An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of International Tourism Demand: The Case of Izmir.” European Planning Studies 17(10): 1525–33. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09654310903141748.
• Örsal, D. D. K. (2008). Comparison of panel cointegration tests. Economics Bulletin, 3(6), 1–20.
• Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597–625. doi:10.1017/S0266466604203073
• Peng, Bo, Haiyan Song, Geoffrey I. Crouch, and Stephen F. Witt. 2015. “A Meta-Analysis of International Tourism Demand Elasticities.” Journal of Travel Research 54(5): 611–33.
• Rosselló-Nadal, Jaume, and Jianan HE. 2019. “Tourist Arrivals versus Tourist Expenditures in Modelling Tourism Demand.” Tourism Economics. Seetaram, Neelu, Peter Forsyth, and Larry Dwyer. 2016. “Measuring Price Elasticities of Demand for Outbound Tourism Using Competitiveness Indices.” Annals of Tourism Research 56: 65–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2015.10.004.
• Shahbaz, Muhammad, Ronald Ravinesh Kumar, Stanislav Ivanov, and Nanthakumar Loganathan. 2017. “The Nexus between Tourism Demand and Output per Capita with the Relative Importance of Trade Openness and Financial Development: A Study of Malaysia.” Tourism Economics 23(1): 168–86.
• Soybali, Hasan Huseyin. 2005. “Temporal and Spatial Aspects of Tourism in Turkey.” (March). http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?did=15&uin=uk.bl.ethos.417787.
• Su, Yu Wen, and Hui Lin Lin. 2014. “Analysis of International Tourist Arrivals Worldwide: The Role of World Heritage Sites.” Tourism Management 40: 46–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.04.005.
• Tang, Chor Foon, and Eu Chye Tan. 2013. “How Stable Is the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia? Evidence from Disaggregated Tourism Markets.” Tourism Management 37: 52–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.12.014.
• Tavares, Jean Max, and Nuno Carlos Leitao. 2017. “The Determinants of International Tourism Demand for Brazil.” Tourism Economics 23(4): 834–45.
• Tosun, Cevat. 2001. “Challenges of Sustainable Tourism Development in the Developing World: The Case of Turkey.” Tourism Management 22(3): 289–303.
• Tsui, Wai Hong Kan, and Faruk Balli. 2017. “International Arrivals Forecasting for Australian Airports and the Impact of Tourism Marketing Expenditure.” Tourism Economics 23(2): 403–28.
• Viljoen, Armand, Andrea Saayman, and Melville Saayman. 2019. “Determinants Influencing Inbound Arrivals to Africa.” Tourism Economics 25(6): 856–83.
• Wang, Huiling, and Junmin Xi. 2016. “The Determinant of Inbound Tourism in China.” International Journal of Business and Management 11(2): 205.
• Yerdelen Tatoglu, Ferda, and Hasan Gul. 2019. “Analysis of Tourism Demand Using a Multi-Dimensional Panel Gravity Model.” Tourism Review 75(2): 433–47.
• Yilmaz, Engin. 2015. “Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Turkey.” Tourism 63(4): 435–45.
• Zaman, Khalid, Muhammad Shahbaz, Nanthakumar Loganathan, and Syed Ali Raza. 2016. “Tourism Development, Energy Consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate Analysis in the Panel of Developed and Developing Countries.” Tourism Management 54: 275–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.12.001.