Determination of the Best Forecast System for the Prediction of the Tomato Late Blight in the Field Tomato Growings of Balıkesir and Çanakkale provinces

Year 2014, Volume: 43 Issue: 1-2-3, 25 - 44, 29.12.2014

M. Hadi Aydın Nedim Altın , M. ERHAN Göre , Zafer Uçkun

Abstract

A large number of late blight forecasting models
exist and are currently used in many tomato and potato production areas
throughout the World. The use of forecast systems to predict disease has the
potential of reducing fungicide applications without reducing yield. This study
carried out in the tomato growing areas of Balıkesir (Merkez, Manyas, Susurluk)
and Çanakkale (Batak ovası) provinces between the years of 2006-2010. In the
region where the automatic weather stations were located no fungicide
applications were carried out in the control tomato fields until the occurrence
of the first symptoms of the disease on the plants. Surveys were carried out
once and sometimes twice a week  to
determine  the occurence of the first
symptoms of the disease. Comparisons were made between the predictions  of the 
model and the actual date of the occurence of the  blight late in the field ,with aim to verify
the suitibility of the tested  model. In
study had used SMITH, Fry Phytophtora Unit, IPI, TOMCAST and Tomcast model was
used with modification as named modified
TOMCAST forecasting models which are predict infection conditions of tomato
late blight, caused by Phytophthora
infestans. These models were compared between the actual date when blight
was found in the crop and predict infection date of these models. Thus, The
most appropriate models were determined according to study
areas. After result of study, modified TOMCAST model were found to be the
suitable at Balıkesir regions. and SMITH model were found to be the suitable at
Çanakkale regions.

Keywords

Late blight, Tomato, Forecast Models

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