ANALYZING COAL CONSUMPTION IN CHINA: FORECASTING WITH THE ECFGM(1, 1) MODEL AND A PERSPECTIVE ON THE FUTURE

Year 2024, , 45 - 53, 13.09.2024

Ümmügülsüm Erdinç , Halis Bilgil

https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.1458131

Abstract

The study analyzes coal consumption using the ECFGM(1, 1) model by utilizing time series data provided by the Statistical Review of World Energy for the years 2016-2019. The optimal α value, determined using the Brute Force Algorithm, is utilized to establish the model’s parameters and formulate the solution function. Subsequently, the model’s predictive accuracy is assessed using data from the years 2020-2022, with the resulting Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) reflecting the model’s overall performance.

Keywords

Coal consumption, ECFGM(1, 1), Brute Force algorithm

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