Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method

Year 2019, , 39 - 46, 31.12.2019

Bakiye Kılıç Topuz , Mehmet Bozoğlu , Nevra Alhas Eroğlu , Uğur Başer

https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.660377

Abstract

In 2017, 144
countries in the world produced 97.862.928 tons onion at 5.201.591 hectares. Turkey produced 2.1 million tons onion in 68 thousand
hectares. Turkey was the seventh-largest producer country of dry onion with a
share of 2,18% in the world. The main aim of this research was to forecast the
onion area and production of Turkey for the period of 2019-2026. The data of
this study was obtained from the database of the Food and Agriculture
Organization and the time series covered the period of 1961-2018. Three Exponential
Smoothing Methods were compared to model onion area and production and Holt
Exponential Smoothing model was determined as the most appropriate forecasting
model. In the study, time series data were determined as non-stationary and so,
stationarity was obtained after taking the first difference of the time series.
Model results show that, in the 2019-2026 period, the forecasted sown area of
onion would be increased from 58.873 hectares to 60.981 hectares, forecasted
production of onion would be increased from 2.066.453 tons to 2.309.751 tons. In
order to reduce the effect of Cobweb theorem, onion production should be
planned by producer organizations. The
supply gap can be avoided by taking appropriate policy measures and this is
necessary to maintain Turkey’s position in the world onion market.

Keywords

Onion, Production, Sown area, Exponential Smoothing Method, Turkey

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