Turizm Gelirleri ve Reel Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişkinin Analizi

Mustafa Caner Timur; Nilcan Mert

doi:10.25295/fsecon.848247

Research Article

Analysis of Asymmetric Relationship Between Tourism Revenues and Real Exchange Rate

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 219 - 237, 10.01.2021

Mustafa Caner Timur , Nilcan Mert

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.848247

Cited By: 4

Abstract

Tourism is one of the most important sectors of today's modern world. Countries prepare various incentives and regulations in order to increase their share in tourism revenues. In addition to all these incentives, some data on the structural issues of the country affect tourism revenues. This study analyzes the asymmetrical relationship between the real exchange rate and tourism revenues for the Turkey. 2003: Q1-2020: Q1 has been investigated for periods. According to the non-linear ARDL analysis results, between the exchange rate and tourism revenues an asymmetric relationship in the long run and a symmetric relationship in the short run has been determined. Accordingly, a positive shock in the exchange rate increases tourism revenues by approximately 0.6%, while a negative shock increases tourism revenues by approximately 0.3%.

Keywords

Tourism revenues, tourism, real exchange rate, NARDL, assymetry

References

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Bellomui, M. (2010), “The Relationship Between Tourism Receipts, Real Effective Exchange Rateand Economic Growth in Tunisia”. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12: 550-560.
Bozkurt, K., & Pekmezci, A. (2015). “Turizm talebi ve döviz kuru şokları: Türk turizm sektörü için ekonometrik bir analiz”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(2), 91-105.
Bozkurt, K., & Pekmezci, A. (2015). “Turizm talebi ve döviz kuru şokları: Türk turizm sektörü için ekonometrik bir analiz”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(2), 91-105.
Demirel, B., Alparslan, B., Bozdağ, E. G., & İnci, A. G. (2013). The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatılıty On Tourısm Sector: A Case Study, Turkey. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 117-126. Dickey, D. ve Fuller, W. A.. (1979). Distribution of The Estimates For Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431.
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Ergen, E, Yavuz, E. (2017). “Turist Akımları ile Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Yönden Analizi: ARDL Yöntemi”. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 3 (1) , 35-46.
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Lee, J.,ve Strazicich, M.C..(2003). “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”. The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, 1082–1089.
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Lim, C. (1997). “Review of International Tourism Demand Models”. Annals of Tourism Research", 24(4), 835-849.
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Mervar, A. ve Payne, J. (2007). “Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates”, Tourism Economics, 13, 407-420.
Mervar, A. ve Payne, J. (2007). “Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates”, Tourism Economics, 13, 407-420.
Perron, P..(1997). “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables”. Journal of Econometrics 80, 355–385.
Perron, P..(1997). “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables”. Journal of Econometrics 80, 355–385.
Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ. (2001) “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16: 289-326.
Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ. (2001) “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16: 289-326.
Phillips, P.C.B. ve Perron, P..(1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrica, Vol. 75, 335–346.
Phillips, P.C.B. ve Perron, P..(1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrica, Vol. 75, 335–346.
Saayman, A., & Saayman, M. (2013). “Exchange rate volatility and tourism-revisiting the nature of the relationship”. European journal of tourism research, 6(2), 104-121.
Saayman, A., & Saayman, M. (2013). “Exchange rate volatility and tourism-revisiting the nature of the relationship”. European journal of tourism research, 6(2), 104-121.
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Schiff, A., & Becken, S. (2011). “Demand elasticity estimates for New Zealand tourism”. Tourism Management, 32(3), 564-575.
Shin, Y., Yu, B. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2013). “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework”, In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 281-314). Springer, New York, NY.
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Turizm Gelirleri ve Reel Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişkinin Analizi

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 219 - 237, 10.01.2021

Mustafa Caner Timur , Nilcan Mert

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.848247

Cited By: 4

Abstract

Turizm günümüz modern dünyasının en önemli sektörlerinden birisidir. Ülkeler turizm gelirlerine ilişkin paylarını arttırmak amacıyla çeşitli teşvikler ve düzenlemeler hazırlamaktadır. Yapılan tüm bu teşviklerin yanında ülkenin yapısal değişkenlerine ilişkin bazı verilerde turizm gelirlerini etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için döviz kuru ile turizm gelirleri arasındaki asimetrik ilişkinin analizi 2003:Q1-2020:Q1 dönemleri itibariyle araştırılmıştır. Doğrusal olmayan ARDL analiz sonuçlarına göre döviz kuru ile turizm gelirleri arasında uzun dönemde asimetrik, kısa dönemde ise simetrik bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Buna göre döviz kurunda meydana gelecek pozitif bir şok turizm gelirlerini yaklaşık olarak %0,6 arttırırken, negatif bir şok ise turizm gelirlerini yaklaşık olarak %0,3 arttırmaktadır.

Keywords

turizm gelirleri, turizm, reel döviz kuru, NARDL, asimetri

References

Aydin, A., Darici, B., & Taşçı, H. (2015), “Uluslararası turizm talebini etkileyen ekonomik faktörler: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama”. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (45), 143-177.
Aydin, A., Darici, B., & Taşçı, H. (2015), “Uluslararası turizm talebini etkileyen ekonomik faktörler: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama”. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (45), 143-177.
Balaguer, J. ve Jorda, C. M. (2002), “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34 (7), 877-884.
Balaguer, J. ve Jorda, C. M. (2002), “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34 (7), 877-884.
Banerjee A, Dolado J, Mestre R. (1998), “Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework”. Journal of Time Series Analysis 19:267-283.
Banerjee A, Dolado J, Mestre R. (1998), “Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework”. Journal of Time Series Analysis 19:267-283.
Bellomui, M. (2010), “The Relationship Between Tourism Receipts, Real Effective Exchange Rateand Economic Growth in Tunisia”. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12: 550-560.
Bellomui, M. (2010), “The Relationship Between Tourism Receipts, Real Effective Exchange Rateand Economic Growth in Tunisia”. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12: 550-560.
Bozkurt, K., & Pekmezci, A. (2015). “Turizm talebi ve döviz kuru şokları: Türk turizm sektörü için ekonometrik bir analiz”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(2), 91-105.
Bozkurt, K., & Pekmezci, A. (2015). “Turizm talebi ve döviz kuru şokları: Türk turizm sektörü için ekonometrik bir analiz”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(2), 91-105.
Demirel, B., Alparslan, B., Bozdağ, E. G., & İnci, A. G. (2013). The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatılıty On Tourısm Sector: A Case Study, Turkey. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 117-126. Dickey, D. ve Fuller, W. A.. (1979). Distribution of The Estimates For Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431.
Demirel, B., Alparslan, B., Bozdağ, E. G., & İnci, A. G. (2013). The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatılıty On Tourısm Sector: A Case Study, Turkey. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 117-126. Dickey, D. ve Fuller, W. A.. (1979). Distribution of The Estimates For Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431.
Dritsakis, Nikolais 2004. “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: an Empirical Investigation for Greece using Causality Analysis”, Tourism Economics, 10: 205-316
Dritsakis, Nikolais 2004. “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: an Empirical Investigation for Greece using Causality Analysis”, Tourism Economics, 10: 205-316
Ergen, E, Yavuz, E. (2017). “Turist Akımları ile Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Yönden Analizi: ARDL Yöntemi”. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 3 (1) , 35-46.
Ergen, E, Yavuz, E. (2017). “Turist Akımları ile Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Yönden Analizi: ARDL Yöntemi”. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 3 (1) , 35-46.
Erkan, Birol ve O. Kara, M. Harbalioglu. 2013. “Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerinin Belirleyicileri”, Akademik Bakış Dergisi Sayı:39: 1-20
Erkan, Birol ve O. Kara, M. Harbalioglu. 2013. “Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerinin Belirleyicileri”, Akademik Bakış Dergisi Sayı:39: 1-20
Goh, C., Law, R., & Mok, H. M. (2008). “Analyzing and forecasting tourism demand: A rough sets approach”. Journal of Travel Research, 46(3), 327-338.
Goh, C., Law, R., & Mok, H. M. (2008). “Analyzing and forecasting tourism demand: A rough sets approach”. Journal of Travel Research, 46(3), 327-338.
Kwiatkowski, D.,Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., ve Shin, Y..(1992). “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary Against the Alternative of a Unit Root”. Journal of Econometrics 54, 159–178.
Kwiatkowski, D.,Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., ve Shin, Y..(1992). “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary Against the Alternative of a Unit Root”. Journal of Econometrics 54, 159–178.
Lee, C. K., Var, T., & Blaine, T. W. (1996). “Determinants of inbound tourist expenditures”. Annals of Tourism Research, 23(3), 527–542
Lee, C. K., Var, T., & Blaine, T. W. (1996). “Determinants of inbound tourist expenditures”. Annals of Tourism Research, 23(3), 527–542
Lee, J.,ve Strazicich, M.C..(2003). “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”. The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, 1082–1089.
Lee, J.,ve Strazicich, M.C..(2003). “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”. The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, 1082–1089.
Lim, C. (1997). “Review of International Tourism Demand Models”. Annals of Tourism Research", 24(4), 835-849.
Lim, C. (1997). “Review of International Tourism Demand Models”. Annals of Tourism Research", 24(4), 835-849.
Mervar, A. ve Payne, J. (2007). “Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates”, Tourism Economics, 13, 407-420.
Mervar, A. ve Payne, J. (2007). “Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates”, Tourism Economics, 13, 407-420.
Perron, P..(1997). “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables”. Journal of Econometrics 80, 355–385.
Perron, P..(1997). “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables”. Journal of Econometrics 80, 355–385.
Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ. (2001) “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16: 289-326.
Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ. (2001) “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16: 289-326.
Phillips, P.C.B. ve Perron, P..(1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrica, Vol. 75, 335–346.
Phillips, P.C.B. ve Perron, P..(1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrica, Vol. 75, 335–346.
Saayman, A., & Saayman, M. (2013). “Exchange rate volatility and tourism-revisiting the nature of the relationship”. European journal of tourism research, 6(2), 104-121.
Saayman, A., & Saayman, M. (2013). “Exchange rate volatility and tourism-revisiting the nature of the relationship”. European journal of tourism research, 6(2), 104-121.
Said, S. E. and Dickey D. A. (1984). Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive - Moving Average Models of Unknown Order, Biometrika 71, 599-608.
Said, S. E. and Dickey D. A. (1984). Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive - Moving Average Models of Unknown Order, Biometrika 71, 599-608.
Schiff, A., & Becken, S. (2011). “Demand elasticity estimates for New Zealand tourism”. Tourism Management, 32(3), 564-575.
Schiff, A., & Becken, S. (2011). “Demand elasticity estimates for New Zealand tourism”. Tourism Management, 32(3), 564-575.
Shin, Y., Yu, B. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2013). “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework”, In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 281-314). Springer, New York, NY.
Shin, Y., Yu, B. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2013). “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework”, In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 281-314). Springer, New York, NY.
Song, H., & Li, G. (2008). “Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: A review of recent research”. Tourism Management, 29(2), 203-220.
Song, H., & Li, G. (2008). “Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: A review of recent research”. Tourism Management, 29(2), 203-220.
Song, H., & Witt, S. F. (2006). “Forecasting international tourist flows to Macau”. Tourism Management, 27(2), 214-224.
Song, H., & Witt, S. F. (2006). “Forecasting international tourist flows to Macau”. Tourism Management, 27(2), 214-224.
Song, H., Li, G., Witt, S. F., & Fei, B. (2010). “Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: how should demand be measured?”. Tourism economics, 16(1), 63-81.
Song, H., Li, G., Witt, S. F., & Fei, B. (2010). “Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: how should demand be measured?”. Tourism economics, 16(1), 63-81.
T.C. Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı, Yatırım ve İşletmeler Genel Müdürlüğü, (2020) Available from: https://yigm.ktb.gov.tr/TR-201116/turizm-gelirleri-ve-giderleri.html, [Accessed 19.12.2020].
T.C. Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı, Yatırım ve İşletmeler Genel Müdürlüğü, (2020) Available from: https://yigm.ktb.gov.tr/TR-201116/turizm-gelirleri-ve-giderleri.html, [Accessed 19.12.2020].
Tapşın, G. ve Karabulut A.T., (2013). “Reel Döviz Kuru, İthalat ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, (26), ss.190-205.
Tapşın, G. ve Karabulut A.T., (2013). “Reel Döviz Kuru, İthalat ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, (26), ss.190-205.
TCMB (2020). Available from: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Istatistikler/Doviz+Kurlari/Reel+Efektif+Doviz+Kuruu/ [Accessed 13.12.2020].
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Details

Primary Language	Turkish
Journal Section	Articles
Authors	Mustafa Caner Timur 0000-0002-3259-8495 Nilcan Mert 0000-0002-4065-4768
Publication Date	January 10, 2021
Published in Issue	Year 2021 Volume: 5 Issue: 1

Cite

APA	Timur, M. C., & Mert, N. (2021). Turizm Gelirleri ve Reel Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişkinin Analizi. Fiscaoeconomia, 5(1), 219-237. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.848247