Analysing Effect of Financial News on Bitcoin Price with Artificial Neural Networks

Year 2021, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 65 - 78, 30.01.2021

Berat Çağlar , Uğur Yavuz

https://doi.org/10.17671/gazibtd.703688

Cited By: 5

Abstract

Developments on computer and technology cannot be denied in economical dimension as well, as it takes effects on every field of our lives. These innovations which is accepted as economical reform, is a part of FinTech (Financial Technology). Bitcoin which has started a decentralised movement with the Fintech innovation is now has an important position in the world economy. As for Blockchain technology that has been stepped in our lives with Bitcoin, obviously will be an essential part of our lives in the near future.
In considerations of these developments, the impacts of the news, which is covered in newspapers that is described as mass media, concerned by people and the society, and one of the most important necessities of the society, on Bitcoin that is seen as the currency of the future, have been wanted to be presented. In this sense, 5 national finance newspapers was designated by digitising according to both positive and negative comment contents as from the first year of public offering of Bitcoin, taking the provision of USA dollars with the blockchain data which is the basis technology of Bitcoin and the Ethereum which is the second most popular crypto, were associated in the network that was created with the artificial neural nets. After the results of study, it was deduced that Bitcoin thematic news was not a strong impact on the Bitcoin price forecasting in the artificial neural nets that included 99% percent success. In addition to this, it has been detected that The Wall Street newspaper has a relatively impact on Bitcoin price forecasting, compared to other financial newspapers.

Keywords

FinTech, Bitcoin, Blockchain, Artificial Neural Network

Finansal Haberlerin Bitcoin Fiyatlarına Etkisinin Yapay Sinir Ağları İle Analizi

Abstract

Bilgisayar ve internet teknolojilerindeki gelişmeler, hayatımızın her alanında etkisini gösterdiği gibi ekonomi boyutunda da etkileri yadsınamaz. Ekonomi alanındaki yeni ekonomik reform mahiyetinde kabul gören bu yenilikler FinTek (Finans ve Teknoloji) kapsamı içerisinde yer almaktadır. FinTech inovasyonu ile ekonomide ademi merkeziyetçi bir akım başlatan Bitcoin, şu an dünya ekonomisinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bitcoin ile hayatımıza giren Blockchain (Blokzincir) teknolojisinin ise yakın gelecekte hayatımızın vazgeçilmez bir parçası haline geleceği öngörülmektedir.
Tüm bu gelişmeler ışığında günümüzün popüler teknolojilerinden olan yapay zeka yöntemlerinden yararlanılarak, kitle haberleşme aracı olarak tanımlanan gazetelerde yer alan, insan ve toplumu ilgilendiren ve toplumun en önemli ihtiyaçlarından olan haberlerin, geleceğin para birimi olarak görülen Bitcoin üzerindeki etkileri ortaya konmak istenmiştir. Bu bağlamda 5 ulusal finans gazetesi belirlenip, Bitcoin’in ilk halka arz yılından itibaren yayınlanan haberleri olumlu ve olumsuz yorum içeriklerine göre sayısallaştırarak, Bitcoin altyapı teknolojisi olan blokzinciri verileri ile ikinci en popüler kripto para olan Ethereum’un ABD dolar karşılığı alınarak, yapay sinir ağları teknikleri ile oluşturulan ağ içerisinde ilişkilendirilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda %99’luk tahminsel başarı içeren yapay sinir ağında, finansal gazetelerin yayınlamış olduğu Bitcoin içerikli haberlerin, Bitcoin fiyat tahminine güçlü bir etkisinin olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Bunulan birlikte seçilen finansal gazetelerden The Wall Street gazetesinin diğer finansal gazetelere oranla Bitcoin fiyat tahminde nispeten etkisinin olduğu saptanmıştır. 

Keywords

FinTek, Bitcoin, Blokzincir, Yapay Sinir Ağları

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