BULANIK BAYES AĞLARI YAKLAŞIMI İLE TEHLİKELİ YÜK GEMİLERİNİN RİSK ANALİZİ

Year 2023, Issue: 23, 18 - 37, 31.07.2023

Gözde Nur Küçüksu , Ayhan Mentes , Hakan Akyıldız

Abstract

Artan küresel taşımacılık, yanaşma operasyonları sırasında tehlikeli yük gemilerinin elleçlenmesi konusunda sorunları artırmaktadır. Bu makale, çeşitli etkileyen faktörlerin tanımlanması, bu faktörlerin çıkarımı ve analizi için bir Bulanık Bayes Ağı kullanmaktadır. Sonuçlar, tehlikeli yük gemilerinin risk olasılığını çözmek için daha fazla dikkat gerektirdiğini göstermektedir. İnsan ve çevre en öne çıkan faktörlerlerdir. Bunun yanı sıra, gemi personelinin eğitimi, rüzgar kuvveti, su hızı, kanal genişliği, rıhtım düzeni ve liman konumu dikkate alınması gereken diğer önemli faktörlerdir. Tehlikeli yük gemileri için risk yönetimi için, liman yetkilileri tehlikeli yük gemilerinin zarar görmeyecek şekilde yanaşmasına odaklanmalıdır. Önerilen model, hükümetler, hat şirketleri ve liman yetkilileri için belirgin bir uygulanabilirliğe sahiptir.

Keywords

Risk Analizi, Bayes Ağı, Dilbilimsel değişkenler, Bulanık Küme Teorisi, Tehlikeli Yük, Yanaşma Operasyonu

A FUZZY BAYESIAN NETWORK APPROACH FOR RISK ANALYSIS OF HAZARDOUS CARGO SHIPS

Abstract

The increasing global transportation raises some concerns over the handling of hazardous cargo vessels during berthing operations. This paper uses a Fuzzy Bayesian Network for the identification of various influencing factors, the inference, and analysis of these factors. The results show that dangerous cargo ships require more attention to resolve the risk probability. Human and environmental factors are the most prominent factors. On the other hand, training of ship personnel, wind force, water velocity, channel width, dock layout, and port location are other important factors to be taken into consideration. To conduct risk management for hazardous cargo vessels, port authorities need to focus on the invulnerable berthing of hazardous cargo vessels. The proposed model has prominent practical viability for governments, liner companies, and port authorities.

Keywords

Risk Analysis, Bayesian Network, Linguistic Variables, Fuzzy Set Theory, Hazardous Cargo, Berthing Operation, Risk Analizi, Bayes Ağı, Dilbilimsel değişkenler, Bulanık Küme Teorisi, Tehlikeli Yük, Yanaşma Operasyonu

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