The Statistical Analysis of the Earthquake Hazard for Turkey by Generalized Linear Models

Year 2017, Volume: 30 Issue: 4, 584 - 597, 11.12.2017

Emel Kızılok Kara , Kübra Durukan

Abstract

In
this paper, 4863 earthquake data of magnitude 4.0 and greater from 1900 to 2014
are statistically analyzed for the earthquake hazardin Turkey. The
magnitude-frequency relationship in earthquake risk analysis is often performed
by Gutenberg-Richter (GR) model. With the use of this model, information about
earthquake potential of any region can be obtained by previous data and by
estimating parameters such as return periods and possibilities of their
occurrence. In this study, the
relationship between earthquake numbers and magnitudes is modelled with the
Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) as an alternative to Gutenberg-Richter (GR)
Model. Generalized Poisson Regression Model (GPR) and Generalized Negative
Binomial Regression Models (GNBR) as GLMs are utilized in the study. GPR is
found as the best model when considering the dispersion parameters and model
selection criteria. Exceeding probabilities and return periods are calculated
for the selected years depending on yearly average occurrence number of earthquakes
estimated with the GR and GPR models. According to the results, GPR model can
be employed for seismic risk modelling in Turkey.

Keywords

Earthquake, magnitude-frequency, Gutenberg-Richter relationship, Generalized Poisson Regression Model, Generalized Negative Binomial Regression Model, dispersion parameter

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