Evaluation of precipitation variability in the Western Black Sea Basin with an entropy-based approach

Year 2022, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 344 - 356, 15.01.2022

Filiz Barbaros

https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.995514

Abstract

The most obvious effect of global climate change on meteorological conditions is on temperature and precipitation. The negative effects of both flood and drought events are increasing day by day. While all natural disasters reveal the importance of climate change, they also bring the evaluation of meteorological events to a more important point. For this purpose, by examining the precipitation observation data in the Western Black Sea Basin, precipitation variability and possible risk areas related to this variability were defined, and risk maps were obtained as a result of regional analysis. Long term precipitation data of 13 meteorological stations in the Basin were taken into account and the variability in the observed precipitation was defined with the Intensity Variability Index (IVI) based on Intensity Entropy (IE). After the irregularities in precipitation were defined with indices, regions with high probability of precipitation were determined with index-based maps, created based on these indices. The produced entropy-based maps will be an effective tool for the planning of decision makers when faced with climate change and flood risk.

Keywords

West Black Sea Basin, Variability, Entropy, Intensity variability index, Precipitation, Türkiye

Batı Karadeniz Havzası yağış değişkenliklerinin entropi tabanlı bir yaklaşımla değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

Küresel iklim değişikliğinin meteorolojik koşullar üzerindeki en belirgin etkisi sıcaklık ve yağışlar üzerinedir. Son yıllarda görülme sıklıkları artan gerek taşkın gerekse kuraklık olaylarının canlı hayat üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri, gün geçtikçe belirgin bir şekilde karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Yaşanan tüm doğal afetler iklim değişikliğinin önemini daha çok ortaya koyarken, meteorolojik olayların değerlendirilmesini de daha önemli bir noktaya taşımaktadır. Bu amaçla, Batı Karadeniz Havzasındaki yağış gözlem verileri incelenerek, yağış değişkenliği ve bu değişkenliğe bağlı olası risk bölgeleri tanımlanmış, bölgesel analiz sonucu risk haritaları elde edilmiştir. Bu amaçla, Batı Karadeniz Havzasında bulunan 13 adet meteoroloji istasyonuna ait uzun dönem yağış verileri ele alınarak, gözlenen yağışlardaki değişkenlik Şiddet Entropisine (ŞE) dayalı Şiddet Değişkenliği İndisi (ŞDİ) ile tanımlanmıştır. Yağışlardaki değişkenlikler indisler ile tanımlandıktan sonra, bu indislere bağlı oluşturulan indis temelli haritalar ile olasılığa bağlı yüksek yağış alabilecek bölgeler belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen entropi tabanlı haritalar, iklim değişikliği ve taşkın riski ile mücadelede karar vericilerin oluşturacakları planlamalar çerçevesinde etkili bir araç olacaktır.

Keywords

Batı Karadeniz Havzası, Değişkenlik, Entropi, Şiddet değişkenlik indisi, Yağış, Türkiye

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