THE ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON STOCK INDEX EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Year 2019, Volume: 8 Issue: 15, 61 - 68, 10.07.2019

Abdullah Ferit Erol , Sinan Aytekin

Abstract

The stock exchange indices are an
indicator that is calculated according to the weights of equities that measure
the proportional changes of equity prices and returns of the selected
companies. Besides the company-specific factors affecting the equity prices of
companies, there are also macroeconomic factors. As a result of the influence
of these factors on equity prices occur changes in the indices. From this point
of view the study, it is aimed to measure the effect of selected macroeconomic
variables on BIST 100 index. The BIST 100 Index has been used as dependent
variable, the Inflation Ratio, the Overnight Lending Interest Rate, the Golden
Ounce Price, the Industrial Production Index and the Growth Rate have been used
as the independent variable in the study. Scope of the study, quarterly data
between 2009:Q4-2018:Q3 periods are analyzed by the Multiple-linear Regression
Model. According to the results of the analysis, between BIST 100 index and the
Overnight Lending Interest Rate, the Industrial Production Index and the
Inflation Rate have been found statistically significant relationship. On the
other hand, between BIST 100 index and the Growth Rate and the Golden Ounce
Price variables haven’t got statistically significant relationship.

Keywords

Borsa Istanbul, Macroeconomic Variables, Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

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