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Gri Bölge ve Hibrit Savaş Konseptleri Arasında Bir Karşılaştırma: Uluslararası Güvenlik Açısından Ne Gibi Yenilikler Vardır?

Year 2021, Volume: 17 Issue: 38, 411 - 439, 07.07.2021
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.964066

Abstract

Güvenlik çalışmalarında; 2006’dan bu yana Hibrit Savaş kavramı baskın konumunu korusa da 2015 sonrasında Rusya ve Çin’le ilişkili olarak ‘Gri Bölge’ kavramına da artan biçimde yer verilmeye başlanılmıştır. Diğer taraftan akademik yazında, gri bölge aktiviteleri, hibrit savaş, bunların teorik ilişkisi ve uygulamaları konusunda ciddi bir tartışma ve görüş farklılığı olduğu gözlemlenmektedir. Bu makalenin amacı, söz konusu kavramların teorik ilişkisini ve uluslararası güvenliğe olan etkilerini Rusya ve Çin örnekleri üzerinden karşılaştırarak incelemektir. Makale; her iki kavramın da yeni olmadığını, fakat aynı da olmadığını, Gri Bölge Konseptinin ABD’nin stratejik dikkatini Rusya’dan Çin’e kaydırmasının bir yansıması olduğunu ve ABD’nin ulusal çıkarları ile müttefiklerinin güvenlik kaygılarını örtüştürmeyi amaçladığını iddia etmektedir. Ancak, yine de Gri Bölge Konsepti bir realiteye işaret etmektedir ve Hibrit Savaş Konseptinden ayrıştırılmalıdır.

References

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  • VOTEL, Joseph L., CLEVELAND, Charles T. et all. “Unconventional Warfare in the Gray Zone,” Joint Forces Quarterly, 1st Quarter 2016, No: 80, 101-109.
  • WALLANDER, Celeste A. “NATO’s Enemies Within”, Foreign Affairs, Jul/Aug 2018, Vol. 97, Issue 4, 70-81.
  • CORDESMAN, Anthony H. and BURKE, Arleigh A “China and the US: Cooperation, Competition and/or Conflict”, CSIS Report, 1 October 2019, https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-and-united-states-cooperation-competition-andor-conflict (Date of Access: 7 January 2020).
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  • WONG, Edward. “The US versus China: A New Era of Great Power Competition, but Without Boundaries”, The New York Times, 26 June 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/ 2019/06/26/world/asia/united-states-china-conflict.html (Date of Access: 7 January 2020).

A Comparison between the Concepts of Gray Zone and Hybrid War: What is New for International Security?

Year 2021, Volume: 17 Issue: 38, 411 - 439, 07.07.2021
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.964066

Abstract

Albeit the Hybrid War has dominated security studies since 2006, it is also observed that the term ‘Gray Zone’ has increasingly taken part as well in connection with China and Russia after 2015. However, there is also a debate and confusion in the literature over gray zone activities, its relationship with hybrid war, and their implementations. This article aims to discuss and assess the theoretical relationship between these concepts and their implications for international security, by comparing recent Russian and Chinese practices. The article asserts that hybrid and gray zone activities are neither new nor the same, and the Gray Zone Concept emerged as a reflection of the shift in the US strategical attention from Russia to China, and aimed to harmonize US national interests with other Allies’ security concerns. However, it also acknowledges that the concept is real, and should be differentiated and separated from hybrid war.

References

  • CLAUSEWITZ, Carl von. On War, Michael Howard and Peter Paret, (ed. and trans.), Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1984.
  • CONLEY, Heather, MINA James et all., The Kremlin Playbook: Understanding Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe, CSIS, Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, Washington, DC, 2016.
  • HERACLIDES, Alexis. The Greek-Turkish Conflict in the Aegean, New Perspectives on South-East Europe Series, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2010.
  • HERSMAN, Rebecca K.C. Meeting Security Challenges in a Disordered World, Rowman & Littlefield, June 2017.
  • HICKS, Kathleen, FRIEND, Alice Hunt et all., Campaigning in the Gray Zone by Other Means, CSIS International Security Program Report, Rowman & Littlefield, July 2019.
  • HOFFMAN, Frank G. Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars, Potomac Institute Publishing, Virginia, 2007.
  • KOFMAN, Michael. Lessons from Russia’s Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California, 2017.
  • MAZARR, Michael J. Mastering the Gray Zone: Understanding a Changing Era of Conflict, The Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, Ashburn Drive, Carlisle, PA, December 2015.
  • MORRIS, Lyle J., Mazarr, Michale J. et. all., Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California, 2019.
  • VALASEK, Tomas (ed.) New Perspectives on Shared Security: NATO’s Next 70 Years, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publications, Brussels, 2019.
  • AKGÜL, Fatih. “Effects of Eurasian Energy Policies of Putin’s Russia on Turkish-Russian Relations” (in Turkish), Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi, 2007, Vol: 3, No: 5, 129-157.
  • BACHMANN, Sascha Dominik and GUNNERIUSSON, Hakan. “Hybrid Wars: The 21st-Century’s New Threats To Global Peace And Security”, Scientia Militaria, South African Journal of Military Studies, Vol 43, No. 1, 2015, 77-98.
  • BINGÖL, Oktay. “Hybrid War and Its Strategic Implications to Turkey”, Gazi Akademik Bakış, 2017, Vol: 11, No: 21, 107-132.
  • CARMENT, David and BELO, Dani. “Gray-zone Conflict Management: Theory, Evidence, and Challenges”, European, Middle Eastern, & African Affairs, Summer 2020, 21-41.
  • COOPER, Zack. “Understanding the Chinese Communist Party’s Approach to Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare”, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, September 2018, https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/defenddemocracy/uploads/documents/REPORT_ China_CEEW.pdf, (Date of Access: 04 January 2020).
  • COX, Robert W. “Social Forces, States and World Orders: Beyond International Relations Theory”, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 1981, Volume: 10, Issue: 2, 126-155.
  • ELKUS, Adam. “50 Shades of Gray: Why the Gray Wars Concept Lacks Strategic Sense”, War on the Rocks, 15 December 2015, https://warontherocks.com/2015/12/50-shades-of-gray-why-the-gray-wars-concept-lacks-strategic-sense/ (Date of Access: 7 February 2020).
  • GERASIMOV, Valery. “The Value of Science in in the Foresight: New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying Out Combat Operations,” Military Review, Vol. 96, January-February 2016, 23-29.
  • GLATZ Rainer L. and Zapfe, Martin. “NATO Defense Planning between Wales and Warsaw: Politico-military Challenges of a Credible Assurance against Russia”, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, SWP Comments No: 5, January 2016, https://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/comments/2016C05_glt_ Zapfe.pdf (Date of Access: 10 May 2020).
  • HOFFMAN, Frank G. “On Not-So-New Warfare: Political Warfare vs. Hybrid Threats,” War on the Rocks, 28 July 2014, warontherocks.com/2014/07/on-not-so-new-warfare-political-warfare-vs-hybrid-threats/ (Date of Access: 15 March 2020).
  • HOFFMAN, Frank G. “Examining Complex Forms of Conflict: Gray Zone and Hybrid Challenges”, Prism, Vol.7, No.4, November 2018, 30-47.
  • HUANG, Philip. “How Has the Chinese Economy Developed So Rapidly? The Concurrence of Five Paradoxical Coincidences”, Modern China, 2015, Vol.41, No.3, 239-277.
  • JORDAN, Javier. “International Competition Below the Threshold of War: Toward a Theory of Gray Zone Conflict”, Journal of Strategic Security, 14, No. 1, 2020, 1-24.
  • KORTEWEG, Rem. “Energy as a tool of foreign policy of authoritarian states, in particular Russia”, EU Policy Department for External Relations, PE 603.868, April 2018, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2018/603868/EXPO_STU(2018)603868_EN.pdf (Date of Access: 22 April 2020).
  • MANKOFF, Jeffrey. “Russia’s Latest Land Grab: How Putin Won Crimea and Lost Ukraine”, Foreign Affairs, May/Jun 2014, Vol.93, Issue 3, 60-68.
  • MATISEK, Jahara W. “Shades of Gray Deterrence: Issues of Fighting in the Gray Zone”, Journal of Strategic Security, 2017, Vol.10, No.3, 1-26.
  • PINCUS, Rebecca. “China’s Polar Strategy: An Emerging Gray Zone?”, The Diplomat, 06 July 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/chinas-polar-strategy-an-emerging-gray-zone/ (Date of Access: 7 January 2020).
  • SORENSEN, Heine and NYEMANN, Dorthe Bach. “Going Beyond Resilience. A revitalised approach to countering hybrid threats”, Hybrid CoE Strategic Analysis, No: 13, 8 January 2019, https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ Strategic-analysis-Sorensen-Nyeman-11-2018.pdf. (Date of Access: 04 January 2020).
  • STOKER, Donald and WHITESIDE, Craig. “Blurred Lines: Gray-Zone Conflict and Hybrid War-Two Failures of American Strategic Thinking,” Naval War College Review, 2020, Vol.73, No.1, 13-48.
  • VOTEL, Joseph L., CLEVELAND, Charles T. et all. “Unconventional Warfare in the Gray Zone,” Joint Forces Quarterly, 1st Quarter 2016, No: 80, 101-109.
  • WALLANDER, Celeste A. “NATO’s Enemies Within”, Foreign Affairs, Jul/Aug 2018, Vol. 97, Issue 4, 70-81.
  • CORDESMAN, Anthony H. and BURKE, Arleigh A “China and the US: Cooperation, Competition and/or Conflict”, CSIS Report, 1 October 2019, https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-and-united-states-cooperation-competition-andor-conflict (Date of Access: 7 January 2020).
  • North Atlantic Council, NATO Wales Summit Declaration, 05 September 2014, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq /official_texts_112964.htm (Date of Access: 22 February 2020).
  • The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, Washington, D.C., December 2017.
  • Office of the Director of US National Intelligence, Global Trends: Paradox of Progress, National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, 2017.
  • U.S. Department of Defense, Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America: Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge, Washington, D.C., January 2018. AROSTEGUI, Martin. “Spain Warns Russia’s Catalonia Hacking Efforts Could Intensify”, VOA News, 23 January, 2018. https://www.voanews.com/europe/spain-warns-russias-catalonia-hacking-efforts-could-intensify (Date of Access: 20 July 2020).
  • BRANDS, Hal. “Paradoxes of the Gray Zone”, Foreign Policy Research Institute E-Notes, 5 February 2016, https://www.fpri.org/article/2016/02/paradoxes-gray-zone/ (Date of Access: 9 July 2020).
  • CARMENT David and BELO, Dani. “War’s Future: The Risks and Rewards of Gray-Zone Conflict and Hybrid Warfare”, Canadian Global Affairs Institute Policy Paper, October 2018, https://www.cgai.ca/wars_future_the_risks_and_rewards_of_grey_zone_ conflict_and_hybrid_warfare, (Date of Access: 11 January 2020).
  • CORDESMAN, Anthony H. and HWANG, Grace. “Chronology of Russian Gray Zone and Hybrid Operations”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 02 July 2020, https://www.csis.org/analysis/chronology-possible-russian-gray-area-and-hybrid-warfare-operations (Date of Access 12 July 2020).
  • CORERA, Gordon. “Russia ‘interference’ report to be published”, BBC, 16 July 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53428246 (Date of Access: 20 July 2020).
  • FAULCONBRIDGE, Guy. “UK says Russia tried to meddle in election by leaking U.S. trade documents”, National Post, 16 July 2020, https://nationalpost.com/pmn/ news-pmn/crime-pmn/uk-says-russia-tried-to-meddle-in-election-by-leaking-u-s-trade-documents-3 (Date of Access: 20 July 2020).
  • FRENKEL, Sheera, CONGER, Kate et. all. “Russia’s Playbook for Social Media Disinformation Has Gone Global,” New York Times, 31 January 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/31/technology/ twitter-disinformation-united-states-russia.html (Date of Access: 11 March 2020).
  • HADDICK, Robert. “Salami Slicing in the South China Sea,” Foreign Policy, 3 August 2012, https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/08/03/salami-slicing-in-the-south-china-sea/ (Date of Access: 20 May 2020).
  • HERD, Graeme P. “Hybrid Conflict 2.0 Targeting the West”, Concordiam, 20 May 2016, George Marshall Center, https://perconcordiam.com/hybrid-conflict-2-0-targeting-the-west/ (Date of Access: 22 April 2020).
  • KENNAN, George F. “Policy Planning Staff Memorandum”, National Archives, RG 273, Records of the National Security Council, NSC 10/2, 4 May 1948, http://academic. brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/ johnson/65ciafounding3.htm (Date of Access: 21 January 2020).
  • PAWLAK, Patryk. “At a glance: Understanding Hybrid Threats”, European Parliamentary Research Service Fact Sheet, PE 564.355, June 2015, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/ etudes/ATAG/2015/564355/EPRS_ATA(2015)564355_EN.pdf (Date of Access: 29 January 2020).
  • PIERINI, Marc. “Emerging from the Pandemic, Turkey Rolls Out a More Assertive Foreign Policy”, Carnegie Europe, 03 June 2020, https://carnegieeurope.eu/2020/06/03/ emerging-from-pandemic-turkey-rolls-out-more-assertive-foreign-policy-pub-81963 (Date of Access: 22 Jun 2020).
  • STARES, Paul B. Preventive Priorities Survey 2020, Council on Foreign Relations\Center for Preventive Actions, https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/ report_pdf/PPS_2020_12162019_CM_ single_0.pdf (Date of Access: 27 May 2020).
  • STOLTENBERG, Jens. “Remarks”, NATO 2030- Strengthening the Alliance in an increasingly competitive world Online Conference, 8 June 2020, https://www.nato.int/cps/ en/natohq/opinions_ 176197.htm (Date of Access: 12 July 2020).
  • WONG, Edward. “The US versus China: A New Era of Great Power Competition, but Without Boundaries”, The New York Times, 26 June 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/ 2019/06/26/world/asia/united-states-china-conflict.html (Date of Access: 7 January 2020).
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Fatih Akgül 0000-0001-9861-9378

Publication Date July 7, 2021
Submission Date October 30, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 17 Issue: 38

Cite

Chicago Akgül, Fatih. “A Comparison Between the Concepts of Gray Zone and Hybrid War: What Is New for International Security?”. Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi 17, no. 38 (July 2021): 411-39. https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.964066.