Simulations in Pre-emptive and Preventive Intervention

Year 2023, Volume: 19 Issue: 45, 455 - 481, 22.08.2023

Elif Gürdal Limon , Onur Limon

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1297815

Abstract

Simulations are digital environments created by imitating real environments and creating similar ones with mathematical models. In this respect, it is possible to calculate all the possibilities that can be experienced by uploading the data of the real world to these imitated digital environments. The fact that the resulting knowledge can affect real-world policies is a subject that needs to be discussed. Thanks to simulations, probability calculations for important security issues of states have now become frequently used methods. However, it should be discussed whether this security method tried to be provided through the digital space will be a directing factor as a basis for defence or whether taking an action based on simulation data can be interpreted as an attack. This study undertakes to seek answers to these questions. The conceptual framework of the study is the concepts of pre-emptive and preventive intervention. In this context, the study examines whether the use of simulation data as a basis for defence in interventions can be a pre-emptive and preventive approach. The legitimacy of using simulation data and artificial intelligence analyses for identifying enemies and calculating aggression indicators depends on the specific forms of international cooperation and the processes through which international actors establish acceptable options.

Keywords

Pre-emptive Intervention, Preventive Intervention, Simulation, Digitization, Security

Ön-Alıcı ve Önleyici Müdahalede Simülasyonlar

Abstract

Simülasyonlar gerçek ortamların taklit edilmesi ve birebir benzerlerinin matematiksel modellerle yaratılması ile oluşturulan dijital ortamlardır. Bu dijital ortamlara gerçek dünyanın verileri yüklenerek yaşanabilecek tüm olasılıkların hesaplanabilmesi mümkün olabilmektedir. Ortaya çıkan bilginin ise gerçek dünyadaki politikaları etkileyebilmesi tartışılması gereken bir konu olmaktadır. Simülasyonlar sayesinde devletlerin önemli güvenlik meselelerine dair olasılık hesaplarının yapılması artık sık sık başvurulan yöntemler haline gelmiştir. Ancak dijital alan üzerinden sağlanmaya çalışılan bu güvenlik yönteminin savunma dayanağı olarak yönlendirici olup olmayacağı ya da simülasyon verilerine dayanarak bir eylemde bulunmanın saldırı olarak yorumlanıp yorumlanamayacağı tartışılmalıdır. Bu çalışma bu sorulara yanıt aramak için ele alınmıştır. Kavramsal çerçeve ön-alıcı ve önleyici müdahale kavramlarıdır. Bu çerçevede simülasyon verilerinin müdahale ederken bir savunma dayanağı olarak kullanılmasının ön-alıcı mı yoksa önleyici mi olduğu tartışılmaktadır. Simülasyon verileri ve yapay zekâ analizlerinin düşman tanımlaması ve saldırganlık göstergelerinin hesaplamalarında meşru bir hukuksal dayanak olup olamaması uluslararası iş birliğinin şekli ve uluslararası aktörlerin kabul edilir seçenekleri meşrulaştırma süreçlerine göre değişmektedir.

Keywords

Ön-Alıcı Müdahale, Önleyici Müdahale, Simülasyon, Dijitalleşme, Güvenlik

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