Terörizmde Sırada Ne Var? Yeni Bir Terörizm Dalgasına Yol Alırken

Year 2024, Volume: 20 Issue: 48, 157 - 179, 23.08.2024

Selim Kurt

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1438953

Abstract

Siyasal amaçlı şiddet kullanımı olarak özetlenebilecek olan terörizme dayanak oluşturan fikirler zaman içinde dönüşmüştür. Bu dönüşümü açıklama amacı güden teorilerden biri olan ve David C. Rapoport tarafından ortaya atılan “dalga teorisi” modern terörizmin günümüze kadar dört dalga halinde ilerlediğini iddia etmektedir. Dördüncü dalga ise halen içinde bulunduğumuz “dini dalga”dır. Kendisinden önceki dalgalardan gerek motivasyon gerekse organizasyon, hedef seçimi, eylem sahası, kullanılan taktikler ve teknolojinin etkin kullanımı gibi hususlarda önemli farklılıklar arz ettiği için bu dalgayı “yeni terörizm” olarak nitelendirenler de bulunmaktadır. Yukarıda belirtilen niteliklerdeki farklılaşmanın en belirgin olarak görüldüğü olay ise hiç şüphesiz 11 Eylül saldırılarıdır. 2023 yılına ait Global Terör Endeksi raporunda ise dini motivasyonlu terör örneklerinin zirve yaptığı 2016 yılından bu yana yüzde 95 oranında azaldığına dikkat çekilmekte olup, bu durum “şimdi sırada ne var?” sorusunu akıllara getirmektedir. Yakın dönemdeki terör eylemleri incelendiğinde ise ideolojik çeşitlilik, merkeziyetsizleşme ve bireyselleşme, dezenformasyon ve ölümcüllük gibi nitelikleriyle ön plana çıkan yeni bir terörizm dalgasının doğuşuna şahitlik edildiği görülmektedir.

Keywords

Terörizm, Dalga Teorisi, David C. Rapoport, Bireysel Terörizm, Aşırı Sağ Terörizm

What is Next in Terrorism? On the Way to a New Wave of Terrorism

Abstract

The ideas underlying terrorism, which can be summarized as the use of violence for political purposes, have transformed over time. One of the theories that aims to explain this transformation, the “wave theory” put forward by David C. Rapoport, claims that modern terrorism has progressed in four waves until today. The fourth wave is the current “religious wave”. There are also those who refer to this wave as “new terrorism” since it has significant differences from its predecessors in terms of motivation, organization, target selection, area of action, tactics and effective use of technology. The September 11 attacks were undoubtedly the event where the differentiation in the above-mentioned qualities was most evident. In the 2023 Global Terrorism Index report, it is pointed out that religiously motivated terrorism has decreased by 95 percent since its peak in 2016, which raises the question “what’s next?”. An analysis of recent terrorist attacks reveals the emergence of a new wave of terrorism, characterized by ideological diversity, decentralization and individualization, disinformation and lethality.

Keywords

Terrorism, Four Waves Theory, David C. Rapoport, Individual Terrorism, Far-Right Terrorism

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