Abstract
Traffic accidents are one of the important problems in our country and in world. So many investments have been made to reduce traffic accident. Traffic accidents have occurred by the road geometry, the segment length, the number of lanes etc. It is important to determine the black spot where the accident occurred frequently. In this study, the Empirical Bayes method has used in order to determine risky road segments. Traffic accident data have been compiled general directorate for highways and general directorate of security. The data cover traffic accidents in highways of Afyonkarahisar and Konya in 2006-2011 years. The Empirical Bayes methods have predicted the expected accidents for a segment. Performance Index and estimate of the accident have been calculated to determine black spot. These segments which are identified as at risk have visualized with software supported Geographical Information Systems
References
- Lord, D., ve Mannering, F. (2010). The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 44(5), 291–305.
- Elvik, R. (2008). The predictive validity of empirical Bayes estimates of road safety. Accident analysis and prevention, 40(6).
- Erdogan, S., Yilmaz, I., Baybura, T., ve Güllü, M. (2007). Geographical information systems aided traffic accident analysis system case study: city of Afyonkarahisar. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 40 (1), 174–81.
- Garber, N. J., ve Ph, D. (2010). Contract Report Safety Performance Functıons For Intersectıons On Hıghways Maıntaıned By The Vırgınıa Department Of Transportatıon.
- Tegge, R. A., ve Jo, J. (2010). Development And Application Of Safety Performance Functions For Illinois Research Report (2009-2010).
- Vogt, A. and Bared, J.G.(1998), Accident Models for Two-lane Rural Roads: Segments and Intersections, Federal Highway Administration, Report FHWA-RD-98-133.
- Hauer, E., (2001). Estimating Safety by the Empirical Bayes Method: ATutorial.
- Miranda-Moreno, L. F., & Lord, D. ( 2005). Bayesian road safety analysis : incorporation of past experiences and effect of hyper-prior choice, (519), 1–39.
- Ankaralı, H., (2005). Mersin’ de Yaşayan Çocuklarda İntihar Girişim Sıklığı İçin Poisson Regresyon Modelinin Kullanımı, VIII. Ulusal Biyoistatistik Kongresi, 20-22 Eylül 2005.
- An Introduction to the Highway Safety Manuel, 2010.
- Powers M. ve Carson J., 2004. Before-After Crash Analysis: A Primer for Using the Empirical Bayes Method. Montana State University, Department of Civil Engineering.
- Kahramangil, M., Şenkal, Ş., (1999), Kaza Kara Noktaları Belirleme Yöntemleri, II. Ulaşım ve Trafik Kongresi- Sergisi.
- Denham, B., Eguakun, G., ve Quaye, K., (2011). GeoTAIS: An Application of Spatial Analysis for Traffic Safety Improvements on Provicial Highways in Saskatchewan, Effective methods for identification of potential Sites for Roadway improvements Session of the 2011 Annual Conference of the Transportation Association of Canada Edmonton, Alberta.
Abstract
Trafik kazaları dünyada olduğu gibi ülkemizde de önemli problemlerden birisidir. Bu nedenle trafik kazalarının azaltılmasına yönelik birçok yatırım yapılmaktadır. Gerçekleşen bu yatırımların yanında, trafik yoğunluğundan, yol geometrisinden, segment uzunluklarından, şerit sayısından vb. nedenlerden dolayı kazaların sıklıkla meydana geldiği trafik kaza kara noktalarının belirlenmesi de önemlidir. Bu çalışmada trafik açısından riskli olan yol segmentlerinin belirlenmesi amacıyla, kara nokta belirleme yöntemlerinden biri olan Ampirik Bayes yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Karayolları Genel Müdürlüğü ve Emniyet Genel Müdürlüğü’nden temin edilmiş olan 2006-2011 yılları Afyonkarahisar-Konya illeri dâhilinde bulunan karayollarında gerçekleşen trafik kaza verileri kullanılarak her yol segmenti için beklenen kaza tahminleri hesaplanmıştır. Her yol segmenti için hesaplanan kaza tahminleri ile performans indeksleri belirlenmiş ve performans indeksleri birden büyük olan segmentler kara nokta olarak nitelendirilmiştir. Riskli olarak belirlenen bu segmentler Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri destekli yazılımlar yardımıyla görselleştirilmiştir.
References
- Lord, D., ve Mannering, F. (2010). The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 44(5), 291–305.
- Elvik, R. (2008). The predictive validity of empirical Bayes estimates of road safety. Accident analysis and prevention, 40(6).
- Erdogan, S., Yilmaz, I., Baybura, T., ve Güllü, M. (2007). Geographical information systems aided traffic accident analysis system case study: city of Afyonkarahisar. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 40 (1), 174–81.
- Garber, N. J., ve Ph, D. (2010). Contract Report Safety Performance Functıons For Intersectıons On Hıghways Maıntaıned By The Vırgınıa Department Of Transportatıon.
- Tegge, R. A., ve Jo, J. (2010). Development And Application Of Safety Performance Functions For Illinois Research Report (2009-2010).
- Vogt, A. and Bared, J.G.(1998), Accident Models for Two-lane Rural Roads: Segments and Intersections, Federal Highway Administration, Report FHWA-RD-98-133.
- Hauer, E., (2001). Estimating Safety by the Empirical Bayes Method: ATutorial.
- Miranda-Moreno, L. F., & Lord, D. ( 2005). Bayesian road safety analysis : incorporation of past experiences and effect of hyper-prior choice, (519), 1–39.
- Ankaralı, H., (2005). Mersin’ de Yaşayan Çocuklarda İntihar Girişim Sıklığı İçin Poisson Regresyon Modelinin Kullanımı, VIII. Ulusal Biyoistatistik Kongresi, 20-22 Eylül 2005.
- An Introduction to the Highway Safety Manuel, 2010.
- Powers M. ve Carson J., 2004. Before-After Crash Analysis: A Primer for Using the Empirical Bayes Method. Montana State University, Department of Civil Engineering.
- Kahramangil, M., Şenkal, Ş., (1999), Kaza Kara Noktaları Belirleme Yöntemleri, II. Ulaşım ve Trafik Kongresi- Sergisi.
- Denham, B., Eguakun, G., ve Quaye, K., (2011). GeoTAIS: An Application of Spatial Analysis for Traffic Safety Improvements on Provicial Highways in Saskatchewan, Effective methods for identification of potential Sites for Roadway improvements Session of the 2011 Annual Conference of the Transportation Association of Canada Edmonton, Alberta.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | August 28, 2015 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2015 Volume: 7 Issue: 2 |
