DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR

Deniz Erer

doi:10.17065/huniibf.1223281

Research Article

The Validity of Quadruple Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence From BRICS and MINT Countries

Year 2023, , 410 - 431, 27.09.2023

Deniz Erer

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1223281

Abstract

The current account deficit is a macroeconomic indicator affecting significantly economic stability, especially in developing countries. In the relationship of the current account balance with the budget deficit and saving-investment deficits, the view that the output gap may be an important factor in exhibiting the role of the real economy on the current account deficit has become crucial today. In this context, this paper proposes to investigate quadruple deficit in BRICS and MINT countries using the Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test and panel ARDL model during the period of 2002-2021. The findings show the Quadruple Deficit Hypothesis is valid for all panel only in the long-run period. According to country-specific results, this hypothesis is valid for Brazil, Rusia and South Africa in the short-run period while Brazil, Russia, China, Mexico, and Indoesia in the long-run period.

Keywords

Ekonomik büyüme, Üçüz açık, Dördüz açık, Panel eşbütünleşme, Panel ARDL

References

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Baharumshah, A. Z., & E. Lau (2007). Dynamics of fiscal and current account deficits in Thailand: An empirical investigation. Journal of Economic Studies (34), 454–475. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580710830943
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Blanchard, O., & Giavazzi, F. (2002). Current account deficits in the euro area: Tthe end of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2002(2), 147-209.
Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
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Çoban, H., & Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2016). Triple deficit or twin divergence: A dynamic panel analysis. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 12(1), 271-280.
Downes, D., & Moore, W. R. (2007). Does the exchange rate regime influence the relationship between the output gap and the current account? Applied Economics, 39(15), 1955-1960. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600707035
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Güriş, S., Yılgör, M., & Kömüryakan, F. (2019). Üçüz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliğinin analizi: Panel veri yaklaşımı. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi, 8(3), 91-101. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ssrj/issue/47195/607963
Holmes, M. J. (2010). A reassessment of the twin deficits relationship. Applied Economics Letters, 17(12), 1209-1212. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840902845434
Kalim, R., & Hassan, M. S. (2013). What lies behind fiscal deficit: Aa case of Pakistan. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 9(40), 96-113.
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Kesgingöz, H., & Ahmed, S. H. (2021). The Triple deficit hypothesis effects on economic growth: Case of Turkey. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(2), 67-77. DOI: 10.47147/ksuiibf.1036399
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Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2008). Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the US. Journal of Iinternational Economics, 74(2), 362-383.
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DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR

Year 2023, , 410 - 431, 27.09.2023

Deniz Erer

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1223281

Abstract

Özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde cari işlemler açığı, ekonomik istikrarı önemli ölçüde etkileyen makroekonomik bir gösterge olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Son yıllarda bütçe açığı, tasarruf-yatırım açığı ve cari işlemler açığı arasındaki ilişkide, çıktı açığının da önemli bir faktör olabileceği düşüncesi önem kazanmıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada 2002-2021 dönemi için BRICS ve MINT ülkelerinde dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği Durbin-Hausman eşbütünleşme testi ve Panel ARDL modeli ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular tüm panel için sadece uzun dönemde dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Ülke bazında sonuçlara göre ise, kısa dönemde Brezilya, Rusya ve Güney Afrika’da, uzun dönemde ise Brezilya, Rusya, Çin, Meksika ve Endonezya’da dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Ekonomik büyüme, Üçüz açık, Dördüz açık, Panel eşbütünleşme, Panel ARDL

References

Abbas, S. M. A. et al. (2010). Fiscal policy and Current Account. IMF Working Paper No 10/121. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1612591
Abell, J. D. (1990). Twin deficits during the 1980s: An empirical investigation. Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(1), 81-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/0164-0704(90)90057-H
Akbaş, Y. E., & Lebe, F. (2016). Current account deficit, budget deficit and savings gap: Iis the twin or triplet deficit hypothesis valid in G7 countries? Prague Economic Papers, 2016(3), 271-286.
Akıncı M., Akıncı G. Y., & Yılmaz Ö. (2016). Dördüz açıklar; ütopya mı yoksa gerçek mi? PARADOX Ekonomi, Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi, 12(1), 22-47.
Akpınar, A., & Çelik, N. (2022). OECD Ülkelerinde dördüz açık hipotezinin araştırılması [Yayınlanmamış yüksek lisans tezi]. İzmir Katip Çelebi Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
Altunöz, U. (2018). Cari açık, bütçe açığı ve yatırım-tasarruf açığı bağlamında Türkiye’nin üçüz açık analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 175, 115-139.
Asteriou, D., Pilbeam, K., & Pratiwi, C. E. (2021). Public debt and economic growth: panel data evidence for Asian countries. Journal of Economics and Finance, 45, 270-287. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-020-09515-7
Aytaç, D., & Saraç, T. B. (2021). Türkiye’de üçüz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği. Fiscaoeconomia, 5(2), 505-521. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.910423
Baharumshah, A. Z., & E. Lau (2007). Dynamics of fiscal and current account deficits in Thailand: An empirical investigation. Journal of Economic Studies (34), 454–475. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580710830943
Banday, U. J., & Aneja, R. (2016). How budget deficit and current account deficit are interrelated in Indian economy. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 23(1), 237-246.
Baxter, M. (1995). International trade and business cycles. Iİn Grossman, H. and Rogoff, K. (eds.), Handbook of International Economics, Amsterdam, North Holland, vol. 3, chapter 35.
Bilman, M. E., & Karaoğlan, S. (2020). Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes? Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(1), 205-215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.09.003
Blanchard, O., & Giavazzi, F. (2002). Current account deficits in the euro area: Tthe end of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2002(2), 147-209.
Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
Calderon, C., Chong, A., & Loayza, N. (2000). Determinants of current account deficits in developing countries. No(23398). The World Bank.
Çoban, H., & Balıkçıoğlu, E. (2016). Triple deficit or twin divergence: A dynamic panel analysis. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 12(1), 271-280.
Downes, D., & Moore, W. R. (2007). Does the exchange rate regime influence the relationship between the output gap and the current account? Applied Economics, 39(15), 1955-1960. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600707035
Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics Aand Statistics, 80(4), 549-560. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557825
Ejder, H. L. & Çaşkurlu, E. (2020). Makroekonomik dengede üçüz açık sorunu: Türkiye için 1975-2015 dönemi ARDL model ile tahmin edilmesi. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 42(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.763883
El-Baz, O. (2014). Empirical investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis: The Egyptian case (1990-2012). MRPA Paper 53428, University Library of Munich, Germany, 1-25. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53428/
Epaphra, M. (2017). The twin deficits hypothesis: An empirical analysis for Tanzania. Romanian Economic Journal, 20(65), 2-34.
Fazlılar, T. A. ve Oral, T. (2020). Türkiye ve PIIGS (Portekiz, İrlanda, İtalya, Yunanistan, İspanya) ülkelerinde dördüz açık analizi [Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi]. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
Fleming, J. M. (1962). Domestic financial policies under fixed and under floating exchange rates. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 10, 369–80. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451968873.024 Forte, F., & Magazzino, C. (2015). Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area. Journal of Social and Economic Development, 17(2), 148-166. 10.1007/s40847-015-0013-4
Güriş, S., Yılgör, M., & Kömüryakan, F. (2019). Üçüz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliğinin analizi: Panel veri yaklaşımı. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi, 8(3), 91-101. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ssrj/issue/47195/607963
Holmes, M. J. (2010). A reassessment of the twin deficits relationship. Applied Economics Letters, 17(12), 1209-1212. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840902845434
Kalim, R., & Hassan, M. S. (2013). What lies behind fiscal deficit: Aa case of Pakistan. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 9(40), 96-113.
Karaçor, Z., Alptekin, V., Akar, T., & Akar, G. (2012). İstikrar mı, istikrarsızlık mı? Türkiye’de üçüz açık analizi. Türkiye Ekonomisi Kurumu 3. Uluslararası Ekonomi Konferansı, 1-3.
Karagöz, H., & Ahmed, S. H. (2021). The triple deficit hypothesis and its effects on economic growth: Case of Turkey. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İİBF dergisi, 11(2), 67-77. https://doi.org/10.47147/ksuiibf.1036399
Karahan, Ö. (2021). Analysing the presence of “Triple Deficit” in Turkey’s economy. International Journal of Economics and Management Systems, 6. 537-546.
Kesgingöz, H., & Ahmed, S. H. (2021). The Triple deficit hypothesis effects on economic growth: Case of Turkey. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(2), 67-77. DOI: 10.47147/ksuiibf.1036399
Kim, C. H., & Kim, D. (2006). Does Korea have twin deficits? Applied Economics Letters, 13(10), 675-680. Kim, S. and Roubini, N. (2003) Twin deficits or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the US. New York University.
Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2008). Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the US. Journal of Iinternational Economics, 74(2), 362-383.
Kiran, B. (2011). On the twin deficits hypothesis: Eevidence from Turkey. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 11(1), 59-66.
Kohler, K. (2022). Capital Flows and the Eurozone's North-South Divide. Politics & Society, 00323292231168251. Lau, E., Mansor, S. A., & Puah, C. H. (2010). Revival of the twin deficits in Asian crisis-affected countries. Economic Issues, 15 (1), 29-53.
Mabula, S., & Mutasa, F. (2019). The Effect of public debt on private investment in Tanzania. African Journal of Economic Review 7(1), 109-135.
Magazzino, C. (2012). The twin deficits phenomenon: Evidence from Italy. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 33(3), 65-80. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2333444 Magoti, E., Mabula, S., & Ngong’ho, S. B. (2020). Triple Deficit Hypothesis: A Panel ARDL and Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Causality for East African Countries. African Journal of Economic Review, 8(1), 144-161. 10.22004/ag.econ.301055
McTeer, B. (2008). «Our triple deficits». National Center for Policy Analaysis, No:613.
Merza, E., Alawin, M., & Bashayreh, A. (2012). The relationship between current account and government budget balance: The case of Kuwait. International Journal of Humanities and Social Ccience, 2(7), 168-177.
Miller, S. M., & Russek, F. S. (1989). Are the twin deficits really related? Contemporary Economic Policy, 7(4), 91-115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1989.tb00577.x
Milne, E., (1977). , The fiscal approach to the balance of payments. Economic Notes, 6(1), 89-107.
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Details

Primary Language	Turkish
Subjects	Growth
Journal Section	Articles
Authors	Deniz Erer 0000-0001-9977-9592
Publication Date	September 27, 2023
Submission Date	December 23, 2022
Published in Issue	Year 2023

Cite

APA	Erer, D. (2023). DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 41(3), 410-431. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1223281
AMA	Erer D. DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. September 2023;41(3):410-431. doi:10.17065/huniibf.1223281
Chicago	Erer, Deniz. “DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 41, no. 3 (September 2023): 410-31. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1223281.
EndNote	Erer D (September 1, 2023) DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 41 3 410–431.
IEEE	D. Erer, “DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR”, Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 410–431, 2023, doi: 10.17065/huniibf.1223281.
ISNAD	Erer, Deniz. “DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 41/3 (September 2023), 410-431. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1223281.
JAMA	Erer D. DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2023;41:410–431.
MLA	Erer, Deniz. “DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 41, no. 3, 2023, pp. 410-31, doi:10.17065/huniibf.1223281.
Vancouver	Erer D. DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2023;41(3):410-31.

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