ARAŞTIRMA-GELİŞTİRME HARCAMALARININ TÜRKİYE İHRACATINA ETKİLERİ
Year 2019,
, 1 - 16, 27.03.2019
Ali Acaravcı
,
Güray Akalin
,
Sinan Erdoğan
Abstract
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde araştırma-geliştirme (AR-GE)
harcamalarının Türkiye kişi başı reel ihracatına etkileri, 1990-2014 dönemi
için gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif (ARDL) modeliyle araştırılmıştır. Ticaret
ortaklarının ortalama kişi başına reel geliri ve reel kur modele kontrol
değişkenleri olarak eklenmiştir. Uzun dönemli katsayı sonuçları, araştırma-geliştirme
(AR-GE) harcamaları ve ticaret ortaklarının ortalama kişi başına reel
gelirinin, Türkiye kişi başı reel ihracatını pozitif; reel kurdaki değer
artışlarının ise Türkiye kişi başı reel ihracatını negatif etkilediğini
göstermektedir.
References
- Dünya Bankası (2017), Dünya Gelişme Göstergeleri (Word Development Indicators) Veri Tabanı. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx, E.T.: 20.03.2017.
- Dickey, D., W.A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, 1057-72.
- Enders, W. (2014), Applied Econometric Time Series, 4. Baskı, USA: John Wiley&Sons, Inc.
- Engle, R.F., C.W.J. Granger (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
- Gandolfo, G. (1998), International Trade Theory and Policy: With 12 Tables, Springer Texts in Business and Economics, ISBN 3-540-64316-8. Heidelberg: Springer.
- Granger, C.W.J., P. Newbold (1974), “Spurios Regressions in Econometrics” Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111–120.
- Göçer, İ. (2013), “Ar-Ge Harcamalarının Yüksek Teknolojili Ürün İhracatı, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Maliye Dergisi, 165, 215-240.
- Hasanov, Z., O. Abada, S. Aktamov (2015), “Impact of Innovativeness of the Country on Export Performance: Evidence from Asian Countries”, IOSR Journal of Business and Management, 17(1), 33-41.
- Ito, K., V. Pucik (1993), “R&D Spending, Domestic Competition, and Export Performance of Japanese Manufacturing Firms”, Strategic Management Journal, 14(1), 61-75.
- Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
- Johansen, S., K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—with Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
- Kaya, V., S. Uğurlu (2013), “Ar-Ge Harcamaları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği, 1990-2011”, Ekev Akademi Dergisi, 17(57), 269-282.
- Krugman, P. (1979), “A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income”, Journal of Political Economy, 87(2), 253-266.
- Kwiatkowski, D., P.C.B. Phillips, P. Schmidt, Y. Shin, (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That the Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159 178.
- Landesmann, M., M. Pfaffermayr (1997), "Technological Competition and Trade Performance" Applied Economics, 29(2), 179-196.
- Le, C.D. (1987), “The Role of R&D in High Technology Trade: An Empirical Analysis”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 15(4), 32–77.
- Lee, J., M.C. Strazicich (2013), “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Economics Bulletin, 33(4), 2483-2492.
- Mullor-Sebastian, A. (1983), “The Product Life Cycle Theory: Empirical Evidence”, Journal of International Business Studies, 14(3), 95 105.
- Narayan, P.K. (2005), “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
- OECD Veri Tabanı (2017), https://data.oecd.org/, E.T.: 20.03.2017.
- Ozturk, I., A. Acaravci (2013), “The Long-Run and Causal Analysis of Energy, Growth, Openness and Financial Development on Carbon Emissions in Turkey”, Energy Economics, 36(1), 262-267.
- Özer, M., N. Çiftçi (2009), “Ar-Ge Harcamaları ve İhracat İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Panel Veri Analizi”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(3), 39-50.
- Perçin, S., A. Karakaya, S. Ağazade (2015), “Türk İmalat Sanayinde İhracat ve İnovasyon Arasındaki İlişki“, International Conference on Eurasian Economies, SESSION 6D: Mikroekonomi II. Rusya: 9-11 Eylül 2015.
- Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis” Econometrica, 57(6), 1361-1401.
- Pesaran, H.M., Y. Shin (1999), Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis in: S.Storm (Ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Chapter 11, Cambridge University Press.
- Pesaran M.H., Shin, Y., R.J. Smith ( 2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289–326.
- Piccardo, C., B. Anna, B. Luigi (2013), “Innovative Capacity and Export Performance: Exploring Heterogeneity Along the Export Intensity Distribution”, No: 371, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Posner, M.V. (1961), “International Trade and Technical Change”, Oxford Economic Papers, 13(3), 323-341.
- Sungur, O., H.İ. Aydın, M.V. Eren (2016), “Türkiye’de Ar-Ge, İnovasyon, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 21(1), 173-192.
- Şahbaz, A., R. Yanar, U. Adıgüzel (2014), “Ar-Ge Harcamaları ve İleri Teknoloji Mal İhracatı İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi”, Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 23(1), 47-60.
- Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (2017), Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi. http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/, E.T.: 20.03.2017.
- Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (2015), Araştırma-Geliştirme Faaliyetleri Araştırması, 2015. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=18661, E.T.: 09.04.2017.
- Uzay, N., M. Demir, E. Yıldırım (2012), “İhracat Performansı Açısından Teknolojik Yeniliğin Önemi: Türkiye İmalat Sanayi Örneği”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 13(1), 147-160.
- Vernon, R. (1966), “International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, 190-207.
- Vogelsang, T.J., P. Perron, (1998), “Additonal Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time”, International Economic Review, 39(4), 1073-1100.
- Wagner, J. (2008), “Exports and Firm Characteristics–First Evidence from Fractional Probit Panel Estimates”, University of Lüneburg, Working Paper Series in Economics, 97. www.leuphana.de/vwl/papers, E.T.: 25.04.2017.
- Yıldırım, E., F. Kesikoğlu (2012), “Ar-Ge Harcamaları İle İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri: Türkiye Örneğinde Panel Nedensellik Testi Kanıtları”, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 32(1), 165-180.
- Yüksel, S. (2017), “The Impacts of Research and Development Expenses on Export and Economic Growth”, International Business and Accounting Research Journal, 1(1), 1-8.
- Zivot, E., D.W.K. Andrews (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.
THE EFFECTS OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES ON TURKISH EXPORT
Year 2019,
, 1 - 16, 27.03.2019
Ali Acaravcı
,
Güray Akalin
,
Sinan Erdoğan
Abstract
In this study, the effects
of research and development (R&D) expenditures on Turkish real export per
capita in Turkish economy were explored for the period 1990–2014 by using the
autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Average per capita real income of
trading partners and real exchange rate were added to model as control
variables. The overall results from the estimated long run coefficients pointed
out that research and development (R&D) expenditures and average per capita
real income of trading partners affect positively, and real exchange rate
affects negatively to Turkish real export per capita.
References
- Dünya Bankası (2017), Dünya Gelişme Göstergeleri (Word Development Indicators) Veri Tabanı. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx, E.T.: 20.03.2017.
- Dickey, D., W.A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, 1057-72.
- Enders, W. (2014), Applied Econometric Time Series, 4. Baskı, USA: John Wiley&Sons, Inc.
- Engle, R.F., C.W.J. Granger (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
- Gandolfo, G. (1998), International Trade Theory and Policy: With 12 Tables, Springer Texts in Business and Economics, ISBN 3-540-64316-8. Heidelberg: Springer.
- Granger, C.W.J., P. Newbold (1974), “Spurios Regressions in Econometrics” Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111–120.
- Göçer, İ. (2013), “Ar-Ge Harcamalarının Yüksek Teknolojili Ürün İhracatı, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Maliye Dergisi, 165, 215-240.
- Hasanov, Z., O. Abada, S. Aktamov (2015), “Impact of Innovativeness of the Country on Export Performance: Evidence from Asian Countries”, IOSR Journal of Business and Management, 17(1), 33-41.
- Ito, K., V. Pucik (1993), “R&D Spending, Domestic Competition, and Export Performance of Japanese Manufacturing Firms”, Strategic Management Journal, 14(1), 61-75.
- Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
- Johansen, S., K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—with Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
- Kaya, V., S. Uğurlu (2013), “Ar-Ge Harcamaları ile İhracat Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği, 1990-2011”, Ekev Akademi Dergisi, 17(57), 269-282.
- Krugman, P. (1979), “A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income”, Journal of Political Economy, 87(2), 253-266.
- Kwiatkowski, D., P.C.B. Phillips, P. Schmidt, Y. Shin, (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That the Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159 178.
- Landesmann, M., M. Pfaffermayr (1997), "Technological Competition and Trade Performance" Applied Economics, 29(2), 179-196.
- Le, C.D. (1987), “The Role of R&D in High Technology Trade: An Empirical Analysis”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 15(4), 32–77.
- Lee, J., M.C. Strazicich (2013), “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Economics Bulletin, 33(4), 2483-2492.
- Mullor-Sebastian, A. (1983), “The Product Life Cycle Theory: Empirical Evidence”, Journal of International Business Studies, 14(3), 95 105.
- Narayan, P.K. (2005), “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
- OECD Veri Tabanı (2017), https://data.oecd.org/, E.T.: 20.03.2017.
- Ozturk, I., A. Acaravci (2013), “The Long-Run and Causal Analysis of Energy, Growth, Openness and Financial Development on Carbon Emissions in Turkey”, Energy Economics, 36(1), 262-267.
- Özer, M., N. Çiftçi (2009), “Ar-Ge Harcamaları ve İhracat İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Panel Veri Analizi”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(3), 39-50.
- Perçin, S., A. Karakaya, S. Ağazade (2015), “Türk İmalat Sanayinde İhracat ve İnovasyon Arasındaki İlişki“, International Conference on Eurasian Economies, SESSION 6D: Mikroekonomi II. Rusya: 9-11 Eylül 2015.
- Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis” Econometrica, 57(6), 1361-1401.
- Pesaran, H.M., Y. Shin (1999), Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis in: S.Storm (Ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Chapter 11, Cambridge University Press.
- Pesaran M.H., Shin, Y., R.J. Smith ( 2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289–326.
- Piccardo, C., B. Anna, B. Luigi (2013), “Innovative Capacity and Export Performance: Exploring Heterogeneity Along the Export Intensity Distribution”, No: 371, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Posner, M.V. (1961), “International Trade and Technical Change”, Oxford Economic Papers, 13(3), 323-341.
- Sungur, O., H.İ. Aydın, M.V. Eren (2016), “Türkiye’de Ar-Ge, İnovasyon, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 21(1), 173-192.
- Şahbaz, A., R. Yanar, U. Adıgüzel (2014), “Ar-Ge Harcamaları ve İleri Teknoloji Mal İhracatı İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi”, Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 23(1), 47-60.
- Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (2017), Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi. http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/, E.T.: 20.03.2017.
- Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (2015), Araştırma-Geliştirme Faaliyetleri Araştırması, 2015. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=18661, E.T.: 09.04.2017.
- Uzay, N., M. Demir, E. Yıldırım (2012), “İhracat Performansı Açısından Teknolojik Yeniliğin Önemi: Türkiye İmalat Sanayi Örneği”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 13(1), 147-160.
- Vernon, R. (1966), “International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, 190-207.
- Vogelsang, T.J., P. Perron, (1998), “Additonal Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time”, International Economic Review, 39(4), 1073-1100.
- Wagner, J. (2008), “Exports and Firm Characteristics–First Evidence from Fractional Probit Panel Estimates”, University of Lüneburg, Working Paper Series in Economics, 97. www.leuphana.de/vwl/papers, E.T.: 25.04.2017.
- Yıldırım, E., F. Kesikoğlu (2012), “Ar-Ge Harcamaları İle İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri: Türkiye Örneğinde Panel Nedensellik Testi Kanıtları”, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 32(1), 165-180.
- Yüksel, S. (2017), “The Impacts of Research and Development Expenses on Export and Economic Growth”, International Business and Accounting Research Journal, 1(1), 1-8.
- Zivot, E., D.W.K. Andrews (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.