THE DETERMINANTS OF OIL DEMAND: EVIDENCE FROM ITALY

Year 2017, , 31 - 51, 29.12.2017

Muhammed Şehid Görüş Önder Özgür

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.372359

Abstract

The main purpose of this
paper is to estimate price and income elasticities of crude oil demand in the
Italian economy between 1975 and 2014. The Bound Test is employed as an econometric estimation method. According to Bound
Test result, a cointegration relationship has been
found between oil consumption, oil prices,
and real income. Empirical findings show that the long-run income elasticity and price elasticity of oil demand are
statistically insignificant in Italy. In
addition, price and income elasticities of oil demand estimated as
negative-inelastic and positive-inelastic in the short run, respectively. Thus,
crude oil can be defined as a necessity
good for Italian consumers over the short term.
Also, Error Correction Term (ECT) is
estimated to be -1.18. According to ECT, a deviation from the long run equilibrium level of oil demand is corrected about one year later. Italy is an
energy dependent country and imports most of it. Since crude oil is necessity, the government should diversify
energy sources which are consumed in the entire country and/or undertake policies to increase energy efficiency.

Keywords

Bound test, cointegration, Italy, oil demand

PETROL TALEBİNİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: İTALYA ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Bu
çalışmanın temel amacı 1975 ve 2014 dönemi için İtalya ekonomisindeki petrol
talebinin fiyat ve gelir esnekliklerini tahmin etmektir. Bu amaç için Sınır
Testi ekonometrik tahmin yöntemi olarak kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara
göre, petrol tüketimi, petrol fiyatları ve reel gelir seviyesi arasında bir
eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ampirik sonuçlara göre, petrol
talebinin fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri uzun dönemde istatistiki olarak
anlamsızdır. Bunun yanında, kısa dönemde ise fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri
sırasıyla negatif-sert ve pozitif-sert olarak tahmin edilmiştir. Bu yüzden, ham
petrol kısa dönemde İtalyan tüketiciler için zorunlu mallar arasında gösterilebilir.
Bununla birlikte, Hata Düzeltme Terimi (HDT) -1.18 olarak hesaplanmıştır.
HDT’ye göre, petrol talebinin uzun dönem dengesindeki bir sapma yaklaşık bir
sene sonra dengeye gelmektedir. İtalya, enerjiye bağımlı bir ülkedir ve
tüketiminin çoğunu ithalat yoluyla karşılamaktadır. Ham petrolün zorunlu mallar
arasında yer almasından dolayı, İtalyan hükümeti ülkedeki enerji kaynaklarını
çeşitlendirmeli ve/veya enerji verimliliğini arttırıcı politikalar
üstlenmelidir.

Keywords

Sınır testi, eşbütünleşme, İtalya, petrol taleb

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