BASIC DETERMINANTS OF SERVICES EXPORT IN TURKISH ECONOMY: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Year 2021, Volume: 39 Issue: 3, 441 - 458, 29.09.2021

Aylin Koca , Nurtaç Yıldırım

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.835921

Cited By: 4

Abstract

The service sector is the most dynamic sector in both developed and developing economies because of its increasing share of national income, employment and its international trade potential. In developing economies such as Turkey, it is important to analyze the trade dynamics of the services sector in order to increase foreign currency revenues and to design appropriate policies for the development of the sector. This study investigates the relationship between services export and its main determinants in Turkey. The relation between services export and main determinants have been examined using quarterly data for the period between 1998:1 and 2019:4 by cointegration and causality analysis. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, there is a causality relationship from GDP, real effective exchange rate index, and foreign direct investments to services export in the short run. However, there is no causality relationship from education expenditures to services exports.

Keywords

services sector, international trade in services, services export, VECM, Turkey

TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE HİZMET İHRACATININ TEMEL BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ

Abstract

Hizmet sektörü, hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde milli gelir ve istihdam içerisinde giderek artan payının yanı sıra taşıdığı uluslararası ticaret potansiyeli nedeniyle de en dinamik sektör konumundadır. Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde, hizmet ihracatından elde edilen döviz gelirlerinin artırılması amacıyla sektörün ticaret dinamiklerinin analiz edilmesinin ve sektöre yönelik uygun politikalar geliştirilmesinin, önem taşıdığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1998:1–2019:4 yılları arası çeyreklik verilerle hizmet ihracatı ile temel belirleyicileri arasındaki ilişki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizleri ile test edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre kısa dönemde GSYİH, reel efektif döviz kuru endeksi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardan hizmet ihracat gelirlerine doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur. Ancak eğitim harcamalarından hizmet ihracatına doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır.

Keywords

hizmet sektörü, uluslararası hizmet ticareti, hizmet ihracatı, VECM, Türkiye

References

• Abasimi, I., V. Long, S. Agus, L. Xuan (2019), "Determinants of Export Service in Selected West African Countries", International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, 5(2), 39-47.
• Ahmad, S. A., S.R. Kaliappan, N.W. Ismail (2017), “Determinants of Service Export in Selected Developing Asian Countries”, International Journal of Business and Society, 18(1), 113-132.
• Ahmadzadeh, K., B. Knerr, K. Yavari, A. Asari, B. Sahabi (2012), “Competitiveness and Factors Affecting in Services Export”, Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(10), 10793-10802.
• Arnold, J., B. S. Javorcik, A. Mattoo (2006), The Productivity Effects of Services Liberalization: Evidence from the Czech Republic, World Bank Working Paper.
• Aslan, M.H. (1998), Hizmet Ekonomisi, İstanbul, Alfa Yayınları.
• Bilgiç, E. (2019), “İnternet Teknolojisinin Türk Hizmet İhracatı Üzerindeki Etkisi”, Başkent Üniversitesi Ticari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(1), 22-36.
• Burger, M. J., M. J. P. M Thissen, F. G. Van Oort, D. Diodato (2014), “The Magnitude and Distance Decay of Trade in Goods and Services: New Evidence for European Countries”, Spatial Economic Analysis, 9(3), 231–259.
• Covaci, G., S. Moldovan (2015), “Determinants of Service Exports of Lithuania: A Gravity Model Approach”, Sse Riga Student Research Papers.
• Çatalbaş, N. (2005), “Uluslararası Hizmetler Ticaretinin Serbestleştirilmesi ve Gelişme Yolundaki Ülkelere Etkileri: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Eskişehir.
• Çeştepe, H., H. Vergil, H. Ergün (2012), “Hizmet Ticaretinin Büyümeye Etkisi: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 3(4), 91-105.
• Dickey, D. A., W. A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
• Dünya Kalkınma Göstergeleri, Dünya Bankası: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators, E.T.: 28.01.2021.
• Francois, J., B. Hoekman (2010), “Services Trade and Policy”, Journal of Economic Literature, 48(3), 642-692.
• Freund, C., D. Weinhold (2002), “The Internet and International Trade in Services”, The America Economic Review, 92(2), 236-240.
• Gregory, A.W., B.E. Hansen (1996), ‘‘Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts’’, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
• Grünfeld, L.A., A. Moxnes (2003), The Intangible Globalization: Explaining The Patterns of International Trade in Services, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Working Papers, No: 657.
• Harris, H., R. Sollis (2003), Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting, Wiley, West Sussex.
• Hindley, B., A. Smith (1984), “Comparative Advantage and Trade in Services”, The World Economy, 5(4), 369-390.
• Kandilov, I. T., T. Grennes (2010), “The Determinants of Service Exports from Central and Eastern Europe”, Economics of Transition, 18(4), 763-794.
• Karam, F., C. Zaki (2012), “On The Determinants of Trade in Services: Evidence from The Mena Region”, Applied Economics, 45(33), 4662-4676.
• Kimura, F., H. H. Lee (2006), “The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services”, Review of World Economics, 142(1), 92-121.
• Kuznets, S. (1973), “Modern Economic Growth: Findings And Reflections”, The American Economic Review, 63(3), 247-258.
• Lee, J., M.C. Strazicich (2003), “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
• Lee, J., M.C. Strazicich (2004), “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Appalachian State University Working Papers, 04-17, 1-15.
• Lejour, A.M., P.M Smith (2008), International Trade in Services Editorial Introduction, J Ind Compet Trade.
• Lumsdaine, R.L., D.H. Papell (1997), “Multiple Trend Breaks and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218.
• Nielson, J., D. Taglioni (2004), Services Trade Liberalisation: Identifying Opportunities and Gains, OECD Trade Policy Working Papers.
• Mattoo, A., R. M. Stern (2007), A Handbook of International Trade in Services, New York: Oxford University Press.
• Melvin, J. (1989), “Trade in Producer Services: A Heckscher-Ohlin Approach”, Journal of Political Economy, 97(5), 1180-1196.
• Pham, N. V., H. T. Vũ (2016), “Analyzing the Determinants of Service Trade Flows between Vietnam and the European Union: A Gravity Model Approach”, VNU Journal of Science: Economics and Business, 30(5E), 51-64.
• Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401.
• Phillips, P. C. B., P. Perron (1988), “Testing For A Unit Root In Time Series Regression” Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346.
• Plotnikov, V., A. Volkova (2014), “Service Economy and the Specifics of its Development in Russia”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 14, 18-23.
• Shingal, A. (2010), How much Do Aggrements Matter for Services Trade, Working Paper Series. Bern: World Bank Institute.
• Toda, H.Y., T. Yamamoto (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250. TCMB Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/, E.T.: 17.11.2020.
• Walsh, K. (2006), Trade in Services: Does Gravity Hold? A Gravity Model Approach to Estimating Barriers to Services Trade, IIIS Discussion Paper, No: 183.
• Dünya Ticaret Örgütü [WTO] (2019), The Future of Services Trade, World Trade Report, 227.
• Yılancı, V., B. Özcan (2010), “Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi”, C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 11(1), 21-33.
• Zivot, E., D.W.K. Andrews (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock and Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.