The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Services Trade: EAGLE Countries

Year 2023, Volume: 41 Issue: 4, 630 - 649, 24.12.2023

Aylin Koca , Deniz Sevinç

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1265078

Abstract

International services trade offers numerous advantages to developing countries in achieving their objectives of economic growth and development, employment expansion, and technology diffusion. In order to boost the foreign exchange income of developing countries from services trade, it is essential to investigate the effects of exchange rates and exchange rate volatility on services trade. This study aims to examine the relationship between international services trade and exchange rate volatility in EAGLE countries for the period between 2010Q2 and 2020Q4. Exchange rate volatility was measured using the EGARCH model, and its relationship with services imports and exports was analyzed using panel data analysis methods. According to the results, exchange rate volatility in EAGLE countries has a positive effect on the import and export of services, while the exchange rate has a negative effect. In other words, an increase in the exchange rate volatility weakens the services trade, but an increase in the exchange rate strengthens it. This study is crucial for evaluating the effects of exchange rate risk on international services trade in developing economies.

Keywords

International Services Trade, Exchange Rate Volatility, EAGLE Countries, Panel Data Analysis

Döviz Kuru Volatilitesinin Hizmet Ticareti Üzerindeki Etkisi: EAGLE Ülkeleri

Abstract

Uluslararası hizmet ticareti gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma, istihdam artışı, teknoloji transferi gibi hedeflerinin gerçekleştirilmesi için birçok avantaj sunmaktadır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin hizmet ticaretinden elde ettikleri döviz gelirlerini artırma amacıyla döviz kurunun ve kurdaki volatilitenin hizmet ticareti üzerindeki etkisinin detaylı biçimde araştırılması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, EAGLE ülkelerinde uluslararası hizmet ticareti ve döviz kuru volatilitesi arasındaki ilişkinin 2010Q2-2020Q4 dönemi için incelenmesidir. Döviz kuru volatilitesi EGARCH modeli ile elde edilmiş, döviz kuru volatilitesinin hizmet ithalat ve ihracatı ile olan ilişkisi ise panel veri analiz yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre EAGLE ülkelerinde döviz kuru volatilitesi, hizmet ithalat ve ihracatını pozitif; döviz kuru ise negatif etkilemektedir. Diğer bir ifade ile, döviz kurundaki volatilitenin hizmet ticaretini zayıflattığı ancak döviz kurundaki artışın güçlendirdiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışma gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde döviz kuru riskinin uluslararası hizmet ticaret üzerindeki etkilerinin değerlendirilmesi açısından önem taşımaktadır.

Keywords

Uluslararası Hizmet Ticareti, Döviz Kuru Volatilitesi, EAGLE Ülkeleri, Panel Veri Analizi

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