An Investigation OfStationarity Properties Of The Turkish Tourism Income Variable

Year 2017, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 37 - 49, 04.10.2017

Hasan Murat Ertuğrul , Selim Yıldırım , Fatih Ayhan

https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.336764

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Tourism has a
significant impact on economic growth as put forth by the tourism- led growth
hypothesis. Turkey’s earnings from tourism were 31.5 billion dollars in 2015
according to TURKSTAT. This implies that tourism is an important industry for
Turkey and has a significant impact on economy. Therefore, the question whether
a policy implementation in tourism is long-lasting or not is critical for both
the industry and whole economy. This study researches the persistence of
policies in tourism industry, employing tourism income series for period of 2009M1-2015M12
and tests the stationarity of this series using traditional unit root tests as
well as a wavelet-based unit root test developed by Fan and Gencay (2010). Both
seasonally adjusted and unadjusted series have been used. The empirical results
point out that the traditional unit root test has a proclivity to report that
tourism income series is I(1) or non-stationary. On the other hand, the
wavelet-base unit root test indicates that tourism income is stationary. The empirical
result of wavelet-based test implies that impact of a shock on this sector is
transitory. The income in tourism industry will return more or less back to its
meaning the following year.

Keywords

tourism income; unit root; wavelet

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