Determinants of Freight Rates: A Study on the Baltic Dry Index

Year 2017, Volume: 4 Issue: 2 (ICEFM 2017 Özel Sayısı / Special Issue of ICEFM 2017), 17 - 32, 01.02.2018

Berk Yıldız , Umur Bucak

https://doi.org/10.17336/igusbd.317006

Cited By: 2

Abstract

The aim of this study is to find out the
determinants of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which is published by the Baltic
Exchange in the period of 2003-2016 by a multiple OLS regression analysis.  For this purpose, the most important factors
that are considered to have an impact on BDI, are analysed by the help of
E-views 9.0 program thereby establishing optimum model. Empirical findings indicate
that phosphate rock and barley have the highest impact on BDI. Additionally,
the results of the analysis also showed that, while crude oil prices which is
the core cost factor has positive effect on the BDI, cement and maize prices
have  significant but negative effects. 

Keywords

Baltic Dry Index, Freight Rates, Freight Rates, Main Bulks, Multiple Regression (OLS) Analysis, Seaborne Trade

Navlun Fiyatlarına Etki Eden Faktörler: Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi Üzerine Bir Çalışma

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Baltık Borsası tarafından yayınlanan Baltık Kuru Yük
Endeksi’ne etki eden faktörlerin tespit edilmesidir.2003-2016 dönemine ilişkin
verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada endekse etkisi araştırılan en önemli faktörler
çoklu regresyon analizi yöntemi ile E-views 9.0 programı kullanılarak ile test
edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre fosfat kaya ile arpa fiyatlarında
yaşanan değişimler Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi’ne etki eden en önemli faktörlerdir.
Bununla birlikte, sektörün temel maliyet unsuru olan ham petrol fiyatlarının
Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etkisinin çimento ve mısır
fiyatlarındaki değişimin ise negatif yönlü bir etkilerinin olduğu tespit
edilmiştir.  

Keywords

Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi, Navlun Fiyatları, Temel Yükler, Çoklu Regresyon Analizi, Denizyolu Ticareti

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