STOCK MARKET AS AN INDICATOR OF MARITIME TRANSPORT DEMAND: AN EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY AND ISTFIX REGION

Year 2018, Volume: 20 Issue: 4, 77 - 88, 31.10.2018

Sadık Özlen Başer , Abdullah Açık

Abstract

The aim of this study
is to determine asymmetric causal relationship between Turkish economy and
freight rates in the ISTFIX region by separating the positive and negative
shocks in the variables. Therefore, asymmetric causality test developed by
Hatemi-J is used. Unlike other studies, some stock market variables in Turkey
are selected as economic indicators and included in the analysis. Selected
stock market variables are BIST 100, BIST Industrial and BIST Transportation
indices. The data set used in the study consists of 558 observations on a
weekly basis covering the dates between 1st January 2018 and 10th September
2018. As a result of the study, while causal relationships are expected between
both negative and positive shocks, only negative shocks in all three stock
exchanges are found to cause negative shocks in the ISTFIX index. This results
suggest that negative news in the economy is felt directly in the maritime
market, but the impact of positive news is not immediately reflected.
Furthermore, it is thought that the producers refrain from ordering more raw
materials when they encounter negative shocks in the market and negatively
affect the demand for sea transportation, which also causes to decrease in the
freight rates. These results also indicate that the stock values in Turkey may
be a leading indicator for the freight market in the ISTFIX region.

Keywords

Asymmetric causality, ISTFIX, Stock exchange, Freight market

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