Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişim, Parasal Göstergeler, Enflasyon ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2021, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 1 - 11, 30.03.2021

Ayşe Ergin Ünal

Abstract

Küreselleşmeyle beraber artan uluslararası entegrasyon hareketleri, ülke makroekonomik performansını etkileyen değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü doğru belirlemeyi gerekli kılmaktadır. Dışa açık ekonomilerde özellikle enerji girdisi olarak kullanılan petrol, pek çok makroekonomik gösterge ile ilişkilendirilmekte ve politika yapıcıları birtakım kararlar almak durumunda bırakmaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada petrol ithalatçısı ülkelerden biri olan Türkiye’de alınan para politikası kararları, enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme göstergelerindeki değişimlerin, ham petrol fiyatları ile ilintisi incelenmektedir. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi aylık 2006:01-2020:01 verileri kullanılarak ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımı ile sınanırken yine değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir.

Keywords

Ham Petrol Fiyatları, ARDL, Toda Yamamoto Nedensellik Testleri, Ekonomik Büyüme, Parasal Göstergeler

Change in Crude Oil Prices, Monetary Indicators, Inflation and Growth Relations: Example of Turkey

Abstract

Increasing international integration movements with globalization make it necessary to accurately determine the direction of the relationship between the variables affecting the country's macroeconomic performance. Oil, especially used as an energy input in open economies, is associated with many macroeconomic indicators, leaving policy makers to make a number of decisions. For this purpose, the study examines the relationship between monetary policy decisions taken in Turkey, one of the countries that import oil, changes in inflation and economic growth indicators, and crude oil prices. The cointegration relationship between the variables monthly 2006:01-2020:01 the causality relationship between variables was analyzed using the Toda Yamamoto Causality Test.

Keywords

Crude Oil Prices, ARDL, Toda Yamamoto Causality Tests, Economic Growth,, Monetary Indicators

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