Comparison of Drought Indices in the Case of the Ceyhan Basin

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 113 - 125, 15.06.2021

Mehmet Dikici , Murat Aksel

https://doi.org/10.30897/ijegeo.792379

Cited By: 8

Abstract

The issue of mitigating the expected effects of drought has become quite prominent within the scope of planning, development, and management of water resources affected negatively by climate change. An integrated management approach must be planned primarily for sustainable water management. To conduct drought risk analyses, a sufficient amount of data must be available. The historical process of the basin must be known, and there must be a plan that is assessed with several indices. In this study, we carried out drought risk analyses on the Ceyhan Basin using meteorological, hydrogeological, and hydrological data to determine indices and indicators available in the literature. We compared indices, examined the correlations among them, and reached an outcome. All of the indices used in the study showed that the drought was in the same periodicity in the basin, and a slow progressing drought occurred in the basin. When the trend of the last 50 years of precipitation in the basin is analyzed, it is evident that there is a general decrease. In a general view, decision-makers shall provide drought management plans for the basin.

Keywords

basin, water resources, threshold value, drought index, drought analysis

References

• Bayazıt M and Önöz B (2008) Hydrology of Flood and Drought. Istanbul
• Bayissa, Y.; Maskey, S.; Tadesse, T.; Van Andel, S.J.; Moges, S.; Van Griensven, A.; Solomatine, D. (2018) Comparison of the Performance of Six Drought Indices in Characterizing Historical Drought for the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Geosciences Volume 8, 81 https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8030081
• Besselaar P, Haylock M. R, van der Schrier, G, Klein T. A.M.G. (2011) A European Daily High-Resolution Observational Gridded Data Set of Sea Level Pressure. Journal Geophysical Research https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015468.
• Bloomfield J, and Marchant B (2013) Analysis of groundwater drought building on the standardized precipitation index approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 4769-4787 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4769-2013
• Daly C, Gibson W. P Taylor G.H, Johnson G.L, Pasteris P. A (2002) Knowledge-based Approach to the Statistical Mapping of Climate. Climate Research, 99-113 http://doi.org/10.3354/cr022099
• Daly C, Halbleib M, Smith J.I, Gibson W. P, Doggett M. K, Taylor G. H, Curtis J, Pasteris P. P (2008). Physiographically Sensitive Mapping of Climatological Temperature and Precipitation Across The Conterminous United States. Journal of Climatology http://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1688
• Dikici M (2013) Analysis of the Dry Season Lengths of Precipitations in Istanbul, Istanbul International Solid Waste, Water and Wastewater Congress, May 22-24, 2013, Haliç Congress Centre, ISTANBUL
• Doğan S (2013) Spatio-temporal analysis of the drought categorization of Konya closed basin (Doctoral Dissertation), Institute of Science, Selçuk University, 107 pages
• EC (2007) Drought Management Plan Report Including Agricultural, Drought Indicators and Climate Change Aspects. European Commission General Directorate of Environment. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/quantity/pdf/dmp_report.pdf addres
• Gibbs W and Maher J (1967) Rainfall deciles as drought indicators. Australia Bureau of Meteorology
• GWP (2015) Guidelines for the preparation of Drought Management Plans. Development and implementation in the context of the EU Water Framework Directive. Global Water Partnership Central and Easter Europe. http://www.droughtmanagement.info/liter.
• Heyes M, Svoboda M, Wall N, Widhalm M (2011) The Lincoln declaration on drought indices: universal meteorological drought index recommended, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92(4), 485-488 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3103.1
• Jehanzaib, M.; Kim, T.W., (2020a) Exploring the influence of climate change-induced drought propagation on wetlands. Ecological Engineering Volume 149 105799
• Jehanzaib, M.; Sattar, M.N.; Lee, J.H.; Kim, T.W., (2020b) Investigating effect of climate change on drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought using multi-model ensemble projections. Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 34, 7-21.
• Jehanzaib, M., S. A. Shah, H.-H. Kwon, and T.-W. Kim, (2020c): Investigating the influence of natural events and anthropogenic activities on hydrological drought in South Korea. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 31, 85-96, doi: 10.3319/TAO.2019.08.13.01.
• Jehanzaib, M.; Shah, S.A.; Yoo, J.; Kim, T.W., (2020d) Investigating the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought using non-stationary approaches. J. Hydrol. 588, 125052.
• Lee, J., Kim, N.W., Kim, T. et al. (2019) Feasible Ranges of Runoff Curve Numbers for Korean Watersheds Based on the Interior Point Optimization Algorithm. KSCE J Civ Eng 23, 5257–5265. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-019-0901-9.
• Lloyd‐Hughes B and Saunders M (2002) A drought climatology for Europe. International Journal of Climatology, 22(13), 1571-1592 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.846
• McKee T, Doesken N, Kleist J (1993) The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales, Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology (17–22January 1993). Anaheim, CA. Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society https://doi.org/10.12691/ajrd-4-6-1.
• Mendicino G, Senatore A, Versace P.A (2008) Groundwater Resource Index (GRI) for drought monitoring and forecasting in a mediterranean climate. Journal of Hydrology, 357(3), 282-302 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.05.005
• MGM (2017) Turkish State Meteorological Service, Obtained from below link; https://www.mgm.gov.tr/iklim/iklim- siniflandirmalari.aspx
• Ogallo L and Gbeckor-Kove N (1989) World Climate Applications Programme (WCAP),07. Drought and desertification, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), (WMO/TD, 286).
• Palmer W (1965) Meteorological drought. U.S. Research Paper No. 45. Washington, DC: US Weather Bureau
• Sheffield J and Wood E. F (2007). Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Clim. Dyn., 31 pp. 79-105, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0340-z SYGM (2018) www.suyonetimi.gov.tr, Archive of the General Directorate of Water Management, Ankara, Turkey
• Şen Z (2015) Applied Drought Modeling, Prediction, and Mitigation (Chapter 2 - Basic Drought Indicators), Amsterdam: Elsevier
• Thom H (1958) A Note on the Gamma Distribution. Monthly Weather Review, 86(4), 117-122
• Thom H (1966) Some Methods of Climatological Analysis. WMO Technical Note No. 81. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization
• Thornthwaite C (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical Review, 38(1), 55-94
• UNDP (2016) Drought Risk Management, United Nations Development Programme
• Van Loon A (2015) Hydrological drought explained. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 2(4), 359-392 https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1085
• Vicente-Serrano M, Beguería S, López-More (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 23(7), 1696-1718 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
• Wilhite (2000) Droughts: A Global Assesment (Hazards and Disasters), Routledge
• Wilhite D A, Sivakumar M, Pulwarty R (2014) Managing drought risk in a changing climate: the role of National Drought Policy. Weather and Climate Extremes, s. 3:4-13 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.01.002
• Willeke G E, Hosking J, Wallis J, Guttman N (1994) The National Drought Atlas, Institute for Water Resources Report 94–NDS–4, U,S, Army Corps of Engineers
• WMO (2012) WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2012. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization
• WMO (2016) Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices (M, Svoboda and B,A, Fuchs), Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), Integrated Drought Management Tools and Guidelines Series 2
• Zargar A, Sadiq R, Naser B, Khan F (2011) A review of drought indices, Environmental Reviews, 19(1):333-349 https://doi.org/10.1139/a11-013