EFFECTS OF RESTRICTION MEASURES ON MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY IMPLEMENTED DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN TURKEY: A RESEARCH THROUGH NATIONAL DATA INCLUDING ONE YEAR

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 146 - 156, 29.08.2022

Hakan Tüzün

https://doi.org/10.33457/ijhsrp.1084533

Abstract

This research is aimed to determine effects of restriction measures implemented in Turkey during COVID 19 pandemic throughout detecting variations in the “number of cases daily”, “test positivity rate daily”, and “number of death daily” according to different restriction periods. In order to be able to analyze on the basis of cases declared as standard, the periods of restriction measures between November 18, 2020 and November 17, 2021 were included in the research. The data of the Ministry of Health was used as the source. When making statistical assessment for the "number of cases per day" and the "test positivity rate per day", we evaluated each restriction period to cover the first 10 days after the end of this period. When comparing the “daily death numbers”, we evaluated each restriction period to include the daily death numbers for the first 21 days after the end of that period. The highest means were seen for all three parameters examined during “revised local decision-making phase”. These mean are 57,396 for number of cases per day, 18.4 for test positivity rate per day, 351 for number of deaths per day. This period is the only period in which the means for "number of cases" and "number of deaths" are higher than the first period, which is the reference period, and for these parameters, a statistically significant difference is detected with the reference period (p<0.001). There is a decrease in the means for all three parameters examined during “lockdown periods” and after this period that is “gradual normalization period”. Restriction measures have played a role in reducing the mortality and morbidity associated with COVID-19. The increase in the morbidity and mortality during periods when epidemic management is partially decentralized can provide evidence-based data for assessments of the effects of decentralization.

Keywords

restriction measures, COVID-19, Turkey, decentralisation

References

• T.C Sağlık Bakanlığı. (2022, Feb 2) TC Sağlık Bakanlığı COVID-19 Bilgilendirme Platformu Genel Koronavirüs Tablosu. [Online]. Available: https://covid19.saglik.gov.tr/TR-66935/genel-koronavirus-tablosu.html
• T.C İçişleri Bakanlığı. (2022, Feb 2) TC İç İşleri Bakanlığı Duyuruları [Online]. Available: https://www.icisleri.gov.tr/duyurular
• T.C Sağlık Bakanlığı. (2022, Feb 2) COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 Enfeksiyonu) Temaslı Takibi, Salgın Yönetimi, Evde Hasta İzlemi ve Filyasyon. [Online] Available: https://covid19.saglik.gov.tr/Eklenti/41623/0/covid-19rehberitemaslitakibievdehastaizlemivefilyasyon-021021pdf.pdf
• ECDC (2022, Feb 2) Guidelines for non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK. [Online]. Available: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-guidelines-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-september-2020.pdf
• World Health Organization. (2022, Feb 2) Vaccine Equity. [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/campaigns/vaccine-equity
• World Health Organization (2022, Feb 2) Therapeutics and COVID-19: living guideline: [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-therapeutics-2022.1.
• Oka T., Wei W., Zhu D., "The effect of human mobility restrictions on the COVID-19 transmission network in China," PloS one, 16 (7), e0254403, 2021.
• Erim, D. O., Oke, G. A., Adisa, A. O., Odukoya, O., Ayo-Yusuf, O. A., Erim, T. N. et all. "Associations of Government-Mandated Closures and Restrictions With Aggregate Mobility Trends and SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Nigeria," JAMA Netw Open, 4 (1), e2032101, 2021.
• Li Y., Wang X., Campbell H., Nair H. "The association of community mobility with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modeling study across 330 local UK authorities," Lancet Digit Health, 3 (10), e676-e683, 2021.
• Oh, J., Lee, H. Y., Khuong, Q. L., Markuns, J. F., Bullen, C., Barrios, O. E. A. et all. "Mobility restrictions were associated with reductions in COVID-19 incidence early in the pandemic: evidence from a real-time evaluation in 34 countries," Sci Rep, 11(1), 13717, 2021.
• Kayı İ., Sakarya S. "Policy analysis of suppression and mitigation strategies in the management of an outbreak through the example of COVID-19 pandemic," Infect Dis Clin Microbiol, 2(1), 30-41, 2020.
• Güner R., Hasanoğlu I., Aktaş F. "Evaluating the efficiency of public policy measures against COVID-19," Turk J Med Sci, 51(1), 3229-3237, 2021.
• Ilhan M. N., Tüzün H., Kılıç R., Yıldırım N., "Nonpharmaceutical interventions in Turkey and worldwide during COVID-19 pandemic," Turk J Med Sci, 51 (1) 3207-3214, 2021.
• T.C Sağlık Bakanlığı. (2022, Feb 13) Covid-19 Genel Bilgiler, Epidemiyoloji ve Tanı. [Online] Available: https://covid19.saglik.gov.tr/Eklenti/39551/0/covid-19rehberigenelbilgilerepidemiyolojivetanipdf.pdf
• Faes C., Abrams S., Van Beckhoven D., Meyfroidt G., Vlieghe E., Hens N., "Time between symptom onset, hospitalisation and recovery or death: statistical analysis of Belgian COVID-19 patients," International journal of environmental research and public health, 17( 20), 7560, 2020.
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2022, Feb 13) Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). [Online]. Available: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html
• World Health Organization (2022, Jan 31) Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
• Bai, J., Shi, F., Cao, J., Wen, H., Wang, F., Mubarik, S. et all."The Epidemiological Characteristics of Deaths with COVID-19 in The Early Stage in Wuhan, China," Global Health Research and Policy 5, 54, 2020.
• Wikipedia (2022, Feb 15) COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Turkey
• Barlas G., Öztürk H., Pehlivantürk G., Aydin S. "Turkey’s response to COVID-19 pandemic: strategy and key actions," (in eng), Turk J Med Sci, 51 (1), 3150-3156, 2021.
• BBC Türkçe (2022 March 1) Omicron, Türkiye’de de tespit edildi: Varyant ne kadar tehlikeli? [Online]. Available: https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-59594178
• World Health Organization (2022, March 1) Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants. [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2022, March 1) Omicron Variant: What You Need to Know." [Online]. Available: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/omicron-variant.html
• Panda B., Thakur H. P. "Decentralization and health system performance - a focused review of dimensions, difficulties, and derivatives in India," BMC Health Serv Res, 16 (6), 561, 2016.
• Abimbola S., Baatiema L., Bigdeli M. "The impacts of decentralization on health system equity, efficiency and resilience: a realist synthesis of the evidence," Health Policy Plan, 34( 8), 605-617, 2019.
• Askitas N., Tatsiramos K., Verheyden B. "Estimating worldwide effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and population mobility patterns using a multiple-event study," Sci Rep, 11 (1), 1972, 2021.
• Liu Y., Morgenstern C., Kelly J., Lowe R., Jit M. "The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories,", BMC Med, 19 (1), 40, 2021.
• Teslya A., Pham T. M., Godijk N. G., Kretzschmar M. E., Bootsma M. C. J., Rozhnova G., "Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government-imposed social distancing on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic: A modeling study,", PLoS Med, 17 (7), e1003166, 2020.
• Caristia, S., Ferranti, M., Skrami, E., Raffetti, E., Pierannunzio, D., Palladino, R. et all. "Effect of national and local lockdowns on the control of COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review," Epidemiol Prev, 44 (6) 60-68, 2020. S2.104.
• Hakim, A. J., Victory, K. R., Chevinsky, J. R., Hast, M. A., Weikum, D., Kazazian, L. et all. "Mitigation policies, community mobility, and COVID-19 case counts in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore," Public Health, 194, 238-244, 2021.
• DİSK (2022 July 02) “Tam kapanma” yok, on milyonlar çalışmaya devam ediyor! ." [Online]. Available: http://arastirma.disk.org.tr/?p=5712
• T.C Sağlık Bakanlığı (2022 July 2) İlk Koronavirüs Aşısı Sağlık Bakanı Fahrettin Koca’ya Yapıldı. [Online]. Available: https://www.saglik.gov.tr/TR,78148/ilk-koronavirus-asisi-saglik-bakani-fahrettin-kocaya-yapildi.html
• Ourworldindata (2022 July 2) Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations. [Online]. Available: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations