Finansal Başarısızlık Risk Tahmini: Madencilik ve Taş Ocakçılığı İşletmeleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Year 2024, Volume: 9 Issue: 25, 503 - 518, 31.10.2024

Murat Katı

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.1444773

Abstract

Ülke ekonomilerinde yaşanan gelişmeler, teknolojik gelişmeler, ekonomik krizler ve salgın hastalıklar finansal başarısızlık kavramını önemli hale getirmiştir. Mikro ve makro düzeyde yaşanan değişimler ve gelişmeler işletmelerin finansal yapılarını etkilemektedir. İşletmelerin sürdürülebilirliklerini sağlamak adına değişen koşullara ve ortaya çıkabilecek risklere karşı önlem almaları gerekmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmanın amacı, Borsa İstanbul’da (BİST) madencilik ve taş ocakçılığı sektöründe faaliyet gösteren işletmelerin finansal başarısızlık risklerinin tahmin edilmesidir. Çalışma kapsamında madencilik ve taş ocakçılığı sektöründe faaliyet gösteren işletmelerin 2017-2023 yıllarına ilişkin finansal tabloları Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu (KAP) internet sitesinden temin edilerek analize tabi tutulmuştur. Çalışmada yer alan işletmelerin finansal başarısızlık riskleri, risk tahmin yöntemlerinden Altman ZI Skor Modeli, Springate ve Fulmer Modelleri kullanılarak tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda işletmelerin finansal başarısızlık durumlarının modeller ve yıllar itibariyle farklılık gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonraki çalışmalarda farklı sektörlerin çalışma kapsamına alınması, çalışma döneminin genişletilmesi veya Beaver, Ohlson, Zmijeswki ve Canada gibi diğer finansal başarısızlık tahmin modellerinin kullanılması sunulacak öneriler arasındadır.

Keywords

Finansal Başarısızlık, Altman Z Skor, Springate Modeli, Fulmer Modeli.

Financial Failure Risk Estimation: An Application on Mining and Quarrying Businesses

Abstract

Developments in national economies, technological developments, economic crises and epidemics have made the concept of failure important. Changes and developments at the micro and macro level affect the financial structures of businesses. In order to ensure their sustainability, businesses need to take measures against changing conditions and risks that may arise. In this context, the aim of the study is to estimate the financial failure risks of businesses operating in the mining and quarrying sector in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). Within the scope of the study, the financial statements of the enterprises operating in the mining and quarrying sector for the years 2017-2023 were obtained from the Public Disclosure Platform (KAP) website and subjected to analysis. The financial failure risks of the businesses in the study were determined by using Altman ZI Score Model, Springate and Fulmer Models, which are risk estimation methods. As a result of the study, it was determined that the financial failure status of the enterprises differed in terms of models and years. In future studies, it is recommended to include different sectors in the scope of the study, to extend the study period or to use other financial failure prediction models such as Beaver, Ohlson, Zmijeswki and Canada.

Keywords

Financial Failure, Altman Z Score, Springate Model, Fulmer Model.

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