Gelişmiş Batı Ülkelerinde Suç Oranlarının Düşmesinde Güvenlik Yaklaşımının Etkisi

Year 2022, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 25 - 58, 16.06.2022

Zahir Kızmaz

Abstract

Bu makalede gelişmiş çok sayıda ülkede gözlemlenen suç oranlarının düşüşü üzerinde fırsat teorileri ve bu teorilerle ilişkili olan güvenlik tezinin etkisine odaklanılmıştır. Çalışmada ilkin suç oranlarının düşmesinde etkili olduğu varsayılan önemli bazı faktörler ele alınmıştır. Bu kapsamda gelişmiş ülkelerdeki suç düşüşleri ağırlıklı olarak uyuşturucu kullanımının azalması, kürtajın yasallaşması, polis görünürlüğünün artması, yeni polislik modellerinin geliştirilmesi, hapsetme oranlarının artması, silah politikalarındaki değişiklikler, nüfus yapısının değişmesi ve ekonomik iyileşmeler gibi çok sayıda faktör ile açıklanmaktadır. Bu faktörlerin veya bu faktörlere ilişkin yaklaşımların çoğunun suç düşüşlerini açıklamada kısmen başarılı olabileceği ve özellikle de ABD’deki suç düşüşlerini açıklamaya daha uygun olduğu tezi ileri sürülmüştür. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, Avrupa ülkelerindeki düşüşleri de kapsayan daha genel bir açıklama çerçevesi olarak güvenlik tezinin açıklama potansiyelinin önemine ve etkisine işaret edilecektir. Güvenlik hipotezi veya yaklaşımı, suç oranlarının düşmesinin nedenini, suç fırsatlarını ortadan kaldırmayı amaçlayan güvenlik önlemlerinin geliştirilmesi, iyileştirilmesi ve uygulanması ile açıklamaktadır. Çalışmada ayrıca güvenlik tezi kapsamında, proaktif polislik modellerinin suç oranlarının düşmesindeki etkisi de vurgulanmaktadır.

Keywords

Suç oranlarının düşmesi, güvenlik tezi, fırsat teorileri, gelişmiş ülkeler

The Effect of Security Approaches on the Decline of Crime Rates in Developed Western Countries

Abstract

This article focuses on the effect of opportunity theories and the security thesis associated with these theories on the decrease in crime rates observed in many developed countries. In the study, firstly, some important factors that are assumed to be effective in the decrease in crime rates are discussed. In this context, the decrease in crime in developed countries is mainly explained by many factors or approaches such as decreased drug use, legalization of abortion, increased police visibility, development of new policing models, increased incarceration rates, changes in gun policies, changes in population structure and economic improvements. It has been argued that many of these factors, or approaches to these factors, may be partially successful in explaining crime decreases and are more appropriate to explain crime decreases in the United States in particular. In this context, the importance and impact of the explanation potential of the security thesis as a more general explanation framework including the declines in European countries will be pointed out. The security hypothesis or approach explains the reason for the decrease in crime rates through the development and implementation of improved and enhanced security measures aimed at eliminating crime opportunities. Within the scope of the security thesis, the effect of proactive policing models on the drops of crime rates was also emphasized.

Keywords

Decline in crime rates, crime drop, security thesis, theories of opportunity, developed countries

References

• Aebi, M. F. ve Linde, A. (2010). Is there a crime drop in Western Europe? European Journal of Policy and Research, 16, 251-277.
• Aebi, M. F. ve Linde, A. (2014). The persistence of lifestyles: Rates and correlates of homicide in Western Europe from 1960 to 2010. European Journal of Criminology, 11(5), 552-577.
• Austin, C. (1988). The prevention of robbery at building society branches. Crime Prevention Unit Paper 14. London: Home Office.
• Ayres, I. ve Donohue, J. (2003). Shooting down the ‘more guns, less crime’ hypothesis. Stanford Law Review, 55(4), 1193-1312.
• Blumstein, A. (2006). The crime drop in America: an exploration of some recent crime trends. Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, 7(1), 17-35.
• Blumstein, A. ve Wallman, J. (2000). The crime drop in America. Cambridge University Press.
• Blumstein A. ve Rosenfeld R. (2008). Factors contributing to U.S. crime trends. Understanding Crime Trends: Workshop Report. National Research Council Committee on Understanding Crime Trends, Committee on Law and Justice, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 13–43.
• Braga, A. ve Weisburd, D. (2010). Policing problem places: Crime hot spots and effective prevention. Oxford University Press.
• Braga, A., Papachristos, A ve Hureau, D. (2014). The effects of hot spots policing on crime: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis, Justice Quarterly, 31(4), 633-663.
• Brown, R. (2015). Reviewing the effectiveness of electronic vehicle immobilisation: Evidence from four countries. Security Journal, 28, 329-351.
• Clarke, R. V., Field, S. ve McGrath, G. (1991). Target hardening of banks in Australia and displacement of robberies. Security Journal, 2, 84-90.
• Clarke, R. V. (1997). Introduction. R. Clarke (Ed.). Situational crime prevention: Successful case studies içinde (ss. 2-43). Harrow and Heston.
• Clarke, R. ve Cornish, D. B. (2001). Rational choice. R. Paternoster ve R. Bachman (Ed.). Explaining criminals and crime: Essays in contemporary theory içinde (ss. 23-42). Roxbury.
• Clarke, R. V. ve Eck, J. E. (2005). Crime analysis for problem solvers in 60 small steps. Washington, USA Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS).
• Cohen, L. E. ve Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44, 588-608.
• Donohue, J. ve Levitt, S. (2001). The impact of legalised abortion on crime. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(2), 279-420.
• Eck, J. E. ve Maguire, E. R. (2000). Have changes in policing reduced violent crime? A. Blumstein ve J. Wallman (Ed.). The crime drop in America içinde (ss. 207-265). New York: Cambridge University Press,
• Eck, J. (2002). Preventing crime at places. L. Sherman, D. Farrington, B. Welsh ve D. L. MacKenzie (Ed.). Evidence-based crime prevention içinde (ss. 241-294). Routledge.
• Eisner, M. (2008). Modernity strikes back? A historical perspective on the latest increase in interpersonal violence (1960-1990). International Journal of Conflict and Violence, 2, 288-316.
• Ekblom, P. (1988). Preventing post office robberies in London: Effects and side effects. Journal of Security Administration, 11, 36-43
• Ganpat, S. M., Garius, L., Tseloni, A. ve Tilley, N. (2020). Violence and the crime drop. European Journal of Criminology, 1-24
• Farrell, G. ve Pease, K. (1993). Once bitten, twice Bitten: Repeat victimisation and its implications for crime prevention. Crime Prevention Unit Paper 46. London: Home Office.
• Farrell, G., Tilley, N., Tseloni, A. ve Mailley, J. (2010). Explaining and sustaining the crime drop: Clarifying the role of opportunity-related theories. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 12(1), 24-41.
• Farrell, G. (2013). Five test for a theory of the crime drop. Crime Science, 2(5), 1-8.
• Farrell, G., Tilley, N. ve Tseloni, A. (2014). Why the crime drop? Crime and Justice, 43(1), 421-490.
• Farrell, G., Laycock, G. ve Tilley, N. (2015). Debuts and legacies: The crime drop and the role of adolescence-limited and persistent offending. Crime Science 4(1), 4-16.
• Farrell, G., Tseloni, A., Mailley, J. ve Tilley, N. (2011a). The crime drop and the security hypothesis. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 48(2), 147-175.
• Farrell, G., Tseloni, A. ve Tilley, N. (2011b). The effectiveness of vehicle security devices and their role in the crime drop. Criminology and Criminal Justice, 11(1), 21-35.
• Felson, R. (1997). Routine activities and involvement in violence as actor, witness, or target. Violence and Victims, 12(3), 209-221.
• Felson, M. (2012). The structure of angry violence. N. Tilley ve G. Farrell (Ed.). The reasoning criminologist: Essays in honour of Ronald V. Clarke içinde (ss. 205-211). Routledge Publishing,
• Fox, J. A. (2000). Demographics and US homicide. A. Blumstein ve J. Wallman (Ed.). The crime drop in America içinde (ss. 288-317). Cambridge University Press.
• Goldstein, H. (1979). Improving policing: A problem-oriented approach. Crime and Delinquency, 25(2), 34-58.Hindelang, M. J., Gottfredson, M. R. ve Garofalo, J. (1978). Victims of personal crime: An empirical foundation for a theory of personal victimization. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
• Johnson, B., Golub, A., ve Dunlap, E. (2000). The rise and decline of hard drugs, drug markets, and violence in inner-city New York. A. Blumstein, and J. Wallman (Ed.), The crime drop in America içinde (ss. 164–206). Cambridge University Press.
• Kargın, G. (2001). Bir polisiye suç önleme stratejisi: Problem odaklı polislik. M. A. Sözer ve D. R. Lee (Ed.). Suç önleme teori, pratik ve değerlendirme içinde (ss. 41-63). Adalet Yayınevi.
• Kılıç, O. ve Demir, O. Ö. (2001), Suç-yoğun polisliği. M. A. Sözer ve D. R. Lee (Ed.). Suç önleme teori, pratik ve değerlendirme içinde (ss. 15-41), Adalet Yayınevi.
• Kızmaz, Z. ve Bilgin, R. (2012). Hırsızlık: Suçlular, nedenler ve dinamikler. Polis Akademisi Yayınları.
• Kızmaz, Z. (2020). Suç önleme: Çağdaş yaklaşımlar. Nobel Yayıncılık.
• Knepper, P. (2012). An international crime decline: Lessons for social welfare crime policy? Social Policy &Administration, 46(4), 359-376.
• LaFree, G., Curtis, K. ve McDowall, D. (2015). How effective are your “better angels? Assessing country-level declines in homicide Since 1950. European Journal of Criminology, 12, 482-504.
• Langan, P. ve Farrington, D. (1998). Crime and justice in the United States and in England and Wales, 1981-96. Washington DC: US Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics.
• Levitt, S. D. (2004). Understanding why crime fell in the 1990s: Four factors that explain the decline and six that do not. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(1), 163-190.
• Lind, D. ve Lopez, G. (2015). 16 Theories for why crime plummeted in the US. https://www.vox.com/2015/2/13/8032231/crime-drop adresinden 15.01.2021 tarihinde erişilmiştir.
• Machin, S. ve Meghir, C. (2004). Crime and economic incentives. Journal of Human Resources, 39(4), 958-979.
• Marowitz, L. A (2000). Why Did the Crime Rate Decrease Through 1999? (And Why Might It Decrease or Increase in 2000 and Beyond)? Criminal Justice Statistics Center: California Department of Justice.
• Marvell, T. ve Moody, C. (1996). Specification problems, police levels, and crime rates. Criminology, 34(4), 609-646. Mishra, S. ve Lalumière, M. (2009). Is the crime drop of the 1990s in Canada and the USA associated with a general decline in risky and health-related behavior? Social Science & Medicine, 68(1), 39-48.
• Nilsson, A., Estrada, F. ve Bäckman, O. (2017). The unequal crime drop: Changes over time in the distribution of crime among individuals from different socioeconomic backgrounds. European Journal of Criminology, 14(5), 586-605.
• Pinker, S. (2019). Doğamızın iyilik melekleri-şiddet neden azaldı. İ. A. Demir (Çev.). Alfa Yayıncılık.
• Pinker, S. (2011). The Better angels of our nature: Why violence has declined. Viking.
• Poyner, B. (1988). Video cameras and bus vandalism. Security Administration, 11, 44-51.
• Poyner, B. (1991). Situational Prevention in Two Car Parks. Security Journal, l 2:96-101
• Roeder, O., Eisen, L. B. ve Bowling, J. (2015). What caused the crime decline. Brennan Center for Justice.
• Rosenfeld, R. (1996). Gun buy-backs: Crime control or community mobilization. M. R. Plotkin (Ed.). Under fire: Gun buy-backs, exchanges and amnesty programs içinde (ss. 1-28). Washington, DC: Police Executive Research Forum.
• Rosenfeld, R. (2004). The case of the unsolved crime decline. Scientific American, 290(2), 82-89.
• Rosenfeld, R. ve Messner, S. F. (2009). The crime drop in comparative perspective: The impact of the economy and imprisonment on Aamerican and European burglary rates. The British Journal of Sociology, 60(3), 445-471.
• Schneider, S. (2015). Crime prevention: Theory and practice. CRC Press.
• Spelman, W. (2000). The limited importance of prison expansion. A. Blumstein ve J. Wallman (Ed.). The crime drop in America içinde (ss. 97-129). Cambridge University Press.
• Tonry, M. (2014). Why crime rates are falling throughout the Western World. Crime and Justice, 43(1), 1-63.
• Tseloni A., Mailley, J., Farrell G. ve Tilley, N. (2010). Exploring the international decline in crime rates. European Journal of Criminology, 7(5), 375-394.
• Tseloni, A., Farrell, G., Thompson, R., Evans, E. ve Tilley, N. (2017). Domestic burglary drop and the security hypothesis. Crime Science, 6(3), 1-16.
• van Dijk, J. J. M. (2008). The world of crime. Sage.
• van Dijk, J. J. M., van Kesteren, J. N. ve Smit, P. (2008). Criminal victimisation in ınternational perspective: Key findings from the 2004-2005 ICVS and EU. ICS. The Hague: Boom Legal Publishers.
• van Dijk, J. J. M., Tseloni, A. ve Farrell, G. (2012). The ınternational crime drop: New directions in research. Palgrave Macmillan.
• Weisburd, D., Maher, L. ve Sherman, L. (1992). Contrasting crime general and crime specific theory: The case of hot spots of crime. Advances in criminological theory içinde (4. Cilt ss. 45-69). New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Press.
• Weisburd, D., Telep, C., Hinkle, J. ve Eck, J. (2008). The effects of problem-oriented policing on crime and disorder.Campbell Systematic Reviews, doi: 10.4073/csr.2008.14.
• Zimring, F. E. (2006). The great American crime decline. Oxford University Press.