Rusya Liderliğinde Bir Güç Merkezi Olarak Avrasya Ekonomi Birliği

Year 2019, Volume: 7 , 1 - 22, 19.07.2019

Eray Alım , Fuat Aksu

https://doi.org/10.14782/ipsus.594377

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Avrasya’da, eski Sovyet coğrafyasının kapsadığı alanda bölgesel entegrasyon politikalarının itici gücü

bölgenin lider ülkesi olan Rusya olmuştur. SSCB’nin dağılması sonrasında Rusya’nın öncülüğünde atılan

entegrasyon adımları bölgesel birlikteliğin sağlanması kadar Rusya’nın gücünü kurumsallaştırmasının

da bir vasıtasıdır. Nitekim, Rusya ve bölge ülkeleri arasındaki keskin güç asimetrisi, bölge ülkelerinin

Rusya’ya sunabileceği katkıları sınırlı kılmakta ve böylece hangi saiklerle Rusya’nın bölgesel örgütler

kurmak suretiyle entegrasyon tesis etmek isteyebileceği sorusunu ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Bu hususla

ilgili bakılması gereken nokta jeopolitik etkenler ve Rusya’nın uluslararası sistemin genelinde etkili bir

oyuncu olması için bölgesindeki konumunu konsolide etme ihtiyacıdır. Bu tespite güçlü zemin sunan

örnek bir hadise olarak 2015 senesinde Avrasya Ekonomi Birliği (AEB) faaliyete başlamıştır. Her ne kadar

bu projenin kuruluş gerekçesi ekonomik nedenler üzerine bina edilmişse de, bölge ülkelerinin sınırlı

ekonomik hacimleri, statik ekonomik yapıları ve bu hususlarla ilişkili olarak Rusya’nın ihracatının ezici

payını gelişmiş ekonomilerin oluşturması, Rusya açısından AEB projenin rasyonalitesini sorgulanır

kılmaktadır. Fakat ekonomik boyutun ötesine geçilerek odak noktası Rusya’nın jeopolitik tasavvuruna

ve uluslararası siyasi dengeleri okuma şekline sabitlendiğinde, AEB projesini anlamlandırma imkânı

doğmaktadır. Yakın plan bir okuma yapıldığında, AEB’nin hayata geçtiği konjonktür Rusya’nın çok

kutuplu bir dünya düzeninin etkili aktörlerinden biri olma hedefini daha güçlü şekilde vurguladığı

zaman dilimine denk düşmektedir. Bu bağlamda, Rusya’nın AEB’nin kuruluşuyla Batı ve Çin arasındaki

geniş orta alanı kontrol edecek bir blok oluşturma politikasının güçlü işaretleri göze çarpmaktadır. Her

ne kadar Rusya, yeni bir Avrasya rejimi ile siyasi entegrasyonu da içinde barındıran supranasyonal

bir örgütü mümkün kılmak istemişse de, komşularının Rusya’nın nüfuzu altına girmekten duydukları

kaygı bu hedefi kolay ulaşılabilir kılmamaktadır. Buna rağmen, 1990’lardaki durumuna kıyasla Rusya,

2000’lerin ilk on yılında enerji fiyatlarındaki yükselişin getirdiği ekonomik gelirle, kendisini daha hazır

hissettiği bir dünya konjonktüründe, güçlü bir entegrasyon projesi olarak AEB’yi hayata geçirebilmiştir

Keywords

Rusya, Avrasya Ekonomi Birliği, Bölgesel Entegrasyon, Çok Kutuplu Dünya Düzeni

Eurosian Economic Union as a Power Centre Under the Leadership of Russia

Abstract

Russia has been the driving force behind integration projects in the geographical area known as the ex-

Soviet space in Eurasia. Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, steps taken to promote integration

under Russian leadership have been aimed at achieving regional unity, but integration initiatives have

also served as a means for Russia to institutionalize its influence. The sharp asymmetry between Russia

and other countries in the region indicates that the potential of the post-Soviet republics to contribute

to Russia is limited and therefore the question arises as to what motivates Russia to achieve integration

with its neighbours through the creation regional organizations. In addressing this question, one needs

to dwell upon geopolitical factors and Russia’s need to consolidate its position in its region which is

necessary for it to become an influential actor internationally. A recent development that provides

basis to this assessment is the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) which came into existence in 2015.

Although economic factors are said to be behind the creation of this project, several factors render

the EEU a questionable enterprise from Russia’s point of view, such as limited economic potential of

regional actors, static economic models and the fact that developed (rather than regional) economies

take up an overwhelming share of Russia’s exports. But if one moves beyond economic dimension,

focuses on Russia’s geopolitical vision and looks at the way in which Russia conceives of international

political dynamics, then it becomes possible to make sense of the EEU project. If viewed closely, one

would notice that the EEU’s creation coincides with Russia’s rigorous attempts to present itself as one

of the influential players of a multipolar international order. In this respect, one could see strong signs

that the EEU project was launched as an initiative to help Russia control the vast space between the

West and China. Although, through a new Eurasian regime, Russia sought to create a supranational

project which was also intended to comprise political integration, it remains unlikely for the EEU to

extend beyond its current form due to the fear of Russia’s neighbours of falling under Russian influence.

Nevertheless, Russia, in a relatively strong position after having experienced economic growth during

the first decade of 2000s through the rise in energy prices, has managed to spearhead the creation of a

strong integration project known as the EEU.

Keywords

Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, regional integration, Multipolar World Order

References

• (2006, 7 June) “Russia Calls NATO Plans ‘Colossal’ Shift – Europe – International Herald Tribune”, New York Times. (2015) “Eurasia’s Economic Bloc at Risk from Geopolitics”, Strategic Comments, 21 (5): xi-xii. (2016, 1 December) “Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation”, http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_ policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248, [Erişim Tarihi: 21.102.107]. Abdullo, R. (2015, March 26) “Tajikistan and Eurasian Integration Project”, Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting. Akal, M., R. Şen (2005) “Avrupa Birliği Üyelerinde İhracat ve İthalatın Gelişimi”, içinde O. Kaymakcı (der.), Avrupa Birliği Üzerine Notlar, Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım, 119-152. Allison, R. (2013) Russia, the West, and Military Intervention, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Balakishi, S. (2016) “Eurasian Economic Union: Russia’s New Foreign Policy in the South Caucasus”, Maastricht School of Management, Working Paper No. 2016/1. Blank, S. (2013, August 21) “Russia Pressures Armenia to Join Customs Union”, https://www.cacianalyst. org/publications/analytical-articles/item/12793-russia-pressures-armenia-to-join-customs-union. html, [Erişim Tarihi: 26.07.2017]. Buckley, N., R. Olearchyk (2013, 11 November) “Eastern Europe: Which Way to Turn?”, Financial Times. Bukkvoll, T. (2004) “Private Interests, Public Policy: Ukraine and the Common Economic Space Agreement”, Problems of Post-Communism, 51 (5): 11-22. Bukkvoll, T. (2014, 19 March) “Russia May Gain Small and Lose Big”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/ article/russia-may-gain-small-and-lose-big/, [Erişim Tarihi: 13.12.2017]. Dragneva, R., K. Wolczuk (2015a) “European Union Emulation in the Design of Integration”, in D. Lane and V. Samokhvalov (eds.), The Eurasian Project and Europe Regional Discontinuities and Geopoliticsed, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 135-152. Dragneva, R., K. Wolczuk (2015b) Ukraine Between the EU and Russia: The Integration Challenge, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Dragneva, R., K. Wolczuk (2016) “Between Dependence and Integration: Ukraine’s Relations with Russia”, Europe-Asia Studies, 68 (4): 678-698. Dragneva, R., K. Wolczuk (2017, May) “The Eurasian Economic Union: Deals, Rules and the Exercise of Power”, Chatham House: The Royal Institute of International Affairs. Gvosdev, N. K., C. Marsh (2014) Russian Foreign Policy: Interests, Vectors, and Sectors, California: CQ Press. Inozemtsev, V. (2014) “Russia Turns East: Eurasian Integration, Regional Development, and the West as East”, in K. Liik (ed.), Russia’s ‘Pivot’ to Eurasia, London: European Council on Foreign Relations, 62-68. International Crisis Group (2016, 20 July) “The Eurasian Economic Union: Power, Politics and Trade”, Europe and Central Asia Report, No: 240. International Crisis Group (2017, 27 July) “Central Asia’s Silk Road Rivalries”, Europe and Central Asia Report, No: 245. Kaczmarski, M. (2017) “Two Ways of Influence-Building: The Eurasian Economic Union and the One Belt, One Road Initiative”, Europe-Asia Studies, 69 (7): 1027-1046. Karimov, I. (2015, 13 January) “Karimov: Uzbekistan Will Never Join Soviet-Style Alliance”, https://www. rferl.org/a/karimov-says-uzbekistan-never-joins-ussr-like alliance/26791545.html, [Erişim Tarihi: 09.08.2017]. Khabarov, S. (1995) “Commonwealth of Independent States: Treaty on Creation of Economic Union”, International Legal Materials, 34 (5): 1298-1310. Kirkham, K. (2016) “The Formation of the Eurasian Economic Union: How Successful is the Russian Regional Hegemony?”, Journal of Eurasian Studies, 7: 111-128. Kuchins, A. C., J. Mankoff, B. Oliver (2015a, June) “Central Asia in a Reconnecting Eurasia: Kyrgyzstan’s Evolving Foreign Economic and Security Interests”, Center for Strategic and International Studies. Kuchins, A. C., J. Mankoff, B. Oliver (2015b, June) “Central Asia in a Reconnecting Eurasia: Tajikistan’s Evolving Foreign Economic and Security Interests”, Center for Strategic and International Studies. Lavrov, S. (2017, 18 February) “Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s Address and Answers to Questions at the 53rd Munich Security Conference”, http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/ cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2648249, [Erişim Tarihi: 20.09.2017]. Libman, A. (2017) “Russian Power Politics and the Eurasian Economic Union: The Real and the Imagined”, Rising Powers Quarterly, 2 (1): 81-103. Libman, A., E. Vinokurov (2012) Holding-Together Regionalism: Twenty Years of Post-Soviet Integration, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Lo, B. (2002) Russian Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era: Reality, Illusion and Mythmaking, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Lo, B. (2015) Russia and the New World Disorder, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press. Mankoff, J. (2009) Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Great Power Politics, Plymouth: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. Nolte, D. (2010) “How to Compare Regional Powers: Analytical Concepts and Research Topics”, Review of International Studies, 36 (4): 881-901. Nygren, B. (2008) The Rebuilding of Greater Russia: Putin’s Foreign Policy towards the CIS Countries, New York: Routledge. Parshin, K. (2015, 15 January) “Eyeing Tajikistan’s Weak Spot, Russia Presses for Integration”, Eurasianet. Popescu, N. (2014, September) “Eurasian Union: The Real, the Imaginary and the Likely”, European Union Institute for Security Studies, Chaillot Paper No: 132. Putin, V. (2011, 3 October) “A New Integration Project for Eurasia: The Future in the Making”, https:// russiaeu.ru/en/news/article-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-new-integration-project-eurasiafuture- making-izvestia-3-, [Erişim Tarihi: 21.07.2017]. Putin, V. (2012, 7 May) “Vladimir Putin Inaugurated As President of Russia”, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/ president/news/15224, [Erişim Tarihi: 16.11.2017]. Putin, V. (2013, 19 September) “Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club”, http://en.kremlin.ru/ events/president/news/19243, [Erişim Tarihi: 12.08.2017]. Putin, V. (2014, 4 June) “Vladimir Putin’s Interview with Radio Europe 1 and TF1 TV Channel”, http:// en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/45832, [Erişim Tarihi: 29.06.2017]. Putz, C. (2016, 19 July) “Tajikistan: The Eurasian Economic Union’s Next Member?”, The Diplomat. Russell, M. (2017, April) “Eurasian Economic Union: The Rocky Road to Integration”, http://www.europarl. europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2017/599432/EPRS_BRI(2017)599432_EN.pdf, [Erişim Tarihi: 29.01.2018]. Sakwa, R. (2015) Eurasian Integration: A Project for the 21st Century?, in D. Lane and V. Samokhvalov (eds.), The Eurasian Project and Europe Regional Discontinuities and Geopoliticsed, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 53-71. Sakwa, R. (2008) Russian Politics and Society, Oxon: Routledge. Salimov, O. (2015, 7 January) “Tajikistan Paves the Way to Eurasian Union”, https://www.cacianalyst.org/ publications/field-reports/item/13113-tajikistan-paves-the-way-to-eurasian-union.html, [Erişim Tarihi: 08.08.2015]. Semeniy, O. (2007) “Ukraine’s European Policy as an Alternative Choice – Achievements, Mistakes and Prospects”, in S. Velychenko (ed.), Ukraine, the EU and Russia History, Culture and International Relations, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 123-137. Shumylo-Tapiola, Olga. (2012, October) “The Eurasian Customs Union: Friend or Foe of the EU”, The Carnegie Papers. Strzelecki, J. (2016, 27 January) “The Eurasian Economic Union: A Time of Crisis”, The Centre for Eastern Studies, No: 195. Tarr, D. G. (2016) “The Eurasian Economic Union of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and the Kyrgyz Republic: Can It Succeed Where Its Predecessor Failed?”, Eastern European Economics, 54 (1): 1-22. Torbakov, I. (2016) “Managing Imperial Peripheries: Russia and China in Central Asia”, in T. Fingar (ed.), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 240-272. Traynor, I. (2014, 1 September) “Kazakhstan is Latest Russian Neighbour to Feel Putin’s Chilly Nationalist Rhetoric”, The Guardian. “Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union”, https://docs.eaeunion.org/en-us/pages/displaydocument. aspx?s=bef9c798-3978-42f3-9ef2-d0fb3d53b75f&w=632c7868-4ee2-4b21-bc64- 1995328e6ef3&l=540294ae-c3c9-4511-9bf8-aaf5d6e0d169&entityid=3610, [Erişim Tarihi: 15.08.2017]. Trenin, D. (2011) Post-Imperium: A Eurasian Story, Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Trenin, D. (2014, June) “The Ukraine Crisis and the Resumption of Great-Power Rivalry”, Carnegie Moscow Center. Tsygankov, A. (2015) “Vladimir Putin’s Last Stand: The Sources of Russia’s Ukraine Policy”, Post-Soviet Affairs, 31 (4): 279-303. “Where Did Russian Federation Export in 2016?”, http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/ explore/?country=186&partner=undefined&product=undefined&productClass=HS&startYear =undefined&target=Partner&year=2016, [Erişim Tarihi: 18.11.2017]. Wilson, A. (2014) Ukraine Crisis: What It Means for the West, New Haven: Yale University Press. Wilson, J. L. (2016) “The Eurasian Economic Union and China’s Silk Road: Implications for the Russian– Chinese Relationship”, European Politics and Society, 17 (1): 113-132. World Bank (a) “Data Bank-World Development Indicators”, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports. aspx?Code=NY.GDP.MKTP.CD&id=1ff4a498&report_name=Popular-Indicators&populartype=se ries&ispopular=y#, [Erişim Tarihi: 17.11.2017]. World Bank (b) “Data Bank-World Development Indicators”, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports. aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.CD&country=RUS, [Erişim Tarihi: 17.11.2017]. World Bank (c) “GDP Ranking, 2016”, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.xls, [Erişim Tarihi: 05.10.2017].