Sınırlı Rasyonellik Modeli Çerçevesinde İran’ın Doğu’ya Bakış Politikası

Year 2022, , 1 - 26, 30.06.2022

Bilgehan Alagöz , Rahimullah Farzam

https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.1095964

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Doğu’ya Bakış politikası; İran’ın, Batı ile yüzleşmek için Doğu ülkeleriyle ilişkilerini güçlendirmesini hedefleyen bir dış politika vizyonudur. İlk kez Cumhurbaşkanı Mahmud Ahmedinejad Dönemi’nde İran’ın maruz kaldığı yaptırım ve izolasyonu kırmak amacıyla uygulanmaya başlanmıştır. Ancak Hasan Ruhani’nin 2013 yılında cumhurbaşkanlığı görevine gelmesiyle birlikte izlediği Batı ile yapıcı angajman politikası kapsamında Doğu’ya Bakış politikasının Batı’yı dengeleme yönü ön plana çıkmıştır. ABD Başkanı Donald Trump’ın Mayıs 2018’de Kapsamlı Ortak Eylem Planı’ndan (KOEP, Nükleer Anlaşma) çekilerek İran’a karşı sert yaptırımlar uygulamasına istinaden İran dış politikasının yönü bir kez daha Doğu’ya dönmüştür. İran’da daha çok muhafazakâr cephe tarafından desteklenen Doğu’ya Bakış politikasının, İbrahim Reisi’nin Cumhurbaşkanı olmasıyla birlikte yeniden İran dış politikasında öne çıktığı görülmüştür. Ancak Reisi hükûmetinin uyguladığı şekliyle Doğu’ya Bakış politikası, çeşitli kısıtlama ve çıkmazlarla karşı karşıyadır. Bu makalenin amacı, söz konusu politikayı dış politika analizi modelleri arasında yeri olan sınırlı rasyonellik modeli perspektifinden değerlendirmek ve bu politikanın esasen mutlak bir rasyonel tercih olmadığını, dış politika karar alıcılarının sınırlı alternatifler arasından en uygun olanını seçmesiyle oluşan zorunlu ve kısıtlı bir tercih olduğunu ortaya koymaktır.

Keywords

İran, Rusya, Çin, Doğu’ya Bakış, Sınırlı rasyonellik modeli

Iran’s Look to the East Policy in the Framework of Bounded Rationality Model

Abstract

The Look to the East policy is a foreign policy vision that aims to strengthen Iran's relations with Eastern countries in order to confront the West. The look to the East policy first entered the implementation phase during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Era, when Iran was exposed to extensive sanctions and isolated from the international system. However, when Hassan Rouhani took office in 2013, within the scope of his constructive engagement with the West policy, balancing the West aspect of the policy of look to the East policy came to the fore. Implementation of harsh sanctions against Iran following Donald Trump's announcement that the US withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal in May 2018, as well as the tension in relations with the West towards the end of Rouhani's presidency, the direction of Iran's foreign policy once again turned to the East. Following Raisi’s inauguration, it was seen that the policy of look to the East, which was supported by the conservative front in Iran, came to the fore once again. However, the look to the East policy, as implemented by the Raisi government, is faced with various constraints and impasses. This article aims to analyze the Look to the East policy through the Bounded Rationality Model, which has a place among the foreign policy analysis models. In this context, this article intends to reveal that this policy is not an absolute rational choice, but a compulsory and limited choice formed by the foreign policy decision makers choosing the most appropriate one among the limited alternatives.  

Keywords

Iran, Russia, China, Look to the East, Bounded rationality model

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