Appraising the Fiscal Sustainability in a Welfare State: Evidence from Turkey

Year 2019, Volume: 4 Issue: 2, 1 - 22, 18.10.2019

Cansın Kemal Can

Abstract

According to Tanzi and Schuknecht (1997), the welfare states are characterized by large
and ever-mounting fiscal deficits and public debt. Due to their shallow fiscal spaces, the
developing countries jeopardize their fiscal stability once they opt for running welfare state
policies. This study gauges the degree of fiscal vulnerability in Turkey from a welfare state
perspective and aims to appraise the posture of fiscal stability under welfare state policies
by means of fiscal fragility index and causality analyses. Overall, the results indicate that
despite exhibiting welfare state characteristics, Turkey’s fiscal stance does not reveal high
levels of fragility. The analysis of the fiscal fragility index indicates that the level of fiscal
vulnerability is time-varying and during the 90s surges in the social expenditures coexist
with rising fiscal vulnerability, whereas during 2000s, the despite considerable upward movements
in social spending, the index value does not imply a deterioration in fiscal fragility
apparently thanks to prudential policies during the period. Also, causality test results reveal
that there is unidirectional causality from required primary balance to real primary balance
indicating that the primary balance is used actively to restore fiscal stability. Nevertheless,
in recent years, the index value exhibits a rising trend signalling a worsening fiscal posture
which might entail an overhaul for the welfare state policies.

Keywords

Fiscal Sustainability, Welfare State, Toda-Yamamoto Test, Fiscal Fragility Index

Sosyal Devlette Mali Sürdürülebilirliğe Dair Bir Değerlendirme: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Tanzi ve Schuknecht’e (1997) göre refah devletlerinin karakteristik özellikleri arasında büyük ve sürekli artan mali açıklar ve kamu borcu yer alır ancak bu ülkeler sınırlı mali alanları nedeniyle refah devleti politikaları yürüttüklerinde bir yandan da mali istikrarlarını
tehlikeye atarlar ve mali kırılganlıkla karşılaşırlar. Bu çalışma, refah devleti perspektifinden
Türkiye’de mali kırılganlığın derecesini ölçmekte ve mali kırılganlık endeksi ve nedensellik
analizleri yoluyla refah devleti politikaları çerçevesinde mali istikrarın durumunu değerlendirmeyi
amaçlamaktadır. Genel olarak, sonuçlar refah devleti özellikleri sergilemesine
rağmen Türkiye’nin mali duruşunun yüksek düzeyde kırılganlık göstermediğini göstermektedir.
Mali kırılganlık endeksinin analizi, mali kırılganlık seviyesinin zamana göre değiştiğini
ve 90’lı yıllarda sosyal harcamalardaki artışların artan mali kırılganlık ile birlikte
var olduğunu, 2000’li yıllarda ise sosyal harcamalardaki önemli artış hareketlerine rağmen
endeks değerinin arttığını göstermektedir bu da söz konusu dönemde ihtiyatlı politikalar
sayesinde mali kırılganlıkta bir bozulma gerçekleşmediği anlamına gelmektedir. Ayrıca nedensellik
testi sonuçları, faiz dışı dengenin mali istikrarı sağlamak için aktif olarak kullanıldığını
ve borcu stabilize eden faiz dışı dengeden reel faiz dışı dengeye doğru tek yönlü bir
nedensellik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu da hükümetin gerektiğinde faiz dışı fazlayı
bir dengeleyici enstrüman olarak kullandığını göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, son yıllarda,
mali kırılganlık endeksi değeri, refah devleti politikalarının revizyonunu gerektirebilecek
kötüleşen bir mali durum sinyali veren bir yükseliş eğilimi sergilemektedir.

Keywords

Mali Sürdürülebilirlik, Refah Devleti, Yamamoto Testi, Mali Kırılganlık Endeksi

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