Avrupa Birliği’nin Enerji Güvenliği: Enerji İthalatı Bağımlılığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi

Year 2021, Volume: 71 Issue: 1, 133 - 162, 16.07.2021

Serap Elüstü

Abstract

Enerji piyasasının coğrafi koşullar nedeniyle oligopolistik bir yapıya sahip olması, bazı ülkeler için enerji ürünlerinin ithal edilmesini zorunlu kılmaktadır. Özellikle Avrupa Birliği, politik açıdan riskleri olan Rusya ve MENA (Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika) bölgesi ile bağımlılığa ulaşan önemli enerji ilişkilerine sahiptir. Enerji güvenliğini aksatan bu durum, AB için ekonomik açıdan risk oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmada AB’ye üye ve aday ülkelerin 2014-2018 dönemi petrol ve petrol ürünleri, doğal gaz, katı yakıt ithalatı ve enerji ithalatı bağımlılığının ekonomik büyüme ile ilişkisi panel veri analizi ile araştırılmaktadır. Modele yönelik temel varsayım testlerinin sonucunda Driscoll-Kraay tahmin modelinin kullanılması uygun bulunmuştur. Bulgular, AB ülkelerinin petrol ve petrol ürünleri ithalatının ekonomik büyümeleri üzerindeki etkisinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif; enerji ithalatı bağımlılığının ise ekonomik büyümeleri üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif yönlü olduğu şeklindedir. Doğal gaz ve katı yakıt ithalatının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi ise istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur. Petrol ve petrol ürünleri ithalatının ekonomik büyüme ile aynı yönde hareket etmesi, Avrupa Birliği’nde GSYİH’nin büyük kısmının hizmetler sektörüne bağlı olması, hizmetler sektörünün en büyük parçasını ise petrol ve petrol ürünlerinin yoğun olarak kullanıldığı ulaştırma sektörünün oluşturması ile açıklanabilir. Enerji ithalatı bağımlılığı ise beklendiği üzere ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Çalışma sonucuna göre AB’de yenilenebilir enerji kullanımı, enerji verimliliğinin artırılması gibi enerji ithalatı bağımlılığını azaltıcı politikaların reel GSYİH’yi artırıcı etki yaratması beklenmektedir. Enerjinin ithal edildiği kaynakların çeşitlendirilmesinin de, ihracatçıdan kaynaklanan tedarik risklerini aza indirmesi ve böylece enerji güvenliğini olumlu etkilemesi öngörülmektedir.

Keywords

Avrupa Birliği, Enerji ithalatı bağımlılığı, Enerjigüvenliği, Ekonomik büyüme, Panel veri analizi

Energy Security of the European Union: The Relationship between Energy Import Dependency and Economic Growth

Abstract

Energy markets have an oligopolistic structure based on global geographic conditions, which necessitates the import of energy products. Having a robust energy dependency on the Russian Federation and the Middle East and North African (MENA) region renders the European Union (EU) vulnerable in terms of both energy security and trade. This study analyzes the relationship between economic growth and energy import dependency, coupled with the import of oil and petroleum products, natural gas, and solid fuels in EU member and candidate countries between 2014 and 2018 through panel data analysis using the Driscoll-Kraay estimator. Key findings reveal that the effect of natural gas and solid fuel imports on economic growth is statistically insignificant, whereas the effect of oil and petroleum product imports on economic growth is statistically significant and positive and the effect of energy import dependency on economic growth is statistically significant and negative. Oil and petroleum products are mostly used in transportation, and services have the highest share in the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP); thus, the use of oil and petroleum products in the EU supports economic growth. The use of oil and petroleum products depends on imports, as the EU does not have sufficient internal sources. Increased energy efficiency and use of renewable energies may decrease energy import dependence and reduce the use of non-renewable energy products procured from external suppliers. If importing is a mandate, then diversifying exporters could minimize the risk of arising shortages from suppliers.

Keywords

European Union, Energy import dependency, Energy security, Economic growth, Panel data analysis

References

• Arora , V. & Shi, S. (2016). Energy consumption and economic growth in the United States, Applied Economics, 48(39), 3763-3773. google scholar
• Asghar, Z. (2008). Energy-GDP Relationshıp: A Causal Analysis For The Five Countries Of South Asia, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 8(1), 167-180. google scholar
• Aydın, F. (2010). Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 0(35), 317-340. google scholar
• Ayres, R. E., Turton, H. & Casten, T. (2007). Energy efficiency, sustainability and economic growth, Energy, 32(5), 634-648. google scholar
• Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (Third edition). West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd. google scholar
• Baltagi, B. H. & Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances, Econometric Theory, 15(6), 814-882. google scholar
• Barsky, R. B. & Kilian, L. (2002). Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative, In B. S. Bernanke & K. Rogoff, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001 (pp.137-198), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. google scholar
• Bartoletto, S. (2012). Patterns of Energy Transitions The Long-Term Role of Energy in the Economic Growth of Europe, In N.Möllers & K. Zachmann , Past and Present Energy Societies: How Energy Connects Politics, Technologies and Cultures, (pp. 305-330), Bielefeld: Transcript Verlag. google scholar
• Berndtson, E. (1991). Finlandization: Paradoxes of External and Internal Dynamics, Government and Opposition, 26(1), 21-33. google scholar
• Beşer, N.Ö. & Öztürk S. (2020). Petrol Fiyatlarinda Değişkenlik Ve İktisadi Büyüme: Petrol İthal Eden Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Analiz, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 12(1), 68-84. google scholar
• Bhargava, A., Franzni L. & Narendranathan W. (1982). Serial Correlation and Fixed Effect Models, The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), 533-549. google scholar
• Bozkurt, C. & Akan Y. (2014). Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions and Energy Consumption: The Turkish Case, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(3), 484-494. google scholar
• Campbell, C.J. (2005). Oil Crisis, Essex: Multi Science Publishing Company Ltd. google scholar
• Canton, J., Tomasi M., Arnoldus P., Pienkowski J., Darnaut N., Maincent E., Rezessy A., Spooner M. & Sripathy A. (2013). Member States’ Energy Dependence: An Indicator-Based Assessment, European Economy Occasional Papers, 145. google scholar
• Cherp, A., Adenikinju A., Goldthau A., Hernandez F., Hughes L., Jewell J., Olshanskaya M., Jansen J., Soares R. & Vakulenko S. (2012). Energy and Security, In T. B. Johansson, N. Nakicenovic & A. Patwardan, (Eds.), Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future, (pp. 325-383), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
• Chevalier, JM. (2006). Security of energy supply for the European Union, European Review of Energy Markets, 1(3), 1-20. google scholar
• Cirovic, M., Makajic-Nikolic D., Petrovic N., Vujosevic M. & Kuzmanovic M. (2015). European Union Oil Import Dependency Risk Analysis, Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 24(1), 75-81. google scholar
• Driscoll, J.C. & Kraay A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549-560. google scholar
• Esen, Ö. & Bayrak M. (2017). Does more energy consumption support economic growth in net energy-importing countries?, Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 22(42), 75-98. google scholar
• Eurostat. (2021). Database. (2020, 25 Ocak). Erişim Adresi https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat google scholar
• Georgantopoulos, A. G. & Tsamis, A. D. (2011). The Relationship between Energy Consumption and GDP: A Causality Analysis on Balkan Countries, European Journal of Scientific Research, 61(3), 372-380. google scholar
• Ghosh, S. (2009). Import demand of crude oil and economic growth: Evidence from India, Energy Policy, 37(2), 699-702. google scholar
• Greene, W. (2000). Econometrics Analysis, New Jersey:Prentice-Hall. google scholar
• Gujarati, D.N. & Porter, D.C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (Fifth Edition), New York : McGraw Hill Inc. google scholar
• Guo, W. (2018). An Analysis of energy consumption and economic growth of Cobb-Douglas production function based on ECM, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 113. google scholar
• Hamilton, J.D. (2003). What is an oil shock?, Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363-398. google scholar
• Harbo, F. (2008). The European Gas and Oil Market: The Role of Norway, Note de l’Ifri. google scholar
• Hausman, J.A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics, Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271. google scholar
• Hill, F. (2005). Beyond Co-Dependency: European Reliance on Russian Energy, The Brookings Institution US-Europe Analysis Series. (2020, 15 Ocak). Erişim Adresi https://www.brookings. edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/hill20050727.pdf google scholar
• International Energy Agency (2021). Data and Statistics. (2021, 25 Ocak). Erişim Adresi https://www. iea.org/data-and-statistics?country=WORLD&fuel=Energy%20 supply&indicator= TPESbySource google scholar
• Isaawi, C. (1978). The 1973 Oil Crisis and After, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 1(2), 3-26. google scholar
• Jahangir, SMR. & Dural Yüce, B. (2018). Crude oil, natural gas, and economic growth: impact and causality analysis in Caspian Sea region, International Journal of Management and Economics, 54 (3), 169-184. google scholar
• Jochem, E. (2000). Energy End-Use Efficiency, In Jose Goldemberg et al. (Eds.), World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability (pp.173-217), New York: UNDP. google scholar
• Judge, G. G., Hill, R. C., Griffiths, W. E., Lutkepohl, H. & Lee, T. C. (1985). Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics (2d ed.), New York: John Wiley & Sons. google scholar
• Kasperowicz, R. & Streimikiene, D. (2016). Economic growth and energy consumption: comparative analysis of V4 and the “old” EU countries, Journal of International Studies, 9(2), 181-194. google scholar
• Khatib, H. (2000). Energy Security, In Jose Goldemberg et al. (Eds.), World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability (pp.111-131), New York: UNDP. google scholar
• Korteweg, R. (2018). Energy as a tool of foreign policy of authoritarian states, in particular Russia, Belgium: European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs. https://doi.org/10.2861/951739 google scholar
• Laqueur, W. (1977). Europe: The Specter of Finlandization, Commentary, 64 (6), 37-41. google scholar
• Maltby, T. (2013). European Union energy policy integration: A case of European Commission policy entrepreneurship and increasing supranationalism, Energy Policy, 55, 435-444. google scholar
• Marques, A. C., Fuinhas, J. A. & Tomas, C. (2019). Energy efficiency and sustainable growth in industrial sectors in European Union countries: A nonlinear ARDL approach, Journal of Cleaner Production, 239 (118045). google scholar
• Martins, F., Felgueiras, C., Smitkova, M. & Caetano, N. (2019). Analysis of Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption and Environmental Impacts in European Countries, Energies, 12(6), https://doi. org/10.3390/en12060964 . google scholar
• Matei, I. (2017). Is there a Link between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Investigation for the OECD Countries, Revue deconomie politique, 127(6), 985-1012. google scholar
• Mucuk, M. & Uysal, D. (2009). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme, Maliye Dergisi, 157, 105-115. google scholar
• Örgün, B. O. & Pala, A. (2017). Enerji Tüketimi, Dışa Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 28 Avrupa Birliği Ülkesi için Panel Granger Nedensellik Analizi, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 54(623), 9-20. google scholar
• Özata, E. (2010). Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkilerin Ekonometrik İncelemesi, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 26. google scholar
• Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 0435. google scholar
• Pirlogea, C. & Cicea, C. (2012). Econometric perspective of the energy consumption and economic growth relation in European Union, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(8), 5718-5726. google scholar
• Streimikiene, D. & Kasperowicz. (2016) R. Review of Economic Growth and Energy Consumption: A Panel Cointegration Analysis for EU Countries, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 59, 1545-1549. google scholar
• United Nations. (2021). UN Comtrade Database. (2021, 20 Ocak). Erişim Adresi https://comtrade. un.org/data. google scholar
• Vlahinic-Dizdarevic, N. & Zikovic, S. (2010). The role of energy in economic growth: the case of Croatia, Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci, 28(1), 35-60. google scholar
• Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2016). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı, İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık. google scholar
• Yergin, D. (2006). Ensuring Energy Security, Foreign Affairs, 85(2), 69-82. google scholar
• Yılmaz, S. & Kalkan, D. K. (2017). Enerji Güvenliği Kavramı: 1973 Petrol Krizi Işığında Bir Tartışma”, Uluslararası Kriz ve Siyaset Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(3), 169-199. google scholar