External Debt Cycles of the Turkish Economy: Is it Possible to Escape the Crisis?

Year 2022, Volume: 72 Issue: 1, 175 - 209, 30.06.2022

Parla Onuk

https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1096657

Abstract

The prevailing view on the debt crises experienced by peripheral countries is that their economies are primarily exposed to shocks arising from existing internal dynamics and defaults follow a unique process. However, parallel to the development of financial capital, most debt crises in the peripheral countries have a systemic structure shaped by the dynamics of the core countries. The aim of this study is to investigate the structure in question through debt cycles and to shed light on the political economy dynamics of these cycles. Hence, foreign borrowing in Turkiye is examined from a historical perspective. In the present analysis, interest rates in core countries are identified as the main determinant of boom periods and consequent debt crises. The presence of a hegemonic power in the world economy is a major political dynamic behind the debt cycles. At the same time, the determinants of the debt crisis were empirically tested by considering 21 developing countries between 1970 and 2017. Interest rates, high inflation, GDP growth, the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP, and the ratio of short-term debt to reserves are determined to be the main dynamics. In this context, we discuss contrasting views on the sustainability of external debt and whether it is possible for a heavily indebted economy like Turkiye to escape recurring debt crises.

Keywords

External Debt Cycles, Hegemonic Power, Debt Crisis

Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dış Borç Döngüleri: Krizden Kaçış Mümkün Mü?

Abstract

Çevre ülkelerin borç krizleri üzerine hâkim görüş, bu ekonomilerin ağırlıklı olarak iç dinamiklerinden kaynaklı şoklara maruz kaldığı ve temerrütlerin kendine özgü bir yapıya sahip olduğu şeklindedir. Ne var ki, finans sermayesinin gelişimine paralel olarak çevre ülkelerdeki borç krizlerinin çoğu; merkez ülkelerdeki dinamikler tarafından şekillenen sistematik bir yapıya sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, söz konusu yapıyı borç dalgaları üzerinden araştırmak ve bu dalgaların ekonomi politik dinamiklerine ışık tutmaktır. Bunun için Türkiye’deki borçlanma süreçleri tarihsel bir perspektiften masaya yatırılmıştır. Bu analizde merkez ülkelerdeki faiz oranları, Türkiye’deki borç krizlerinin ana belirleyeni olarak tespit edilmiştir. Dünya sahnesinde hegemonik bir gücün varlığı ise borç dalgalarının seyrini belirleyen temel politik etken olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Aynı zamanda borç krizinin belirleyenlerinin araştırıldığı ampirik analizde; faiz oranları, yüksek enflasyon, GSYH büyümesi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların GSYH’ye oranı ve kısa vadeli borçların rezervlere oranı temel dinamikler olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, dış borcun sürdürülebilirliği ve Türkiye gibi ağır borçlu bir ekonominin tekrarlayan borç krizlerinden kaçınmasının mümkün olup olmadığı konusunda değişen görüşler tartışılmaktadır.

Keywords

Dış Borç Dalgaları, Hegemonik Güç, Borç Krizi

References

• Amin, S. (1991). Eşitsiz Gelişme: Çevre Kapitalizminin Toplumsal Biçimleri Üzerine Deneme, (A. Kotil, Çev.). İstanbul: Arba Yayınları. google scholar
• Annual Report of the Council of the Corporation of Foreign Bondholders. (1896). For the Year 1895, London: Councilhouse. google scholar
• Balkan, N. (1994). Kapitalizm ve borç krizi. Ankara: Bağlam Yayınları. google scholar
• Bayoumi, T., & Bordo, M. D. (1998). Getting pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 gold resumptions. Oxford Economic Papers, 50(1), 122-149. google scholar
• Beenstock, M. (1984). The World Economy in Transition. London, Allen and Unwin. google scholar
• Birdal, M. (1999). Uluslararası Borç Krizi ve Çevre Ülkelerinde Yapısal Dönüşüm (Yüksek Lisans Tezi). İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul. google scholar
• Birdal, M. (2010). The Political Economy of Ottoman Public Debt: Insolvency and European Financial Control in the Late Nineteenth Century. Londra ve New York, IB Tauris Publishers. google scholar
• Bukharin, N. (1987). Imperialism and World Economy, Londra, Merlin Press. google scholar
• Burns, A., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. New York, National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
• Celasun, O. (1998). The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey. Policy, Research Working Paper WPS 1913, Washington, DC, The World Bank. google scholar
• Chadha, J. S., Janssen, N., & Nolan, C. (2000). An Examination of UK Business Cycle Fluctuations, 1871-1997. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Supplementary Paper. google scholar
• Eaton, J., & Gersovitz, M. (1981). Debt with potential repudiation: Theoretical and empirical analysis. The Review of Economic Studies, 48(2), 289-309. google scholar
• Frank, A. G. (1984). Can the debt bomb be defused?, World Policy Journal, 1(4), 723-743. google scholar
• Gordon, D. (1989). The Global Economy: New Edifice or Crumbling Foundation?, New Left Review, 168, 24-65. google scholar
• Hilferding, R. (1981). Finance Capital: A Study of the Latest Phase of Capitalist Development. Londra, Boston ve Henley, Routledge & Kegan Paul. google scholar
• Hobson, J. A. (1961). Imperialism: A study. Londra, George Allen & Unwin. google scholar
• Homer, S., & Sylla, R. (2005). A History of Interest Rates. 4.bs., New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons. google scholar
• IMF (2000, 09) The World Economic Outlook Database, (Çevrimiçi), https://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/weo/2000/02/data/#top. google scholar
• Imlah, A. H. (1958). Economic Elements in the Pax Britannica: Studies in British Foreign Trade in the Nineteenth Century. Cambridge, Harvard University Press. google scholar
• İnce, M. (2001). Devlet Borçları ve Türkiye. Ankara, Gazi Kitabevi. google scholar
• Kowalewski, D. (1989). Global Debt Crises in Structural-Cyclical Perspective: 1791-1984. In W. P. Avery & D. P. Rapkin (Eds.), Markets, Politics, and Change in the Global Political Economy (pp. 5784). International Political Economy Yearbook, Colorado, Lynne Rienner Publishers. google scholar
• Lardaro, L. (1993). Applied Econometrics. New York, Harper Collins College Publishers. google scholar
• Lenin, V. I. (1950). Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism, Moskova, Foreign Languages Publishing House. google scholar
• Lipson, C. (1991). International Debt and National Security: Comparing Victorian Britain and Postwar America. In B. Eichengreen & P. H. Lindert (Eds.), The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective (pp. 189-226). London, The MIT Press. google scholar
• Luxemburg, R. (2003). The Accumulation of Capital. Londra ve New York, Routledge. google scholar
• Marichal, C. (1989). A Century of Debt Crises in Latin America: From Indipendence to the Great Depression 1820-1930. New Jersey, Princeton University Press. google scholar
• Marx, K. (1997). Kapital Cilt: III Ekonomi Politiğin Eleştirisi. Ankara, Sol Yayınları. google scholar
• Marx, K. (2011). Kapital Cilt: I: Ekonomi Politiğin Eleştirisi. Yordam Kitap, İstanbul. google scholar
• Mbaye, S., M., Moreno-Badia, M., & Chae, K. (2018). Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources. IMF Working Paper 18/111, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. google scholar
• Mensch, G. (1978). Stalemate in Technology. Cambridge, Massachusetts, Ballinger Publishing Co. google scholar
• NBER (2019, 14. 09). US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions, (Çevrimiçi), https://www.nber. org/cycles/cyclesmain.html. google scholar
• NIESR (2019, 14. 09). The UK Business Cycle-Dating and Implications,” (Çevrimiçi), https://www. niesr.ac.uk/uk-business-cycle-%E2%80%93-dating-and-implications. google scholar
• OECD (2018, 24. 11). Total Official and Private Flows (indicator), (Çevrimiçi) https://data.oecd.org/ drf/total-official-and-private-flows.htm. google scholar
• Onuk, P. (2019). Tarihsel Perspektiften Dünya Ekonomisinde Borçlanma Dalgaları ve Ekonomi Politik Dinamikleri. (Doktora Tezi). İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul. google scholar
• Özatay, F. (1995). 1994 Krizinden Alınacak Dersler: Kamu İç Borç Yönetiminde Yapılan Yanlışlıklar ve Güven Bunalımı. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 10(109), s. 17-33. google scholar
• Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. New Jersey, Princeton University Press. google scholar
• Roos, J. E. (2019). Why Not Default?: The Political Economy of Sovereign Debt. New Jersey, Princeton University Press. google scholar
• Suter, C., & Pfister, U. (1989). Global Debt Cycles and the Role of Political Regimes. In W. P. Avery & D. P. Rapkin (Eds.), Markets, Politics, and Change in the Global Political Economy (pp. 17-55). International Political Economy Yearbook, Colorado, Lynne Rienner Publishers. google scholar
• Suter, C. (1992). Debt Cycles in the World Economy: Foreign Loans, Financial Crises, and Debt Settlements, 1820-1990. San Francisco, Westview Press. google scholar
• The World Bank (1979). World Debt Tables: External Debt of Developing Countries 1970-79, Washington, DC, The World Bank. google scholar
• The World Bank: (1990). World Debt Tables: External Debt of Developing Countries 1989-90, Washington, DC, The World Bank, (Çevrimiçi), http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/810821468762578665/World-debt-tables-1989-90-external-debt-of-developing-countries-second-supplement. google scholar
• Tunçer, A. C. (2015). Sovereign Debt and International Financial Control: The Middle East and the Balkans, 1870-1914. Hampshire, Palgrave Macmillan. google scholar
• Türel, O. (2010). Türkiye’de 1994, 2001 ve 2008-9 Ekonomik Krizlerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 21(75), s. 22-75. google scholar
• Wallerstein, I. (1999). The End of the World As We Know It, Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press. google scholar
• Wallerstein, I. (2015b). Modern Dünya Sistemi: Avrupa Dünya Ekonomisinin Pekiştirilmesi ve Merkantalizm, 1600-1750, Çev. Latif Boyacı, 7. bs., İstanbul, Yarın Yayınları. google scholar
• Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2013). İleri Panel Veri Analizi: Stata Uygulamalı, 2. bs., İstanbul, Beta Yayıncılık. google scholar