Türkiye’s Export Analysis with Specific Reference to OECD Countries: 1982Q1 and 2021Q1

Year 2023, Volume: 12 Issue: 2, 1069 - 1094, 30.06.2023

Zelha Altınkaya , Kaveh Ahmadi Adli , Uğur Şener

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1247321

Abstract

International economics is a field that primarily examines the liberalization of trade and its impact on a country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The trade policies in the World economy, specifically Türkiye as a developing economy, have experienced different cycles since the 1980s, and Türkiye has been following liberal trade policies in an attempt to overcome instabilities in its economy since 24 January 1980. In particular, the long-term, including, the 1994, 2001, 2018 currency crises in Türkiye, the 1997 Asia, the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, and the 2020-2022 Covid 19 global recession, further increases significance of the analysis. This article specifically explores the effects of neo-liberal trade policies on Türkiye and its primary export market, the OECD countries. In particular, the impact of changes in the OECD Countries’ GDP on Turkish exports is analyzed in relation to the Terms of Trade (TOT) and foreign exchange (FX) volatility of the Turkish Lira through Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results reveal that Türkiye’s exports follow a statistically significant correlation with OECD’s GDP and FX volatility but not with the TOT for the period between 1982Q1 to 2021Q1. However, the lagged variables evaluated by the ADRL method indicate that five periods of lagging Turkish exports have a statistically significant relationship with two periods of lagging GDP of OECD, and one period of lagging FX, as well as with one period of lagging TOT. This article also offers valuable insights into the impact of exceptional events like COVID-19 pandemic on national economies, thus findings presented in this paper can help governments and policy makers predict potential implications of other extraordinary circumstances or global disasters and make informed decisions to mitigate their impact on the national economy. This is a long term analysis of neoliberal FX policies applied in Türkiye.

Keywords

Türkiye, OECD; Export, Foreign Exchange, Terms of Trade, ARDL, Neoliberalism

OECD Ülkeleri Örneğinde Türkiye’nin İhracat Analizi: 1982Q1 ve 2021Q1

Abstract

Uluslararası ekonomi, öncelikle, dış ticaretin serbestleştirilmesine, ve bu serbestleşmenin bir ülkenin gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH) üzerindeki etkilerine odaklanır. Özellikle, Türkiye, dünya ekonomisindeki pek çok gelişmekte olan ülke gibi, ekonomisinde yaşanan istikrarsızlıkların etkisiyle, 24 Ocak 1980 tarihinden itibaren, neoliberal dış ticaret politikaları izlemeye başlamıştır. Bu nedenle, neo-liberal ticaret politikalarının Türkiye ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmek çok daha fazla önem kazanmıştır. Özellikle, Türkiye’de 1994, 2001, 2018 döviz krizleri, 1997 Asya krizi, 2007-2009 küresel finansal krizi ile 2020-2022 Covid 19 küresel durgunluk dönemleri, bu önemi daha da artırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, ihracatında en büyük paya sahip olan OECD ülkelerinin GSYH’ lerindeki değişikliklerin, Türkiye’nin dış ticaretini etkilediği varsayılmaktadır. Bu çalışma, OECD ülkelerinin GSYH^deki değişimlerin, dış ticaret hadleri (TOT) ve döviz (döviz) oynaklığının, Türkiye’nin ihracat talep fonksiyonunu oluşturan önemli değişkenler olduğunu iddia etmektedir. Bu değişkenlerin, Türkiye ihracat modeli üzerindeki etkisi otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) yöntemi ile analiz edilmektedir. Araştırma, 1982Ç1-2021Ç1 arasındaki döneme ait istatistiklere dayanmaktadır. Sonuçlar, Türkiye'nin ihracatının OECD'nin GSYH ve Türk Lirası-ABD doları kurunun değişimi ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir korelasyona sahip olduğunu, ancak ticaret hadleri ile ilişkilendirmediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak, gecikmeli değişkenler ADRL yöntemi ile değerlendirildiğinde, beş dönem gecikmeli Türkiye ihracatının iki dönem gecikmeli OECD GSYH, bir dönem gecikmeli döviz kuru değişimleri ve bir dönem gecikmeli ticaret hadleri ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişkisi vardır. Bu da, ihracat pazarındaki OECD ülkelerinin GSYH’ndeki değişimlerin, Türkiye’nin ihracatını doğrudan etkilendiğini ortaya koyduğu gibi, COVID-19 salgını gibi ekonomik durgunluğa neden olan durumlarda, bu ülke ekonomilerdeki değişimlerin Türkiye ihracatı üzerinde ne kadar etkili olacağı konusunda öngörüde bulunmasını sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

Türkiye, OECD; İhracat, Döviz Kuru, Ticaret Hadleri, ARDL, Neoliberalizm

References

• Acaravcı, A.&İ. Öztürk (2002). Döviz Kurundaki Değişkenliğin Türkiye İhracatı Üzerine Etkisi: Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Review of Social, Economic and Business Studies.2, 197-206.
• Akal, M. (2010). Estimating Trade Elasticities of Turkey with OECD Countries: A Panel Approach.European Journal of Social Sciences, 15(3) 371
• Akbulut,B. S.(2014). Dış Ticaret Dengesi-Dış Ticaret Haddi İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (2002-2012) Yayınlanmamış Doktora tezi.K.T.Ü. S B. E., Trabzon.
• Akbulut,S. & H.Terzi (2016). The Effect of Terms of Foreign Trade on The Balance of Foreign Trade: The Validity of “S-Curve Approach'' for the Industries in Turkey. D.E Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi 31(2)
• Akcay, U. & Gungen, A. R. (2019). The making of Turkey's 2018-2019 economic crisis. Berlin Institute for IPE. Berlin S.E.L./W. P..120./2019
• Akkay, R.C.(2012).Reel Kur Değişimlerinin Dış Ticaret Dengesine Olan Etkisini Değerlendirmede Güncel Bir Yaklaşım: S Eğrisi Hipotezi.İ. Ü.İ. F. M., 62(19), 173 -190
• Arslan, İ. & S. Van Winnergen(1993). Export Incentives, Exchange Rate Policy and Export Growth in Turkey. The Review of Economics and Statistics,75,(1),128-133. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2109635
• Backus, D.K., Kehoe,P. J. and F. E. Kydland(1992)Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade:the J-curve revisited.D.P.Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65,FED Bank of Minneapolis
• Bailey,M.J.,Tavlas,G.S. & M. Ulan (1986). Exchange-Rate Variability and Trade Performance: Evidence for the Big Seven Industrial Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. Bd., 3, 466-477
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M.& Dan Xi (2015). A Note on the S-Curve Dynamics of Commodity Trade Between Brazil and The United States. Latin American Journal of Economics, 52, (1) 79-94.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M & Y. Wang (2006) The J Curve: China Versus Her Trading Partners. Bulletin of Economic Research, 58 (4), 323-343.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M.& O. Kara (2003) Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and E.R.. International Review of Applied Economics. 17, 293-308.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & F., Niroomand (1998) Long-Run Price Elasticities and the Marshall Lerner condition revisited . Economics Letters.61(1) 101-109.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M.(1991). Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade Flows of Developing Countries. The J. of Developing Areas, 25, (4)497-508. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4192021
• Balassa ,В. (1978). Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence, J. of Development Economics. 5(2) 181 -189.https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-develop ment -economics/vol/5/issue/2
• Balwin, R.(2012) Global Supply Chains: Why They Emerged, Why They Matter, and Where They are Going. CEPR D.P. DP9103
• Baron,D.(1976).Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the Pricing of Exports, Economic Inquiry,14, 425-438.
• Berthou,A.& E. Dhyne (2018). Exchange Rate Movements, Firm Level Exports and Heterogeneity. W. P. 660, Banque de France
• Berument, H. &N. Dinçer(2004). The Effects of Exchange Rate Risk on Economic Performance the Turkish Experience. Applied Economics, .36..2429–2441
• Berument, H.M., Dincer, N.N. & Z. Mustafaoglu (2014). External Income Shocks and Turkish Exports: A Sectoral Analysis. Economic Modelling. 37,476-484.
• Bussière, M., Gaulier, G. & W. Steingress.(2020). Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities. Open Economies Review, 31,.1,.25-78.
• Bozok, İ., Doğan, B.Ş. & Yunculr, C. (2015). Estimating Income and Price Elasticity of Turkish Exports with Heterogeneous Panel Time-Series Methods. C.B.R.T Working P..
• Brada, J., Kutan, A..M.& Zhou, S. (1997). The Exchange Rate and The Balance of Trade Turkish Experience. The J. of Development Studies, 33 (5)6 75-692 .https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389708422489
• Broll, U. & B.Echwert (1999). Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade. Southern Economic J., 66 (1) 178 -185
• Calvo, G.A. & C.M. Reinhart (2002). Fear of Floating. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,.117(2),379.
• Celasun, M. (1994).Trade and Industrialization In Turkey Initial conditions, policy and performance in the 1980s. Trade Policy and Industrialization in Turbulent Times
• C.B.R.T.(2022)Foreign Exchange Parity Statistics(https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm /connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Statistics/Balance+of+Payments+and+Related+Statistics/International+Reserves+and+Foreign+Currncy+Liquidity/)
• Clark, P. B.(1973).Uncertainty, Exchange risk, and the Level of International Trade. Economic Inquiry, 11, 302–313.
• Cohen, M.A.& S.Mallik(1997). Global Supply Chains : Research and Applications. Production and Operation Management, 6(3),1-18.
• Çulha,O.Y.& Kalafatçılar, M. K. (2014). Türkiye’de İhracatın Gelir ve Fiyat Esnekliklerine Bir Bakış: Bölgesel Farklılıkların Önemi. TCMB Ekonomi Notları, 5.
• Cushman,D.(1983).The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Risk on International Trade. Journal of International Economics,15,45-63.
• Chowdhury, A.R (1993). Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models. The Review of Economics and Statistics.75(4(700) https://www.jstor.org/stable/2110025
• Çağlayan, O., Dahi, S., & Fırat Demir (2013). Trade Flows, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Financial Depth:Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries. Southern Economic Journal. 79., 4, 905 -927.
• Çelgin, A.,Gökcü,M.& Özel,Ö. (2019)İhracat ve İthalatta Gelir ve Göreli Fiyat Etkilerinin Ayrıştırılması, Ekonomi Notu, 1905. TCMB.
• De-Grauwe,P.(1988). Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade. IMF S. P, 35(1) 63-84
• Dellas, H. & B.Z.Zilberfarb (1993). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade: A Reexamination of the Theory. Southern Economic J., 59(4) .641-647 .https://www.jstor.org/stable /1059729 Dixit, A.(1987). International Trade Policy for Oligopolistic Industries, International Trade, ed. J. Bhagwati. MIT Press
• Dornbusch, R., Werner, A., Calvo, G. & S. Fischer (1994). Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.1,.253-270 Edwards, S. (1989). Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries. The World Bank Research Observer . 4. 1,3-21. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3986346
• Eaton, J. (1987) A Dynamic Specific Factors Model of International Trade. NBER W.P.1419. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3986346
• Eaton, J.,Kortum, S. Neiman, B. & J. Romalis (2016) Trade and the Global Recession. NBER W. P., 16666. https://www.nber.org/papers/w16666
• Engle, R.F & C.W.Granger(1987).Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276
• Erdal, G., Erdal, H. & K. Esengün (2012) The effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: evidence from Turkish Agricultural Trade. Applied Economics Letters, 19,3,297-303.
• Ethier, W.(1973). International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market. The American Economic R. 63, 3, 494-503 https://www.jstor.org/stable/1914383
• Erlat, G.& H.Erlat (2012)Comparative Advantage Of Turkish Exports Vis-À-Vis The EU & OECD Countries, 1990-2000. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 23, 77-106.
• Fanelli, S. & L.Straub (2020). Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions. NBER Working P. 27872 http://www.nber.org/papers/w27872.
• Fang, W.,Lai, Y. & S.M.Miller(2006). Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Changes: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization? Southern Economic J.72,3,611-626. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20111836
• FED (2013) https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20131011a.htm.
• Franke, G.(1991). Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy. Journal of International Money & Finance 10:292-307.
• Greenaway, D., Kneller R.& X. Zhang (2010). Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Decisions in the UK. J. Economic I.,. 25, 4,.734-753.
• Gourinchas,P.O.(2017).Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: An Application to Chile. Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures 1, 279–324.
• Göçer, İ & B.Elmas (2013).Genişletilmiş Marshall Lerner Koşulu Çerçevesinde Reel Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Performansına Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi Analizi.BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar D.,7, 1,137-157.
• Grossman, G. .& E.Helpman(1991.) Trade, Knowledge Spillovers, and Growth.European Economic R., 35(2). 517- 526
• Gupta, S. (1980) Exchange Risk in International Trade Under Alternative Exchange Systems: The Developing Countries' Experience. Ph.D. D. Michigan S. U.
• Gül, S.(2018).Türkiye'de Reel Kur Hareketlerinin İhracat Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri. Ç. T., 1812, TCMB.
• Hassani,K.& S.Dost (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on international trade and China’s trade. Turkish Economic R.,. 7, 2 www.kspjournals.org
• Harberger, A.C.(1950).Currency Depreciation, Income and the Balance of Trade. J. of Political Economy. 58(1).47-60.
• Hepaktan, E.& S.Çınar (2011).Mali Krizler ve Son mali Krizin Reel Sektöre Etkisi Dumlupınar Ü. Sosyal B. D.. 30, 37.-382.
• Holly,S.(1995).Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Performance: Supply and Demand Effects Scottish J.P.E.42,381-391.https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scotjp/v42y1995 i4p381 -91.html
• Hoque, A.(1995). Co-integrating relationship between terms of trade and current account deficit: the Australian evidence. Applied Economics Letters,2,.4,130-133,
• Houthakker, H.S .& Stephen P. Magee (1969) Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade. The R. of Economics and Statistics.51,2,111-125. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1926720
• Humphrey, J.. (2007).Upgrading in Global Value Chains. Humphrey, John, Upgrading in Global Value Chains (May, 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=908214 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.908214
• Iossifov, P. & X. Fei. (2019) Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey, IMF W. P., 19,131.
• Jianping, Z. and L.Huan, Feifei, J., H. Zhuping( 2020)South‐South Integration and the SDGs:. Enhancing Structural Transformation in Key Partner. Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative. UNCTAD/BRI PROJECT/RP12
• Kabaklarlı,, E., Duran, M.S. & Y.T.Üçler (2017)The Determinants Of High-Technology Exports: A Panel Data Approach For Selected OECD Countries.Dubrovnik International Economic Meeting, 3,1. DIEM : Dubrovnik International Economic Meeting,
• Kalemli-Ozcan, Ş.(2020).Emerging and Frontier Markets: Capital Flows, Risks, and Growth. NBER W.P.https://www.nber.org/conferences/emerging-and-frontier -markets- capital-flows-risks-andgrowth -fall-2020
• Kalemli-Ozcan,Ş. (2019).U.S. Monetary Policy And International Risk Spillovers. NBER W. P. 26297 http://www.nber.org/papers/w26297
• Kasman, A.& S. Kasman (2005).Exchange rate uncertainty in Turkey and its impact on Export Volume. M.E.Technical U. J.,32,.41-58
• Kazdal, A.& S. Gül (2021). Türkiye’de İhracat ve Reel Kur Arasında Zamana Göre Değişen İlişki Sektörel Düzeyde Güncel Bir İnceleme. C.B. R.T. W. P. 21, 38.
• Kenen, P.B. & Rodrik, D. (1986). Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-Term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates.The R.. of Economics and Statistics ,68,.2,311-315
• Kerr, W.A. (2021). Agriculture after a year with COVID-19: Any long-term implications for international trade policy? Canadian J. of Agricultural E.. S Issue. doi10.1111/cjag.12274
• Konya, L. (2006) Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries. Economic M., 23, 978–992.
• Kuznet, S. (1934) National Income. Chapter in National Income, 1929-1932, NBER, W.P.1 -12.
• Krugman,P.(1979). Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade. J.I.l Economics, 469-479.
• Krugman,P.(1987).Pricing to Market When the Exchange Rate Changes.' In Real-Financial Linkages among Open Economies, ed. by S. W. Arndt & J. D. Richardson. MIT Press.
• Laursen,S.L. &Metzler,A(1950). Flexible Exchange Rates and the Theory of Employment, The R. of Economics and Statistics, 32 (4)281-299
• Leigh,D.,Lian,W.,Poplawski-Ribeiro,M.,Szymanski,R.,Tsyrennikov,V.and H.Yang (2017) Exchange rates and trade:A disconnect? IMF W.P.17/58 https://www.jstor.or/stable /1925511
• Leith, C.J. ( 1971)The Effects of Tariffs on Production, Consumption, and Trade: A Revised Analysis. The American Economic Review, 61, (1 )74-81. http://www.jstor.com/stable/1910542
• Lerner, A. (1944) The Economics of Control, New York
• Magee, S.P.(1973).Currency Contracts, Pass-Through and Devaluation,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1,303-325.
• Markusen, J.& Venables,A.(1996). The Theory of Endowment, Intra industry trade and Multinational Trade. NBER W. P..5529.
• Marshall, A. (1923) Money, Credit and Commerce, London: Macmillan and Co.
• Mendoza,E.G.(1995) The terms of trade, the real exchange rate and economic fluctuations,International Economic R.,36.1,.101-137.https://www.jstor.org /stable/2527429.
• Miranda,-Agrippino, S. & H. Rey (2019). US Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle. NBER W.P. 21722 http://www.nber.org/papers/w21722
• Morris, M. & C. Staritz (2019) Industrialization paths and industrial policy for developing countries in global value chainsHandbook Chapters./DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781788113779.00041
• Nazlıoğlu, S.(2013) Exchange rate volatility and Turkish industry-level export: Panel cointegration analysis. The J. T. & E.Development, 22,7,1088
• Obstfeld, M., Ostry J.,Mahvash, D.& S. Qureshi(2019). A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 101 (2), 279–293. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00740
• Obstfeld,M.& K. Rogoff(1994).Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux. NBER W. P..4693.
• Ohlin, B. (1935). Interregional and International Trade. Cambridge: Harvard U. Press
• Obayelu,A.E.Edewor, S.E. and A.O.Ogbe(2020).Trade Effects, Policy Responses and Opportunities of COVID-19 Outbreak in Africa. Journal of Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 1, 1-3 .
• OECD(2022). Definition of Terms of Trade and TOT Statistics.https://data.oecd.org /trade/terms-of-trade.htmtext=Terms%20of%20trade%20are%20defined,it%20can%20purchase%20more%20imports.
• OECD (2021).GDP Statistics. https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm
• Orhangazi, Ö. & A.E.Yeldan (2021) The Re-making of the Turkish Crisis The Re-making of the Turkish Crisis.Development and Change, 52: 460-503. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12644.
• Öztürk, İ. & A. Acaravcı (2010). Testing The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence From Turkey. The J. of Developing Areas, 44,1 245-254
• Öztürk, İ. &A.Acaravcı (2009). Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports in Türkiye. Int. J. of Economic Research, 6(2)285-293.
• Özmen, E. & D.Yolcu Karadam (2014). Structural Change in Turkish External Trade: Evidence from BEC Sectors ERC W. P. in Economics 14/13.
• Pesaran, H.M., Shin, Y. and Richard J. Smith (2001). Bound Tests of Applied Econometrics. J. of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
• Pere,E.&A.Steinherr(1989).Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Foreign Trade. European Economic R.,33,1241–64
• Pozo,S.(1992). Conditional Exchange Rate Volatility and the Volume of International Trade: Evidence from the Early 1990s. R. of Economics and Statistics,74, 325–29.
• Rose,A.(2000). One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currency on Trade. Economic Policy 30, 7–45.
• Reinhart, C.(1995).Devaluations, relative prices, and international trade. IMF S P., 42, 290 -312
• Rey ,H. (2013). Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence. Proceedings, Jackson Hole Conference Procedia.
• Rodriguez, C. A.( 1979) The Quality of Imports and the Differential Welfare Effects of Tariffs, Quotas, and Quality Controls as Protective Devices. The Canadian J. of Economics. 12( 3) 439-449. https://www.jstor.org/stable/134732
• Rogoff, K.(1992). Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate. B.J. Monetary & Economic S.,10, l, 1-29.
• Ricardo, D. (1817). The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. The U.K.
• Sachs, J. D. (1981). The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s. Brookings P. on Economic Activity,1, 201-68.
• Samuelson, P.(1953).Prices of Factors and Goods in General Equilibrium. R. of Economic Studies, 21(1) 1-20.
• Saygılı,H. & M.Saygılı (2011). Structural Changes in Exports of An Emerging Economy: Case of Türkiye. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,22, 342-60.
• Sen, A.,Saray, O.M. & M. Karagoz (2009) Intra-Industry Trade between Türkiye and OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, 12, (2) 73-86
• Sercue, P. & C. Vanhulle (1992). Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms. J. of Banking and Finance,16(1),155-182.
• Stolper,W.F. & P.A.Samuelson(1941).Protection and Real Wages. R. of Economic Studies, 9, 58-73
• Smith,A.(1776). An Inquiry to Nature and Source of Wealth of Nations.
• Sturgeon, T.J. & Van Biesebroeck, J.(2011).Global value chains in the automotive industry: An enhanced role for developing countries? Int. J. Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, 4,( 1)2/3,
• Sukar, A. (1998). Real Effective Exchange Rates and Export Adjustment in the U. S. Q. J. of B. & Economics, 3,1,.3-12. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40473231
• Şimşek, M. & C. Kadılar(2005).The Cointegration Analysis of Türkiye's Export Demand Function By Bounds Test. Doğuş Ü. D.,6,144-152
• Tatlıyer, M.&F.Yiğit (2016). Does Exchange Rate Volatility Really Influence Foreign Trade? Evidence from Türkiye. International J. of Economics and Finance,.8.,2 .E-ISSN 1916 -9728
• Tarr, D.G.& M. E. Morkre(1984). Aggregate Costs to the United States of Tariffs and Quotas on Imports: General Tariff Cuts and Removal of Quotas on Automobiles, Steel, Sugar, and Textiles : an Economic Policy Analysis
• Türkcan,K.(2005). Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in Final Goods and Intermediate Goods between Türkiye and Selected OECD Countries.İ.Ü.İ.F.Ekonometri̇ ve İstati̇sti̇k D., .1,21-40
• Vergil, H. (2002). Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Its Effect on Trade Flows. J. of Economic & Social Research, 4(1).
• Verschuur,J., Koks, E. & J.W.Hall (2020)Observed impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global trade Nature Human Behavior https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01060-5.pdf
• Yanıkkaya, H. (2001). The Influence of Real Exchange Rates on Turkish Agricultural Exports. Gazi Ü.İ.İ.B F. D., 3,1.https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/gaziuiibfd /issue/28351 /301393#article-authors-list
• Wang ,K .& C. Barret (2007). Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes.J. of Agricultural and Resource Economics, .32(2) 225-255. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40987362
• Weiwei, Z., Wang, D.,Muhammad T. M.& S.Sohail (2021) COVID-19 and international trade: insights and policy challenges in China and US, Economic Research.10.1080/1331677X.2021.193009