TÜRKİYE’DE SEKTÖREL İSTİHDAM VE BÖLGESEL KALKINMA İLİŞKİSİ: SHIFT – SHARE (DEĞİŞİM PAYI) ANALİZİ

Year 2013, Volume: 63 Issue: 2, 0 - , 02.06.2014

Merter Akıncı , Ömer Yılmaz

Abstract

Bölgesel kalkınma bağlamında, bölgelerin istihdam potansiyelinden yeterli
pay alabilme durumları kadar, güçlü sektörlerde istihdamı çekebilmeleri
de büyük önem taşımaktadır. İstihdamın sektörel dağılımdaki değişmeler
ise zamanla önemli farklılıkları yansıtabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, sektörler
arasındaki istihdamın bölgesel kalkınma süreci üzerindeki etkilerini 26 alt
bölge için 2004 – 2011 döneminde belirleyebilmek amacıyla geleneksel shift
– share analizi kullanılmıştır. Üç ana sektör düzeyinde yapılan analiz sonuçları,
Marmara ve Ege bölgelerinde bulunan alt bölgelerin kalkınma süreçlerinin
en yüksek olduğunu göstermiştir. İlaveten, Marmara ve Ege bölgelerini
takiben Orta ve Güney Anadolu bölgelerinin de önemli kalkınma süreci
gösterdikleri tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, ilgili dönemde en kötü performansın
Kuzeydoğu ve Doğu Anadolu bölgeleri tarafından sergilendiği söylenebilir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Sektörel İstihdam, Bölgesel Kalkınma, Shift –
Share Analizi
JEL Sınıflandırması: C10, E24, R11, R12
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT AND
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN TURKEY: SHIFT – SHARE ANALYSIS
ABSTRACT
In the context of regional development, besides taking enough shares from
employment potential, attracting the employment in the powerful sectors is
also important. The changes in the sectoral distribution of employment can
also show important differences in the course of time. Therefore in this study,
traditional shift – share analysis is used in order to determine the effects
of inter-sectoral employment on regional development process for 26 sub

regions in the period of 2004 – 2011. The results of the analysis applied for
three main sectors level indicate that the development process is the highest
in the sub-regions located in Marmara and Aegean regions. In addition, it is
found that following the Marmara and Aegean regions, Central and South
Anatolia regions have shown important development process, either. Also,
it can be said that the worst performance have introduced by Northeast and
East Anatolia regions in the mentioned period.
Keywords: Sectoral Employment, Regional Development, Shift –
Share Analysis
JEL Classification: C10, E24, R11, R12

Keywords

Sektörel İstihdam, Bölgesel Kalkınma, Shift – Share Analizi

References

• Altıok, Metin ve Tuncer, İsmail (2011), “Türkiye İmalat Sanayinde Yapısal Değişim ve Üretkenlik: 1980-2008 Dönemi”, Anadolu International Conference in Economics II, June 15-17, Eskişehir.
• Arcelus, Francisco J. (1984) “An Extension of Shift-Share Analysis”, Growth and Change, 15(1), pp. 3-8.
• Baptista, Rui, Escaria, Vitor and Madruga, Paulo (2008), “Entrepreneurship, Regional Development and Job Creation: The Case of Portugal”, Small Business Economics, 30(1), pp. 49-58.
• Baptista, Rui and Preto, Miguel T. (2011), “New Firm Formation and Employment Growth: Regional and Business Dynamics”, Small Business Economics, 36(4), pp. 419-442.
• Beceren, Ertan (2003a), Bölgesel Rekabet Gücünün 1980 Sonrası Analizi: Değişim Payı (Shift-Share) Yaklaşımı, (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi), İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Anabilim Dalı, İstanbul.
• Beceren, Ertan (2003b), “Bölgesel Kalkınma Analizlerinde Değişim Payı (Shift-Share) Yaklaşımı”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3), ss. 27-48.
• Berber, Metin (2011), İktisadi Büyüme ve Kalkınma, 4. Baskı, Derya Kitabevi, Trabzon.
• Berzeg, Korhan (1978), “The Empirical Content of Shift – Share Analysis”, Journal of Regional Science, 18(3), pp. 463-468.
• Bielik, P. and Rajcaniova, M. (2008), “Shift-Share Analysis of Employment Growth: The Case of the V4 Countries”, Agricultural Economics, 54(8), pp. 347-351.
• Bingham, Richard D., Hill, Edward W. and White, Sammis B. (1990), Financing Economic Development: An Institutional Response, Sage Publications, USA.
• Birch, David L. (1987), Job Creation in America: How Our Smallest Companies Put the Most People to Work, The Free Press, New York.
• Blien, Uwe and Wolf, Katja (2002), “Regional Development of Employment in Eastern Germany: An Analysis with an Econometric Analogue to ShiftShare Techniques”, Papers in Regional Science, 81(3), pp. 391-414.
• Broersma, Lourens and Gautier, Pieter (1997), “Job Creation and Job Destruction by Small Firms: An Empirical Investigation for the Dutch Manufacturing Sector”, Small Business Economics, 9(3), pp. 211-224. Carod, Josep M. A., Solis, Daniel L. and Bofarull, Monica M. (2008), “New Business Formation and Employment Growth: Some Evidence for the Spanish Manufacturing Industry”, Small Business Economics, 30(1), pp. 73-84.
• Creamer, Daniel (1942), Industrial Location and National Resources, U.S. National Resource Planning Board, Washington.
• Damesick, Peter J. (1986), “Service Industries, Employment and Regional Development in Britain: A Review of Recent Trends and Issues”, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 11(2), pp. 212-226.
• Davidsson, Per, Lindmark, Leif and Olofsson, Christer (1994), “New Firm Formation and Regional Development in Sweden”, Regional Studies, 28(4), pp. 395-410.
• Dunn, Edgar S. (1960), “A Statistical and Analytical Technique for Regional Analysis”, Papers in Regional Science, 6(1), pp. 97-112.
• Esteban, J. (2000), “Regional Convergence in Europe and the Industry Mix: A Shift-Share Analysis”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 30(3), pp. 353-364.
• Esteban-Marquillas, Joan M. (1972), “A Reinterpretation of Shift-Share Analysis”, Regional and Urban Economics, 2(3), pp. 249-255.
• Fritsch, Michael (1992), “Regional Differences in New Firm Formation: Evidence from West Germany”, Regional Studies, 26(3), pp. 233-241. Fritsch, Michael (1997), “New Firms and Regional Employment Change”, Small Business Economics, 9(5), pp. 437-448.
• Fritsch, Michael and Mueller, Pamela (2004), “Effects of New Business Formation on Regional Development over Time”, Regional Studies, 38(8), pp. 961-975.
• Garofoli, Gioacchino (1994), “New Firm Formation and Regional Development: The Italian Case”, Regional Studies, 28(4), pp. 381-393.
• Guisan, M. Carmen and Aguayo, Eva (2001), “Employment and Regional Development in France”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 1(1), pp. 63-92.
• Guisan, M. Carmen and Aguayo, Eva (2002), “Employment and Regional Development in Italy”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2(1), pp. 41-72.
• Guisan, M. Carmen and Aguayo, Eva (2004), “Employment, Population and Regional Development in Western and Central Europe: Econometric Models and Challenges of EU Enlargement”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(2), pp. 129-142.
• Hanham, Robert Q. and Banasick, Shawn (2000), “Shift-Share Analysis and Changes in Japanese Manufacturing Employment”, Growth and Change, 31(1), pp. 108-123.
• Hassan, M. K. Hisyam, Rashid, Z. Abdul and Hamid, K. Abdul (2011), “East Coast Economic Region and from the Perspective of Shift-Share Analysis”, International Journal of Business and Society, 12(1), pp. 79Herzog, Henry W. and Olsen, Richard J. (1977), “Shift-Share Analysis Revisited: The Allocation Effect and the Stability of Regional Structure”, Journal of Regional Science, 17(3), pp. 441-454.
• Jasmand, Stephanie and Maennig, Wolfgang (2008), “Regional Income and Employment Effects of the 1972 Munich Summer Olympic Games”, Regional Studies, 42(7), pp. 991-1002.
• Johnson, P. S. and Cathcart, D. G. (1979), “New Manufacturing Firms and Regional Development: Some Evidence from the Northern Region”, Regional Studies, 13(3), pp. 269-280.
• Klaassen, L. H. and Paelinck, J. H. P. (1972), “Asymmetry in Shift and Share Analysis”, Regional and Urban Economics, 2(3), pp. 256-261. Knudsen, Daniel C. (2000), “Shift-Share Analysis: Further Examination of Models for the Description of Economic Change”, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 34(3), pp. 177-198.
• Lucas, Robert E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), pp. 3-42.
• Mathur, Vijay K. (1999), “Human Capital-Based Strategy for Regional Economic Development”, Economic Development Quarterly, 13(3), pp. 203-216.
• Mueller, Pamela, Stel, Andre V. and Storey, David J. (2008), “The Effects of New Firm Formation on Regional Development over Time: The Case of Great Britain”, Small Business Economics, 30(1), pp. 59-71. Oğuz, Şebnem and Knight, Jonathan (2010), “Regional Economic Indicators: A Focus on Regional Gross Value Added Using Shift-Share Analysis”, Economic and Labour Market Review, 4, pp. 74-87.
• Patterson, M. G. (1989), “Regional Employment in New Zealand 1981-86: Shift-Share Versus Regression Analysis”, New Zealand Geographer, 45(1), pp. 26-35.
• Perloff, Harvey S., Dunn, Edgar S., Lampard, Eric E. and Muth, Richard F. (1960), Regions, Resources and Economic Growth, The John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.
• Picot, Garnett and Dupuy, Richard (1998), “Job Creation by Company Size Class: The Magnitude, Concentration and Persistence of Job Gains and Losses in Canada”, Small Business Economics, 10(2), pp. 117-139.
• Renkow, Mitch (2003), “Employment Growth, Worker Mobility and Rural Economic Development”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 85(2), pp. 503-513.
• Sakashita, Noboru (1973), “An Axiomatic Approach to Shift and Share Analysis”, Regional and Urban Economics, 3(3), pp. 263-272.
• Sakashita, Noboru and Kamoike, Osamu (1973), “National Growth and Regional Income Inequality: A Consistent Model”, International Economic Review, 14(2), pp. 372-382.
• Sırakaya, Ercan, Choi, Hwan S. and Var, Turgut (2002), “Shift-Share Analysis in Tourism: Examination of Tourism Employment Change in a Region”, Tourism Economics, 8(3), pp. 303-324.
• Simpson, Michael, Dawkins, Peter and Madden, Gary (1997), “Casual Employment in Australia: Incidence and Determinants”, Australian Economic Papers, 36(69), pp. 194-204.
• Solow, Robert M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), pp. 65-94.
• Stephanedes, Yorgos J. and Eagle, David (1987), “Highway Impacts on Regional Employment”, Journal of Advanced Transportation, 21(1), pp. 67-79.
• Stimson, Robert J., Stough, Roger R. and Roberts, Brian H. (2006), Regional Economic Development: Analysis and Planning Strategy, Second Edition, Springer, Germany.
• Stokes, H. Kemble (1974), “Shift Share Once Again”, Regional and Urban Economics, 4(1), pp. 57-60.
• Şahin, Mehmet ve Uysal, Özge (2011), “Bölgesel Kalkınma Çerçevesinde Yatırım Teşviklerinin Shift-Share Analizi”, Maliye Dergisi, 160, ss. 111-1
• Şahin, Mehmet, Uysal, Özge ve Kuru, Elif (2012), “Türkiye Turizm Politikasının Shift-Share Analizi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32(1), ss. 95-122.
• Şahin, Mehmet ve Uysal, Özge (2013), “Türkiye’de Bölgesel İstihdamın Shift Share (Pay Dönüşümü) Analizi”, Kamu-İş, 13(1), ss. 9-36.
• Theil, Henri and Gosh, Riddhi (1980), “A Comparison of Shift – Share and the RAS Adjustment”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 10(2), pp. 175-180.
• Van Stel, Andre and Suddle, Kashifa (2008), “The Impact of New Firm Formation on Regional Development in the Netherlands”, Small Business Economics, 30(1), pp. 31-47.
• Yasin, Mahmoud, Alavi, Jafar, Sobral, Filipe and Lisboa, Joao (2004), “A Shift-Share Analysis Approach to Understanding the Dynamic of the Portuguese Tourism Market”, Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 17(4), pp. 11-22.