Emtia fiyatları ve navlun oranları arasındaki etkileşim: Kuru dökme yük piyasası raporlarının içerik analizi

Year 2021, , 39 - 48, 30.06.2021

Abdullah Açık , Sadık Özlen Başer

https://doi.org/10.47899/ijss.20213104

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Dünya ekonomisinde nihai ürünler için ham madde olarak kullanılan emtiaların büyük bir çoğunluğu deniz yoluyla kuru dökme yük gemileriyle taşınmaktadır. Türetilmiş talep yapısı nedeniyle, emtialara olan talep denizciliğe olan talebi doğrudan etkilemektedir. Emtialara olan talebin en büyük göstergelerinden biri ise fiyatlarıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ampirik literatürde birçok çalışma tarafından incelenen ve doğrulanan emtia fiyatı ve navlun oranı arasındaki ilişkinin denizcilik sektöründe nasıl yorumlandığını araştırmaktır. Bu doğrultuda denizcilik sektörünün önde gelen kurumlarından Fearnleys tarafından yayımlanan sektör raporları yorumlayıcı içerik analizi yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. İncelenen piyasa raporları 23 Şubat 2005 ve 13 Kasım 2019 tarihleri arasını kapsamaktadır ve haftalık bazda 752 piyasa özeti raporundan oluşmaktadır. Raporlarda kuru dökme yük piyasası ile ilgili olan ve Capesize, Panamax ve Handymax piyasalarını özetleyen bölümler incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, sektör raporlarında emtia fiyatı ve navlun oranları arasındaki ilişki emtia fiyatının kendine olan talebi yansıtması varsayımıyla yorumlanmaktadır. Ayrıca gemi tipleri arasındaki yük geçişkenliği navlun seviyelerine göre ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu yüzden emtia fiyatlarından gelen bilgiler ve oynaklıklar sadece uzmanlaşan geminin navlunlarını değil, diğer piyasa navlunlarını da etkilemektedir.

Keywords

Emtia Fiyatı, Kuru Dökme Yük Piyasası, Sektör Raporları, İçerik Analizi

Thanks

Bu çalışma Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Denizcilik İşletmeleri Yönetimi Anabilim Dalında 2020 yılında tamamlanmış “Agent based interaction of commodity price and freight market / Emtia fiyatı ve navlun piyasasının ajan bazlı etkileşimi” başlıklı tezden üretilmiştir.

Interaction between commodity prices and freight rates: Content analysis of the dry bulk market reports

Abstract

Most of the commodities used as raw materials for final products in the world economy are transported by sea by dry bulk cargo ships. Due to the derived demand structure, the demand for commodities directly affects the demand for shipping. One of the biggest indicators of the demand for commodities is their prices. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the relationship between commodity price and freight rate, which has been examined and verified by many studies in the empirical literature, is interpreted in the maritime industry. In this direction, the industry reports published by Fearnleys, one of the leading institutions of the maritime industry, are analyzed using interpretive content analysis method. Investigated market reports cover the period 23 February 2005 to 13 November 2019 and consist of a 752-week market summary report. The sections related to the dry bulk market and summarizing the Capesize, Panamax and Handymax markets are examined in the reports. According to the results, the relationship between the commodity price and freight rates in the sector reports is interpreted with the assumption that the commodity price reflects the demand for itself. In addition, the cargo shift between ship types arises according to the freight levels. Therefore, information and volatilities from commodity prices affect not only the freight of the specialized ship, but also the other freight markets.

Keywords

Commodity Price, Dry Bulk Market, Sector Reports, Content Analysis

References

• Açık, A. & Başer, S.Ö. (2018a). An analytical study on the likely causes of the minor bubbles in the baltic dry index. International Journal of Logistics Economics and Globalisation, 7(4), 353-365.
• Açık, A. & Başer, S.Ö. (2018b). The effects of fast decline in crude oil prices on the tanker market in the short run. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(1), 61-82.
• Açık, A. & Başer, S.Ö. (2019a). Impact of commodity price on freight market considering the 2008 crisis: An investigation of iron ore price and capesize shipping rates. II. Business & Organization Research Conference Full Text Book (pp. 1087-1099), Organized by Yaşar University. İzmir. 4th-6th September 2019.
• Açık, A. & Başer, S.Ö. (2020). Asymmetric causality from commodity prices to shipping markets: an empirical research on Istfix region. World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research, 9(1), 47-62.
• Açık, A. & İnce, M.R. (2019). Do commodity price shocks matter for dry bulk freight markets?. In Ö. Kaya (Ed.), Studies on Social Sciences (pp. 77-101). Ankara: İKSAD Publishing House.
• Ahuvia, A. (2001). Traditional, interpretive, and reception based content analyses: Improving the ability of content analysis to address issues of pragmatic and theoretical concern. Social Indicators Research, 54(2), 139–172.
• Alizadeh, A. & Nomikos, N. (2009). Shipping derivatives and risk management. London: Macmillian.
• Angelopoulos, J., Sahoo, S. & Visvikis, I. D. (2020). Commodity and transportation economic market interactions revisited: New evidence from a dynamic factor model. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 133, 1-15.
• Başer, S.Ö. & Açık, A . (2019a). Do commodity prices matter for second hand values? An empirical research on capesize market. Turkish Journal of Maritime and Marine Sciences. 5(1), 44-52.
• Branch, A. (2007). Elements of shipping (8th ed). London: Routledge.
• Buxton, L., Daggitt, R.B. & King, J. (1978). Cargo access equipment for merchant ships. London: MacGregor Publications Ltd.
• Chen, S., Meersman, H., Van de Voorde, E. & Frouws, K. (2014). Modelling and forecasting in dry bulk shipping. London: Informa Law from Routledge.
• Chou, M. T., Su, Y. L., Chou, T. Y., & Liang, H. U. (2015). An analysis of the relationship between Asian Steel Index and the Baltic Capsize Index. Modern Economy, 6(2), 207-216.
• Drisko, J. W. & Maschi, T. (2016). Content analysis. USA: Oxford University Press.
• Fearnleys (2019). Fearnleys Weekly Market Reports. Retrieved from https://fearnleys.com/.
• Geman, H. (Ed.). (2009). Risk management in commodity markets: From shipping to agriculturals and energy (Vol. 445). USA: John Wiley & Sons.
• Gubbins, E. J. (1996). The shipping industry: The technology and economics of specialization. Canada: Gordon and Breach Publishers.
• Hinkelman, E. G. (2008). Dictionary of international trade (8th Edition). Czech Republic: World Trade Press.
• Holsti, O. (1969). Content analysis for the social sciences and humanities. London: Addison-Wesley.
• Karakitsos, E. & Varnavides, L. (2014). Maritime economics: A macroeconomic approach. London: Springer.
• Kaukiainen, Y. (2012). The advantages of water carriage: Scale economies and shipping technology, c. 1870–2000. In Harlaftis, G., Tenold, S., Valdaliso, J. (Eds.), The World’s key industry: History and economics of international shipping (pp. 64-87). USA: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Kavussanos, M., Visvikis, I., & Dimitrakopoulos, D. (2010). Information linkages between panamax freight derivatives and commodity derivatives markets. Maritime Economics and Logistics, 12(1), 91-110.
• Kavussanos, M.G., Visvikis, I.D., & Dimitrakopoulos, D.N. (2014). Economic spillovers between related derivatives markets: The case of commodity and freight markets. Transportation Research Part E, 68, 79–102.
• Koopmans, T. C. (1939). Tanker freight rates and tankship building. Holland: Haarlem.
• Krippendorff, K. (2013). Content analysis: An introduction to its methodology (3rd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
• Langdana, F. K. (2009). Macroeconomic policy: Demystifying monetary and fiscal policy. USA: Springer.
• Lawson, M. (2008). If not now, when? Three actions the G20 must take now to protect the world’s poor from the economic crisis and build a new political and economic governance system. Oxfam.
• Lun, Y. V., Lai, K. H. & Cheng, T. E. (2010). Shipping and logistics management. London: Springer.
• Ma, S. (2020). Economics of maritime business. London: Routledge.
• Marcus, H.S. (1987). Marine transportation management. London: Routledge.
• Mayring, P. (2000). Qualitative content analysis [28 paragraphs]. Forum Qualitative Sozialforschung/Forum: Qualitative Social Research, 1(2), Art. 20, Retrieved form http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0002204
• McConville, J. (1999). Economics of Maritime transport, theory and practice. London: Whiterby.
• Neuendorf, K. (2002). The content analysis guidebook. London: Sage.
• Radetzki, M. (2008). A handbook of primary commodities in the global economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Rodrigue, J.P. (2013). Transport and globalization. In Rodrigue, J.P., Notteboom, T. and Shaw, J. (Eds), The SAGE Handbook of Transport Studies (pp. 17-30). London: Sage.
• Rowbotham, M. (2014). Introduction to marine cargo management. UK: Informa Law from Routledge.
• Şahin, B., Gürgen, S., Ünver, B., & Altin, I. (2018). Forecasting the Baltic Dry Index by using an artificial neural network approach. Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering & Computer Sciences, 26(3), 1673-1684.
• Stopford, M. (2009). Maritime economics 3rd ed. London, Routledge.
• Tsioumas, V., & Papadimitriou, S. (2018). The dynamic relationship between freight markets and commodity prices revealed. Maritime Economics and Logistics, 20(2), 267-279.
• UNCTAD (2020). Review of maritime transport 2020. UNCTAD.
• United Nations (2009). World economic situation and prospects 2009 (World economic and social survey. Supplement). New York.
• Wilmsmeier, G. (2014). International maritime transport costs: market structures and network configurations. UK: Ashgate.