Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet

Year 2023, Issue: 2, 15 - 30, 25.06.2024

Ali Kerem Güler , Ali Musa , Mustafa Tarım , Osman Saraç , Mehmet Göktürk

https://doi.org/10.26650/JODA.1450459

Abstract

This article focuses on forecasting sales for restaurant businesses using the Prophet model developed by Facebook. A method is proposed to make more accurate forecasts by accounting for the effects external factors have on sales, including weather conditions and special days. The analyses conducted on the real-time sales data of the daily operations of a restaurant business (provided by PROTEL Inc.) reveal that the Prophet model can forecast the sales of different products based on daily sales and weather data. The prediction performance of the model was evaluated using four error metrics: Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Squared Error, and Root Mean Square Error. The results revealed that the model produced more consistent and accurate predictions for some product categories. This study, which aims to contribute to the literature through an optimization of operational efficiency and decision-making processes related to the restaurant industry, highlights the importance of external factors in sales forecasting in the restaurant industry and provides a detailed analysis of incorporating these factors into the forecasting process. The findings may support restaurant businesses in obtaining more accurate sales forecasts by taking external factors into account. In particular, understanding the effects of weather changes and special days on sales can contribute significantly to operational decisions in such areas as personnel planning and inventory management. In this regard, the article proposes innovative approaches to the challenges faced by restaurant operations, presenting different approaches found in the literature and a detailed model evaluation process.

Keywords

Machine Learning, Time Series Forecasting, Facebook Prophet

Project Number

26

Thanks

The data sets used in this research were provided by PROTEL A. Ş.

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