Yeni Küresel Güç Mücadelesi ile Soğuk Savaş Arasında Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz: Nereye Gidiyoruz?

Year 2021, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 24 - 38, 31.12.2021

Fatih Akgul

Abstract

Uluslararası sistem ve kutupluluk konuları uluslararası ilişkiler çalışmalarında her zaman ayrıcalıklı bir konuma sahip olsa da ABD ve Çin arasında beliren yeni güç mücadelesinden sonra daha fazla tartışılır olmuşlardır. Bu mücadele aynı zamanda büyük bir görüş ayrılığına da işaret etmektedir, çünkü bazıları bu mücadelenin çok kutuplu sistemin devamını, bazıları ise yeni bir Soğuk Savaş’la sonuçlanacağını öngörmektedir ki bunlar birbirinden oldukça farklı yapılardır ve uluslararası topluma yansımaları da bir o kadar farklı olacaktır. Bu makale, uluslararası düzenlerde ve sistemdeki değişimi değerlendirmek amacıyla Soğuk Savaş’la yeni güç mücadelesi arasında aktörler, yapı ve içerik açılarından karşılaştırmalı bir analiz sunmaktadır. Makale; aktörlerin, kapasiteleri ve rekabetleri bakımından Soğuk Savaş dönemindeki mücadeleye bir derece benzerlik gösterseler de uluslararası meseleleri yönetme ve sistemi etkileme konularında yeterli politik güç ve motivasyona sahip olmadıklarını iddia etmektedir. Daha da önemlisi, şartlar ve içerik bakımından da büyük farklılıklar bulunmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, yakın gelecekte çift kutuplu bir dünya öngörmek zordur. Bununla birlikte makale, bu güç mücadelesinin belli koşullar gerçekleştiği takdirde Soğuk Savaş benzeri bir kutuplaşmayla sonuçlanabileceğini de kabul etmektedir. ABD ve Çin ne kadar kutuplaşırsa küresel ticaret ve müşterek güvenliğe olumsuz etkileri uluslararası toplum tarafından o kadar fazla hissedilecektir ve bu etkiler uluslararası düzenlerin nasıl değişeceği ve sistemi neye dönüştüreceği konusunda belirleyici olacaktır.

Keywords

Küresel Güç Mücadelesi, Yeni Soğuk Savaş, Kutuplaşma, ABD, Çin

A Comparative Analysis between the New Great Power Competition and the Cold War: Quo Imus?

Abstract

Although international system and polarity are always favorite subjects in international relations studies, following the emergence of a power competition between the US and China, they have been discussed more widely. This competition also has triggered an important debate, since some have predicted continuity of the multipolar system while others have predicted a new Cold War, which are quite different structures and imply very different reflections to the international community. This article proposes a comparative analysis between the Cold War and current power competition with their actors, structure, and content to assess the change in the international orders and the system. The article concludes that although the actors with their potentials and rivalry present some level of similarity with the Cold War, they don’t have enough political power and motivation to manage international affairs, nor have they enough control over the system. More importantly, there are other significant differences in the conditions and content of competition. Therefore, it is hard to predict a bipolar world in the near future since the reis no significant change in international orders. However, the article also acknowledges that a Cold War like polarization is still possible under some conditions. The more the US and China polarize the more its negative effects on global trade and collective security will be felt by the international community and these effects will be indicative of how the international orders change and transform the system.

Keywords

Great power competition, new Cold War, polarity, the US, China

References

• Akgul, F. (2021). A comparison between the concepts of gray zone and hybrid war: what is new for international security? The Journal of Security Strategies, 17(38), 411-439, https://doi:10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.964066
• Allison, G. (2020). The new spheres of influence sharing the globe with other great powers. Foreign Affairs, 99(2), 30-40.
• Ashford, E. (2018). Unbalanced: rethinking America’s commitment to the Middle East. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 12(1), 127-148.
• BBC News. (2019, December 27). Russia deploys Avangard hypersonic missile system. BBC News Online. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50927648
• BBC News. (2020, January 16). A quick guide to the US-China trade war. BBC News Online. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310.
• Biscop, S. (2019). EU-U.S. consensus and NATO-EU cooperation. In Valasek, T. (Ed.) New perspectives on shared security: NATO’s next 70 years. (pp. 15-18). Brussels, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publications.
• Brooks S. G. & Wohlforth, W. C. (2015/2016). The rise and fall of the great powers in the twenty-first century: China’s rise and the fate of America’s global position. International Security, 40(3), 7-53, https://doi.org.10.1162/ISEC_a_00225
• Brzezinski, Z. (1997). The grand chessboard: American primacy and its geostrategic imperatives. New York, NY: Basic Books.
• Diesen, G. (2018). Russia’s geoeconomic strategy of a Greater Eurasia. London: Routledge.
• Financial Times. (2020, October 6). New cold war serial. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/4fda1b2c-48f5-42e0-9b87-58816adf2a78
• Gilli A. & Gilli, M. (2018/2019). Why China has not caught up yet. International Security, 43(3), 141–189, https://doi.org.10.1162/ISEC_a_00337
• Gilpin, R. (1981). War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge University Press.
• Global FirePower. (2021). 2021 Military Strength Ranking. Retrieved from https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php.
• Guterres, A. (2020, September 22). Address to the opening of the general debate of the 75th session of the General Assembly. UN Official Web Site. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2020-09-22/address-the-opening-of-the-general-debate-of-the-75th-session-of-the-general-assembly
• Haass, R.N. (2008). The age of nonpolarity: What will follow US dominance? Foreign Affairs, 87(3), 44-56.
• Huntington S. P. (1999). The lonely superpower. Foreign Affairs, 78(2), 35-49.
• Ikenberry, G. J. (2018). The end of liberal international order?, International Affairs, 94:1, 7–23; https://doi:10.1093/ia/iix241
• Jinping, X. (2021, May 1). Speech at the virtual Davos Agenda event, CGTN, Retrieved from https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-01-25/Full-text-Xi-Jinping-s-speech-at-the-virtual-Davos-Agenda-event-Xln4hwjO2Q/index.html
• Johnston, A. I. (2019). China in a world of orders: rethinking compliance and challenge in Beijing’s international relations. International Security, 44(2), 9-60, https://doi.org.10.1162/ISEC_a_00360
• Kaplan, R. D. (2020, January 1). A new cold war has begun. Foreign Policy, Retrieved from https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/07/a-new-cold-war-has-begun/ Karaganov, S. (2018). The new Cold War and the emerging Greater Eurasia. Journal of Eurasian Studies, 9, 85–93.
• Kennan, G. F. (1948, May 4). Policy Planning Staff Memorandum, National Archives, RG 273, Records of the National Security Council, NSC 10/2, Retrieved from http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/johnson/65ciafounding3.htm
• Layne, C. (1993). “The unipolar illusion: Why new great powers will rise”, International Security, 17(4), 5-51.
• Lukin, A. (2020). The Russia–China entente and it's future. International Politics, 58, 363-380, https://doi.org.10.1057/s41311-020-00251-7
• Macaes, B. (2018). The dawn of Eurasia: On the trail of the new world order. New York: Penguin Random House.
• Matisek, J. W. (2017). Shades of gray deterrence: Issues of fighting in the gray zone. Journal of Strategic Security, 10(3), 1-26, http://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.10.3.1589
• Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The tragedy of great power politics. New York: W.W. Norton.
• Mearsheimer, J. J. (2019). Bound to fail: the rise and fall of the liberal international order. International Security, 43(4), 7–50, https://doi.org.10.1162/ISEC_a_00342 Miller, A. D. (2013, April 16). How geography explains the United States. Foreign Policy, Retrieved from https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/04/16/how-geography-explains-the-united-states/
• Montgomery, E. B. (2020) Primacy and punishment: US grand strategy, maritime power, and military options to manage decline, Security Studies, 29:4, 769-796, http://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2020.1811463
• Munich Security Conference Report. (2020, February 14-16). 56th Munich Security Conference Web Site, Retrieved from https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2020/speeches/
• NATO. (2020, November 25). NATO 2030: United for a New Era Analysis and Recommendations of the Reflection Group Appointed by the NATO Secretary General. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/12/ pdf/201201-Reflection-Group-Final-Report-Uni.pdf
• North Atlantic Council. (2014, September 05). NATO Wales summit declaration. NATO, Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_ 112964.htm
• Office of the Director of US National Intelligence. (2017, January). Global trends: paradox of progress. National Intelligence Council, Washington, D.C.
• Office of the US Trade Representative. (2021). U.S.-China Trade Facts. Retrieved from https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china
• O'Rourke, R. (2020, August 25). Renewed great power competition: implications for defense-issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service, Report No.43838, Version 62, Retrieved from https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R43838
• Quero, J. (2020). China’s impact on the Middle East and North Africa’s regional order: unfolding regional effects of challenging the global order. Contemporary Arab Affairs, 13(1), 86-110, https://doi.org.10.1525/caa.2020.13.1.86
• Richey, M. (2019). US-led alliances and contemporary international security disorder: comparative responses of the Transatlantic and Asia-Pacific alliance systems. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 6(3), 275-98, https://doi.org.10.1177/ 2347797019886690
• Shea, J. (2019). NATO in the era of global complexity. In T. Valasek (Ed.) New Perspectives on Shared Security: NATO’s Next 70 Years, (pp. 19-23). Brussels, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publications.
• Silove, N. (2016). The pivot before the pivot: U.S. strategy to preserve the power balance in Asia. International Security, 40(4), 45–88, https://doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_0023822-23
• Statista. (2021). Value of Russian trade in goods with China from 2007 to 2020. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1003171/russia-value-of-trade-in-goods-with-china/
• Stoltenberg, J. (2021, June 14). Doorstep statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of the Brussels Summit. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_184960.htm
• Swedish Institute of International Peace (SIPRI). (2021, April). Military Expenditure Database, Retrieved from https://www.sipri.org/research/armament-and-disarmament/arms-and-military-expenditure/military-expenditure
• The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. (2019, July). China’s national defense in the new era, 1st ed., ISBN 978-7-119-11925-0, Beijing, Foreign Languages Press, Retrieved from http://english.www.gov.cn/ archive/whitepaper
• The White House. (2017, December). National security strategy of the United States of America. Washington, D.C.
• Trenin, D. (2019, May 05). China, Russia, and the United States contest a new world order. East Asia Forum, Retrieved from https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2019/05/05/ china-russia-and-the-united-states-contest-a-new-world-order/
• U.S. Department of Defense. (2018a, January). Summary of the 2018 national defense strategy of the United States of America: sharpening the American military’s competitive edge. Washington D.C.
• U.S. Department of Defense. (2018b, December). Assessment on U.S. defense implications of China’s expanding global access. Washington D.C. Retrieved from https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jan/14/2002079292/-1/-1/1/EXPANDING-GLOBAL -ACCESS-REPORT-FINAL.PDF
• Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
• World Bank. (2020). GDP per capita (current US$). Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
• Wu, X. (2020). Technology, power, and uncontrolled great power strategic competition between China and the United States. International Strategy Review, 2, 99-119, https://doi.org.10.1007/s42533-020-00040-0U.S.
• Zhao S. (2021). The US-China rivalry in the emerging bipolar world: Hostility, alignment, and power balance, Journal of Contemporary China, https://doi:10.1080/10670564.2021.1945733