Forecasting of monthly electricity generation from the conventional and renewable resources following the corona virus pandemic in Turkey

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 3, 420 - 435, 30.09.2022

Erol Kurt , Reşat Kasap , Kayhan Çelik

https://doi.org/10.30521/jes.1106313

Abstract

In the present paper, a forecasting study on the monthly electricity generation of Türkiye from the conventional and renewable resources is performed. The effect of the CoVid-19 pandemic on the sector has been considered. For this aim, the trend before the pandemic has been initially considered and later the post-pandemic situation has been handled. It has been observed that the electricity generation supply/demand mechanism changes drastically compared to the pre- and post-pandemic cases. The rate of the generation from the renewable resources especially shows a sharp variation compared to the rates from the fossil fuels. According to the forecasting scenario, in 2021, the electricity generation shows different attitudes with regard to the resources used. In 2022, especially increasing trends are expected for wind, biogas, natural gas, imported coal and fuel oil, whereas diesel and mineral coal are expected to be decreased in Türkiye.

Keywords

Covid19 pandemic, Energy Generation, Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Time Series Modeling (SARIMA)

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