BEKLENEN İSTANBUL DEPREMİNİN İSTANBUL EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİNİN İNCELENMESİ: BİR SİSTEM DİNAMİĞİ MODELİ

Year 2023, , 1410 - 1423, 30.12.2023

Çağla Alparslan , Müjgan Bilge Eriş , Melis Almula Karadayı , Ayla Alkan , Duygun Fatih Demirel , Eylül Sezer

https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.1245379

Abstract

Gerek barındırdığı nüfus gerekse hemen hemen her sektörde lider konumunda olması İstanbul’u ekonomik ve demografik açıdan Türkiye’nin en önemli ili kılmaktadır. Kenti etkileyecek şiddetli bir depremin yol açacağı can kaybı ve maddi hasar ile kısa ve uzun vadeli ekonomik etkiler kamuoyu gündemini neredeyse her gün meşgul etmektedir. Konunun önemi bu derece açık olmakla birlikte olası bir depremin ekonomik etkileri hakkında uzman görüşü dışında bilimsel yöntemlere dayalı bir çalışma mevcut değildir. Bu çalışmada olası İstanbul depreminin İstanbul ekonomisi üzerindeki etkileri sistem dinamiği yaklaşımına dayalı bir benzetim modeli ile incelenmektedir. Önerilen model temel olarak üretim ve harcama yöntemiyle gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH) hesaplanmasında kullanılan değişkenlerin aralarındaki karmaşık ve çok yönlü nedensellik ilişkilerini yansıtmaktadır. Bu değişkenler temel olarak üretim tüketim dengesi, yurtiçi talep, ithalat, ihracat, sektör büyüklükleri, deprem sonrası toparlanma süresi gibi başlıkları ifade etmektedir. Oluşturulan temel model üzerine senaryo analizleri gerçekleştirilmiş, farklı şiddetlerde meydana gelebilecek depremlerin ekonomik etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre depremin ardından toparlanmanın uzun süreceği sektörler olmakla birlikte yoğun talebin bulunduğu sektörlerde üretim-tüketim dengesinin yeniden sağlanmasının çok uzun sürmemesi beklenmektedir. Bilindiği kadarıyla bu çalışma literatürde sistem dinamiği yaklaşımıyla afet ekonomisi konusunu birleştiren ilk çalışmadır.

Keywords

Deprem, Sistem Dinamiği, Stok Akış Modeli, Kavramsal Döngü Modeli, Afet Ekonomisi.

Supporting Institution

TÜBİTAK 1001 - Deprem Araştırmaları Özel Çağrısı

Project Number

121K925

Thanks

Bu çalışma TÜBİTAK Araştırma Destek Programları Başkanlığı tarafından 121K925 nolu proje kapsamında desteklenmiştir.

INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTS OF THE EXPECTED ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE ON THE ECONOMY OF ISTANBUL: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

Abstract

Both its population and its leading position in almost every sector make Istanbul the most important city in Turkey in terms of economy and demographics. The loss of life and property damage caused by a severe earthquake that will affect the city and its short and long-term economic impacts occupy the public agenda almost every day. Although the importance of the subject is so clear, there is no study based on scientific methods about the economic effects of a possible earthquake except expert opinions. In this study, the effects of a possible Istanbul earthquake on the economy of Istanbul are examined with a simulation model based on the system dynamics approach. The proposed model basically reflects the complex and multidimensional causalities between the variables used in the calculation of gross domestic product (GDP) by production and expenditure methods. These variables basically refer to topics such as production- consumption balance, domestic demand, imports, exports, sector sizes, recovery time after the earthquake. Scenario analysis are performed on the base model, and the economic effects of earthquakes that may occur in different intensities are analyzed. According to the results obtained, although there are sectors where recovery will take a long time after the earthquake, it is expected that it will not take long for the production-consumption balance to be restored in sectors with high demand. To the best of our knowledge this study is the first attempt to integrate system dynamics with disaster economics.

Keywords

Earthquake, System Dynamics, Stock-Flow Model, Causal Loop Model, Disaster Economics

Project Number

121K925

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