AN INVESTIGATION ON MODELING OF DALAMAN STREAM FLOWS BY USING WAVE-ANFIS

Year 2018, , 56 - 63, 26.03.2018

Dilek Taylan

https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.380158

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The object of the study is to investigate a flow estimation
model by using a combination of Wavelet Transform Technique (W) and Adaptive Neural
Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Many models has been applied in recent
years for the prediction of Dalaman Stream flow in the south of Turkey. One of
these studies was AR-ANFIS models which developed by Taylan (2008), its
training data set was extended with synthetic series produced by autoregressive
processes. In this study, W-ANFIS models were developed with sub-series
generated by wavelet analysis by using extended training set of ANFIS models.  It is seen that increasing the number of
input data in training increases model performance. Compared with the developed
models, it has been shown that the W-ANFIS hybrid models have a better
predictive power than the AR-ANFIS models. Consequently, the W-ANFIS hybrid
model could be used successfully in predicting of flow.

Keywords

Dalaman Stream, Wavelet, ANFIS

DALGACIK-ADAPTIF AĞ TEMELLI BULANIK ÇIKARIM SISTEMLERI ILE DALAMAN ÇAYI AKIMLARININ MODELLENMESİ ÜZERİNE BİR ÇALIŞMA

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı Dalgacık analizi ile Adaptif Ağ Temelli
Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemini bir arada kullanarak bir akım tahmin modeli
geliştirmektir. Türkiye’nin güneyinde yer alan Dalaman Çayı akımlarının tahmini
için pek çok model uygulanmıştır. Bu çalışmalardan biri de Taylan (2008)
tarafından geliştirilen eğitim seti otoregresif süreçlerle üretilen sentetik
serilerle genişletilmiş AR-ANFIS modellerdir. Bu çalışmada,  ANFIS modellerinin eğitim seti dalgacık
analizi kullanılarak üretilen alt serilerle genişletilerek W-ANFIS modeller
geliştirilmiştir. Girdi veri setlerinin genişletilmesinin model performansını
artırdığı görülmüştür. Geliştirilen modeller karşılaştırıldığında, W-ANFIS
hibrit modellerinin AR-ANFIS modellerinden daha iyi bir tahmin yeteniğine sahip
oldukları gösterilmiştir. Sonuç olarak W-ANFIS hibrit modeli akım tahmininde
başarı ile kullanılabilir. 

Keywords

Dalaman Çayı, Dalgacık Analizi, Adaptif Ağ Temelli Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi

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