Do Tourism Revenues Effects Financial and Real Sector in Turkey?

Year 2021, Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 116 - 130, 20.10.2021

Niyaz Berk , Dina Çakmur Yıldırtan , Nadira Seyıdova

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the tourism sector, finance sector and real sector. For this purpose, total travel revenues (TSG), average travel expenditures per person (KBOH), total travel expenses (TSH), CPI-based real effective exchange rate (TUFEKUR), PPI based real effective exchange rate (UFEKUR), BIST100 closing index (BIST100) and manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate (KKO) variables were analyzed. The variables included in the analysis cover the period 2007-2018 with monthly frequency. Data were analyzed with the E-11 program and data taked from the Central Bank of Turkey. According to the results of the cointegration test, it can be said that the series have long-term balance and cointegration. The results of the causality test show that there is a casual relationship from TSH, KKO, KBOH, BIST100 variables to TSG, and from TSG, TUFEKUR, UFEKUR, KBOH, BIST100 variables to the TSH variable. However, it has been determined that there is both one-way and two-way causality relationships among other variables.

Keywords

Tourism Revenues, Causality, Cointegration, Industrial Growth, Tourism Revenues, Causality, Cointegration, Industrial Growth

Do Tourism Revenues Effects Financial and Real Sector in Turkey?

Abstract

Bu çalışma, turizm sektörü, finans sektürü ve reel sektör arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Bu amaçla toplam seyahat gelirleri (TSG), kişi başı ortalama seyahat giderleri (KBOH), toplam seyahat harcamaları (TSH), TÜFE bazlı reel efektif döviz kuru (TUFEKUR), ÜFE bazlı reel efektif döviz kuru (UFEKUR), BIST100 kapanış endeksi (BIST100) ve imalat sanayi kapasite kullanım oranı (KKO) değişkenleri analiz edilmiştir. Analize dahil edilen değişkenler aylık frekans ile 2007-2018 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Veriler Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası'ndan alınarak E-views 11 programı ile analiz edilmiştir. Eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre serilerin uzun vadede dengede oldukları ve birlikte hareket ettikleri söylenebilir. Nedensellik testinin sonuçları ise TSH, KKO, KBOH, BIST100 değişkenlerinden TSG’e doğru, TSG, TUFEKUR, UFEKUR, KBOH, BIST100 değişkenlerinden TSH değişkenine doğru ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte diğer değişkenler arasında da hem tek hem de çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Turizm Gelirleri, Nedensellik, Eşbütünleşme, Endüstriyel Büyüme., Turizm Gelirleri, Nedensellik, Eşbütünleşme, Endüstriyel Büyüme.

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