Comparison of Mann-Kendall Trend Test and Innovative Methods: Beşkonak Monthly Flow Data Example

Year 2024, , 1 - 12, 30.06.2024

Kemal Saplıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.60093/jiciviltech.1487245

Abstract

Today, there are many methods available to determine trends with different data sets. In this study, a comparison was made between Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis, which is frequently used in trend analysis studies, and Innovative Trend Analysis (YEÇ), which has become popular in recent years, and Enhanced Visualization for Innovative Trend Analysis (GG-YEÇ). Additionally, the Wilcoxon Trend Test in Combination with Scatter Diagram (SDKWTT), which has been proposed in recent years, is included in this comparison. For this purpose, 74-year monthly flow data for the water years 1942–2015, taken from the Beşkonak flow observation station of the Köprüçay River in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey, was used. The trends of each month and annual average values were compared. Thus, a comparison of 13 different trend tests was made. However, when the homogeneity test was performed, it was determined that the data for August and October were not homogeneous within the 95% confidence interval, and the data for these months were not used in comparison. As a result of the study, it was determined that there were no major differences between the methods; all tests were appropriate to use, but using them together increased reliability.

Keywords

Trend Analysis, Mann-Kendall, Innovative Trend Test, Wilcoxon Trend Test in Combination with Scatter Diagram, Beşkonak

Mann-Kendall Trend Testi ile Yenilikçi Yöntemlerin Kıyaslanması: Beşkonak Aylık Akım Verileri Örneği

Abstract

Günümüzde farklı veri setleri ile trendlerin belirlenmesi için pek çok yöntem mevcuttur. Bu çalışmada trend analizi çalışmalarında sıklıkla kullanılan Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analizi ile son yıllarda popüler hale gelmiş olan Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi (YEÇ), Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi için Geliştirilmiş Görselleştirme (GG-YEÇ) kıyaslaması yapılmıştır. Ayrıca son yıllarda önerilen Saçılım Diyagramı ile Kombinasyonlu Wilcoxon Trend Testide (SDKWTT) bu karşılaştırmaya dahil edilmiştir. Bu amaçla Türkiye’nin Akdeniz Bölgesinde yer alan Köprüçay nehrine ait Beşkonak akım gözlem istasyonundan alınan 1942-2015 su yıllarına ait 74 yıllık aylık akım verisi kullanılmıştır. Her ay kendi içinde ve yıllık ortalama değerlerin trendleri karşılaştırılmıştır. Bu nedenle 13 farklı trend testinin kıyaslaması yapılmıştır. Ancak homojenlik testi yapıldığında Ağustos ve Ekim ayları verilerinin % 95güven aralığında homojen olmadığı tespit edilmiş ve bu aylara ait veriler kıyaslamada kullanılmamıştır. Çalışma sonucunda yöntemler arasında çok büyük farklar olmadığı testlerin tamamının kullanımının uygun olduğu, ancak birlikte kullanılmalarının güvenilirliği arttırdığı tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Trend Analizi, Mann-Kendall, Yenilikçi Trend Testi, Saçılım Diyagramı ile Kombinasyonlu Wilcoxon Trend Testi, Beşkonak

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