İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi Büyüme Oynaklığını Etkiler mi? Ampirik Bir Analiz

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 113 - 135, 30.11.2019

Barbaros Guneri

Öz

Bu çalışma, güncel literatürü izleyerek, teorik
bağlantıları tartışarak ve ampirik bir analiz uygulayarak, ihracat
çeşitlendirmesi ve büyüme oynaklığı arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir.
Farklı ihracat çeşitliliği endeksleri, çok sayıda ülke, çeşitli kontrol
değişkenleri ve dinamik panel veri metodolojisi kullanan ampirik model,
çeşitlendirmenin oynaklık üzerindeki etkileri konusunda güçlü kanıtlar
sunmaktadır. Sonuçlar göstermektedir ki, ihracat sepetleri çeşitli olan
ülkeler, daha düşük büyüme oynaklığına maruz kalmaktadır. Çeşitlilik endeksleri
acısından, yoğun ticaret (daha dengeli ihracat sepeti) oynaklık üzerinde yaygın
ticaret’e (ihraç yapan firma sayısı) göre daha etkilidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Büyüme Oynaklığı, İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi

Does Export Diversification Lower Growth Volatility? An Empirical Analysis

Öz

This
paper, following the recent literature, discussing about the theoretical
connections, and applying an empirical analysis, studies the relationship
between export diversification and growth volatility. Using several export
diversification indices, a large number of countries, various control variables
and dynamic panel data methodology, the empirical model present strong evidence
on the effects of diversification on volatility. The results show that
countries with a diversified export basket experience lower growth volatility.
Among diversification indices, intensive margin (more balanced basket of
exports) is found to have a stronger negative impact on volatility, rather than
extensive margin (number of firms exporting). 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Growth Volatility, Export Diversification

Kaynakça

• Acemoglu, D., & Zilibotti, F. (1997). Was Prometheus unbound by chance? Risk, diversification, and growth. Journal of political economy, 105(4), 709-751.
• Agosin, M. R., Alvarez, R., & Bravo‐Ortega, C. (2012). Determinants of export diversification around the world: 1962–2000. The World Economy, 35(3), 295-315.
• Amurgo-Pacheco, A., & Pierola, M. D. (2008). Patterns of export diversification in developing countries: intensive and extensive margins. The World Bank.
• Anbarci, N., Hill, J., & Kirmanoglu, H. (2011). Institutions and growth volatility. Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, 30(2), 233-252.
• Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 58(2), 277-297.
• Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.
• Aizenman, J., & Marion, N. (1999). Volatility and investment: interpreting evidence from developing countries. Economica, 66(262), 157-1179.
• Bacchetta, M., Jansen, M., Piermartini, R., & Amurgo-Pacheco, R. (2007). Export Diversification as an Absorber of External Shocks. World Trade Organization, Mimeo.
• Bejan, M., (2006) Trade Openness and Output Volatility,MPRA Paper 2759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
• Blanchard, O., & Simon, J. (2001). The long and large decline in US output volatility. Brookings papers on economic activity, 2001(1), 135-174.
• Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
• Bond, S., Hoeffler, A., & Temple, J. (2001). GMM estimation of empirical growth models. Discussion Paper No. 2048, Centre for Economic Policy Research
• Bugamelli, M., & Paterno, F. (2011). Output growth volatility and remittances. Economica, 78(311), 480-500.
• Cadot, O., Carrère, C., & Strauss-Kahn, V. (2011). Export diversification: what's behind the hump?. Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), 590-605.
• Ćorić, B., & Pugh, G. (2013). Foreign direct investment and output growth volatility: A worldwide analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 25, 260-271.
• Easterly, W., Islam, R., Stiglitz, J. (2000). Explaining Growth Volatility. World Bank Working Paper, 04/13.
• Felipe, J., Kumar, U., & Abdon, A. (2010). As you sow so shall you reap: from capabilities to opportunities. Levy Economics Institute Working Paper No. 613 (September 2010). Levy Institute of Bard College, New York.
• Felix, A. (2012). Industrial diversity, growth, and volatility in the seven states of the Tenth District. Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 55.
• Fogli, A., & Perri, F. (2015). Macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances. Journal of Monetary Economics, 69, 1-15.
• Grydaki, M., & Fountas, S. (2009). Exchange rate volatility and output volatility: a theoretical approach. Review of International Economics, 17(3), 552-569.
• Haddad, M., Lim, J. J., Pancaro, C., & Saborowski, C. (2013). Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 46(2), 765-790.
• Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A., & Yildirim, M. A. (2014). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. Mit Press.
• Hesse, H. (2008). ‘Export Diversification and Economic Growth’. Working Paper No. 21 Washington, DC World Bank: Commission on Growth and Development.
• Hirsch, S., & Lev, B. (1971). Sales stabilization through export diversification. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 270-277.
• International Monetary Fund, IMF (2014). Sustaining long-run growth and macroeconomic stability in low-income countries—the role of structural transformation and diversification.
• Irvine, F. O., & Schuh, S. (2005). Inventory investment and output volatility. International Journal of Production Economics, 93, 75-86.
• Jansen, M. (2004). Income volatility in small and developing economies: export concentration matters (No. 3). WTO Discussion Paper.
• Juvenal, L., & Santos Monteiro, P. (2013). Export market diversification and productivity improvements: theory and evidence from Argentinean firms. FRB of St. Louis Working Paper
• Kartalciklar, B. (2016). Empirical Essays on Trade Liberalization and Export Diversification (Doctoral dissertation, University of Southern California).
• Koren, M., & Tenreyro, S. (2007). Volatility and development. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(1), 243-287.
• Kose, M. A., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K., & Wei, S. J. (2009). Financial globalization: a reappraisal. IMF Staff papers, 56(1), 8-62.
• Koskela, E., & Viren, M. (2003). Government size and output volatility: new international evidence (No. 857). ETLA Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA).
• Krebs, T., Krishna, P., & Maloney, W. (2005). Trade policy, income risk, and welfare. The World Bank.
• McIntyre, A., Li, M. X., Wang, K., & Yun, H. (2018). Economic Benefits of Export Diversification in Small States. International Monetary Fund.
• Mirdala, R., Svrceková, A., & Semancıková, J. (2015). On the relationship between financial integration, financial liberalization and macroeconomic volatility. MPRA Paper, (66143).
• Parteka, A., & Tamberi, M. (2013). What determines export diversification in the development process? Empirical assessment. The World Economy, 36(6), 807-826.
• Prebisch, R. (1950). The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems. Economic Commission for Latin America, United Nations Department of Economic Affairs.
• Pisani-Ferry, J., Debrun, M. X., & Sapir, A. (2008). Government size and output volatility: should we forsake automatic stabilization? (No. 8-122). International Monetary Fund.
• Ramey, G., & Ramey, V. A. (1994). Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth (No. w4959). National bureau of economic research.
• Rodrik, D. (2014). The past, present, and future of economic growth. Challenge, 57(3), 5-39.
• Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The stata journal, 9(1), 86-136.
• Singer, H. (1950). US Foreign Investment in Underdeveloped Areas: The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries. American Economic Review, 473-485.
• Slade, M. E. (2013). Investment and uncertainty with time to build: Evidence from US copper mining. manuscript. UBC.
• Yalta, A. Y., & Yalta, A. T. (2012). Does financial liberalization decrease capital flight? A panel causality analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 22(1), 92-100.
• Yang, B. (2008). Does democracy lower growth volatility? A dynamic panel analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(1), 562-574.
• Yildirim, M. (2014). Diversifying growth in light of economic complexity. Brookings Blum Roundtable 2014. Session VI: where can enclave projects take us? Harvard University. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/session-6-enclaves-yildirim_post-final.pdf