Abstract
Accomodation is the main area of tourism industry. In order to determine man, machine and material reguirement, right material must be on the right place on the right time. Man and material requirements are depend on room demand. Main aim of this study is to forecast hotel room demand for a five stars and international chain hotel that has been established in Ankara. In order to forecast the room demand, ARIMA, one of the most popular advanced Box-Jenkins Model, has been used. The reason of selecting this model is the consideration of time series with probabilistic and stochastic characteristics by ARIMA and performance of it for forecasts in short time periods. While analyzing, it is seen that the serie has no trend and seasonal effect but has a autocorelation. After analyses on first order differentiated data ARIMA (2,1,1) model has been found. Test statistics for models with %95 confidence interval are; AR(1) for p=0, AR(2) for p=0.01 ve MA (1) for p=0. The validity of the model, ARIMA (2,1,1) has been evaluated by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). StatGraphics 16.2 and Eviews 8 has been used for analyses. After determining model, model parameters has been coded in C #. The coded model has been used as an input in a decision support system which has been used for material reguirement planning for a hotel and stored in a model base. Main role of this model is to determine master production scheduling for hotel room demand forecast in decision support system.
Details
| Journal Section | Articles |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | January 15, 2016 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2015 Volume: 2 Issue: 4 |
Journal of Management,
Marketing and Logistics (JMML) is a scientific, academic, double blind peer-reviewed,
quarterly and open-access online journal. The journal publishes four issues a year. The issuing
months are March, June, September and December. The publication languages
of the Journal are English and Turkish. JMML aims to provide a research source
for all practitioners, policy makers, professionals and researchers working in
the areas of management, marketing, logistics, supply chain management,
international trade. The editor in chief of JMML invites all manuscripts that
cover theoretical and/or applied researches on topics related to the interest
areas of the Journal. JMML charges no submission or publication fee.
Ethics Policy - JMML applies the standards of Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE). JMML is committed to the academic community ensuring ethics and quality of manuscripts in publications. Plagiarism is strictly forbidden and the manuscripts found to be plagiarized will not be accepted or if published will be removed from the publication. Authors must certify that their manuscripts are their original work. Plagiarism, duplicate, data fabrication and redundant publications are forbidden. The manuscripts are subject to plagiarism check by iThenticate or similar. All manuscript submissions must provide a similarity report (up to 15% excluding quotes, bibliography, abstract, method).
Open Access - All research articles published in PressAcademia Journals are fully open access; immediately freely available to read, download and share. Articles are published under the terms of a Creative Commons license which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Open access is a property of individual works, not necessarily journals or publishers. Community standards, rather than copyright law, will continue to provide the mechanism for enforcement of proper attribution and responsible use of the published work, as they do now.